Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Now lets look at NATO.

Remember that Ukraine has 23 active duty brigades. Lets compare that to the big NATO powers.

France has 8. Germany has 8. Poland has 12. UK has 6. Other countries have 1 or 2, the exception being Romania, which has 10, but their equipment and standards are pretty low, so maybe worth 4 of western NATO. The Italians have another 9, but I have some concerns about them too.

The point is that NATO has roughly 1.5 to 2 times the active duty strength of the Ukraine. Plus, I believe they will sit on their hind quarters for the most part while the Russians mobilize and get ready. And, while the Ukrainian territorials were prepared for the war, NATO territorial units are NOT (Poland maybe being the exception).

Also, if you think Russian youth would be unmotivated in war, think about the youth in Germany and France. Not a lot of nationalistic fervor and self-sacrifice come to mind. NATO countries are predominantly older people too.

Poles will fight the Russians, as will Finns and many Brits. Past that, the "national will" of most NATO countries would be questionable. Including Spain.

The Iraqi army was huge and battle hardened, but it folded almost instantly in 2003.

Look at the faces of many of the Russian troops, they are Mongolian or other ethnic minorities. Most of the "Russian" dead are "cossacks", mongrels from outer regions. Almost 30,000 dead Russian soldiers by recent count. On Telegram, angry Russians complain that the oligarchs and the children of Putin's cronies children have all stayed out of the fighting. The rich offspring of the crooks and thieves live luxurious lives and still show off on social media, though many of their accounts have now been deleted. Long haired sons of rich Russians still vacation in France while impoverished Mongolians are killed in Ukraine. If you can read Russian, you will see the anger for yourself. Even if the rich ones have their heads shaved and wear a uniform, they will not fight, they will be kept far from death and injury. Russians know this. Sanctions will be felt when the shelves are empty of Western goods. Russian products, even Russian cola, is substandard. Young Russians have never known the Soviet life. They are in for a shock.

[Navigator]

Look at the faces of many of the Russian troops, they are Mongolian or other ethnic minorities. Most of the "Russian" dead are "cossacks", mongrels from outer regions. Almost 30,000 dead Russian soldiers by recent count. On Telegram, angry Russians complain that the oligarchs and the children of Putin's cronies children have all stayed out of the fighting. The rich offspring of the crooks and thieves live luxurious lives and still show off on social media, though many of their accounts have now been deleted. Long haired sons of rich Russians still vacation in France while impoverished Mongolians are killed in Ukraine. If you can read Russian, you will see the anger for yourself. Even if the rich ones have their heads shaved and wear a uniform, they will not fight, they will be kept far from death and injury. Russians know this. Sanctions will be felt when the shelves are empty of Western goods. Russian products, even Russian cola, is substandard. Young Russians have never known the Soviet life. They are in for a shock.

For more than a hundred years the best troops in the Russian/Soviet armies have been ethically non-Russian. The best units in WW1 were the Siberians and Turkistanis. Other elite units are Cossack and other non-Russians.

I have heard this argument plenty of times before. It just doesn't hold up to the historical record.

As for the elites, few countries have these people in combat. Very few in Russia have the means to live like the oligarchs.

In the end the Russian Army (and I believe the Chinese Army) will rebel against their masters, and that is how WW3 will end.

[thomasglee]

Now lets look at NATO.

Remember that Ukraine has 23 active duty brigades. Lets compare that to the big NATO powers.

France has 8. Germany has 8. Poland has 12. UK has 6. Other countries have 1 or 2, the exception being Romania, which has 10, but their equipment and standards are pretty low, so maybe worth 4 of western NATO. The Italians have another 9, but I have some concerns about them too.

The point is that NATO has roughly 1.5 to 2 times the active duty strength of the Ukraine. Plus, I believe they will sit on their hind quarters for the most part while the Russians mobilize and get ready. And, while the Ukrainian territorials were prepared for the war, NATO territorial units are NOT (Poland maybe being the exception).

Also, if you think Russian youth would be unmotivated in war, think about the youth in Germany and France. Not a lot of nationalistic fervor and self-sacrifice come to mind. NATO countries are predominantly older people too.

