** 29-Mar-2022 World View: Russia Ukraine scenario
Navigator wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:58 am
> Knew you would disagree.
> This is the conventional opinion, and, as I have stated before, I
> actually hope that you are right.
> However, I think that the Russians will make the "post Winter War"
> adjustments and begin a national militarization and mass
> mobilization. Right now they are the army of 1939/40 that
> couldn't beat Finland. Next year they could, if they try hard, be
> the Army of 1941/42. (which still had massive problems, but was
> able to deal with the most competent army the world has yet seen)
> Personally, I don't see Europe getting off of the hook so easily
> or so quickly.
Assuming your analysis is correct, we might speculate on what
the scenario will be in the next few weeks.
Today, there is increasing worldwide delusional hope and euphoria
around the so-called Russia-Ukraine "peace talk" taking place in
Istanbul. Both the Russian and Turkish governments says that they're
making "significant progress," so I guess the war should be over any
day now, and we can go back to worrying full time about transgender
issues and Will Smith's slap. However, we have to assume that
anything the Russians and Turks say are cynical self-serving lies.
It's pretty clear that the war is being fought over territory, and
neither side will agree to "peace" without control of Donbas and
Crimea. Russia's army has been losing the war to Ukraine's army, and
the current situation is unsustainable for Russia. So we have to
assume that Russia will turn to a national militarization and mass
mobilization, as you suggest. Many analysts suggest that madman Putin
go further and will turn to chemical or tactical nuclear weapons if he
becomes sufficiently desperate. This is also consistent with your
analysis.
The whole "Regeneracy" concept in generational theory is that certain
kinds of unexpected events can cause rapid changes in public opinion.
We've already been seeing this following Russia's totally unexpected
invasion of Ukraine, which caused European countries to put political
differences aside and unite against Russia.
There will be additional regeneracy events, and we can speculate what
they might be. My guess is that the next regeneracy event will be a
major military victory by Russia in Ukraine. This might be total
destruction of Mariupol or capture of Kiev or something similar. The
victory will have to be sufficiently devastating, if it's to advance
the Regeneracy.
When that happens, a lot of the dithering on the part of America and
Europe will be short-circuited, and demands for further support for
Ukraine will be met. This could be, for example, cruise missiles
launched from European bases, targeting Russia's military.
There will be additional regeneracy events after that, with each one
bringing Europe closer to full-scale war, possibly nuclear war.
That would fit your analysis. However, I have to say that I still
have my doubts how well the Russian army will perform outside of
Russia. As I've previously said, Russia's army in the past has done
well defending inside of Russia, but there is no clear history of
successful offensive expeditionary wars that I'm aware of.