Poles will fight the Russians, as will Finns and many Brits. Past that, the "national will" of most NATO countries would be questionable. Including Spain.

The Iraqi army was huge and battle hardened, but it folded almost instantly in 2003.

Look at the faces of many of the Russian troops, they are Mongolian or other ethnic minorities. Most of the "Russian" dead are "cossacks", mongrels from outer regions. Almost 30,000 dead Russian soldiers by recent count. On Telegram, angry Russians complain that the oligarchs and the children of Putin's cronies children have all stayed out of the fighting. The rich offspring of the crooks and thieves live luxurious lives and still show off on social media, though many of their accounts have now been deleted. Long haired sons of rich Russians still vacation in France while impoverished Mongolians are killed in Ukraine. If you can read Russian, you will see the anger for yourself. Even if the rich ones have their heads shaved and wear a uniform, they will not fight, they will be kept far from death and injury. Russians know this. Sanctions will be felt when the shelves are empty of Western goods. Russian products, even Russian cola, is substandard. Young Russians have never known the Soviet life. They are in for a shock.

The Iraqi military was decimated during the first Gulf War and never recovered. Really bad example.

[Guest]

Now lets look at NATO.

Remember that Ukraine has 23 active duty brigades. Lets compare that to the big NATO powers.

France has 8. Germany has 8. Poland has 12. UK has 6. Other countries have 1 or 2, the exception being Romania, which has 10, but their equipment and standards are pretty low, so maybe worth 4 of western NATO. The Italians have another 9, but I have some concerns about them too.

The point is that NATO has roughly 1.5 to 2 times the active duty strength of the Ukraine. Plus, I believe they will sit on their hind quarters for the most part while the Russians mobilize and get ready. And, while the Ukrainian territorials were prepared for the war, NATO territorial units are NOT (Poland maybe being the exception).

Also, if you think Russian youth would be unmotivated in war, think about the youth in Germany and France. Not a lot of nationalistic fervor and self-sacrifice come to mind. NATO countries are predominantly older people too.

Poles will fight the Russians, as will Finns and many Brits. Past that, the "national will" of most NATO countries would be questionable. Including Spain.

The Iraqi army was huge and battle hardened, but it folded almost instantly in 2003.

Look at the faces of many of the Russian troops, they are Mongolian or other ethnic minorities. Most of the "Russian" dead are "cossacks", mongrels from outer regions. Almost 30,000 dead Russian soldiers by recent count. On Telegram, angry Russians complain that the oligarchs and the children of Putin's cronies children have all stayed out of the fighting. The rich offspring of the crooks and thieves live luxurious lives and still show off on social media, though many of their accounts have now been deleted. Long haired sons of rich Russians still vacation in France while impoverished Mongolians are killed in Ukraine. If you can read Russian, you will see the anger for yourself. Even if the rich ones have their heads shaved and wear a uniform, they will not fight, they will be kept far from death and injury. Russians know this. Sanctions will be felt when the shelves are empty of Western goods. Russian products, even Russian cola, is substandard. Young Russians have never known the Soviet life. They are in for a shock.

The Iraqi military was decimated during the first Gulf War and never recovered. Really bad example.

The Russian army has been decimated in Ukraine. It has lost much of its special forces and airborne troops as well as some naval ships, including one of it's flag ships. the airforce has lost its many of its advanced jet fighters and best pilots. It has endured hundreds of destroyed tanks and thousands of destroyed armored fighting vehicles. It has also lost a lot of its trucks.

Sanctions for the last 8 years have also meant that Russia has not been able to upgrade its navy (which is paltry beyond its nuclear submarines). The armed forces have not modernized as planned because of massive levels of theft and corruption.

Russia has nuclear weapons, but using them would lead to a nuclear war, and Russians don't want to die.

The Russian army that would enter NATO lands would be made up of conscripts and aged and mostly unfit retired soldiers having already suffered a massive loss of armor and transportation ability; much the way the Iraqi army looked in 2003.

A really good example.

[Guest]

Look at the faces of many of the Russian troops, they are Mongolian or other ethnic minorities. Most of the "Russian" dead are "cossacks", mongrels from outer regions. Almost 30,000 dead Russian soldiers by recent count. On Telegram, angry Russians complain that the oligarchs and the children of Putin's cronies children have all stayed out of the fighting. The rich offspring of the crooks and thieves live luxurious lives and still show off on social media, though many of their accounts have now been deleted. Long haired sons of rich Russians still vacation in France while impoverished Mongolians are killed in Ukraine. If you can read Russian, you will see the anger for yourself. Even if the rich ones have their heads shaved and wear a uniform, they will not fight, they will be kept far from death and injury. Russians know this. Sanctions will be felt when the shelves are empty of Western goods. Russian products, even Russian cola, is substandard. Young Russians have never known the Soviet life. They are in for a shock.

For more than a hundred years the best troops in the Russian/Soviet armies have been ethically non-Russian. The best units in WW1 were the Siberians and Turkistanis. Other elite units are Cossack and other non-Russians.

I have heard this argument plenty of times before. It just doesn't hold up to the historical record.

As for the elites, few countries have these people in combat. Very few in Russia have the means to live like the oligarchs.

In the end the Russian Army (and I believe the Chinese Army) will rebel against their masters, and that is how WW3 will end.

I have heard this argument plenty of times before. It just doesn't hold up to the historical record.

In the First World War, the Russian army mutinied and Russia was defeated by the Germans and the Austrians in 1918. It was only Allied victory which restored much of that lost land to the Soviet Union. So, the historical record is against you. Look at the Cossack rebellions, many sprung out of wars. the Cossack were drafted to fight the Poles and grew weary of the heavy taxes and unending wars and deserted. They then rebelled and burned down Russia around them.

In the days of the Czars, the elite did fight in wars. A man was not a man unless he did fight on the front line. Now, with Putin, it is different.

No, the historical record says that ethnic tensions and public angry with the luxurious living of a few elites does matter. Stenka Razin ---Степа́н Тимофе́евич Ра́зин-- did not just fall out of the sky. It was anger that created these rebellions against Moscow.

You have arguments that were not true, navigator.

[Trevor]

I hear many people stating that Russia is doomed, that they have no hope to win this war. A couple months ago, the assumption was that Ukraine would collapse in a matter of days, as quickly or even faster than the Iraqi army did in 2003.

Sure, a Third World War is unthinkable to almost everyone today and many who do think in these terms, it's more in terms of the globalists, Agenda 21, and so on. However, both world wars were just as unthinkable until they broke out.

Russia's economy is far weaker than NATO's, even excluding the United States. However, they spend a lot more on their military in terms of GDP. Sure, they're facing a major struggle now, but they're already starting to learn and adapt from their earlier mistakes. It's not like Putin cares if he loses hundreds of thousands just to crush Ukraine.

This was true in the 1930s as well. Britain and France alone were stronger than Germany, let alone the United States and the Soviet Union. Logically, Germany should have been squashed like a bug within a few months, and should never have managed to get as far as they did.

But Britain and France did nothing to stop them. Churchill was one of the very few warning of Hitler's intentions. The man was a bastard in many ways, but we remember him fondly because he was right when almost everyone else was wrong. They couldn't believe, after the experience of the First World War, anyone would want to go through something like that again. Hitler began mobilizing for war almost as soon as he took power while Britain and France made no significant moves until 1938 and even then, it was half-hearted and controversial.

Even in 1939, Hitler could have been stopped had France and Britain launched an offensive into Western Germany. He'd devoted 90% of his strength to crushed Poland, leaving the western border almost undefended. Most of his generals thought he was out of his mind. By their own admission, if the Western Allies had attacked in force, Germany would have collapsed in a few weeks. He had his eastern flank secure and the Western Allies really, really didn't want to fight another war.

The Soviet Union didn't just sit on their hands. They actively supplied and funded Germany's war effort. Had it not been for the enormous amounts of raw materials they sent Germany, chiefly oil, Hitler could never have launched Operation Barbarossa. When planes were bombing Britain, they were fueled by Russian oil. He didn't have to worry about a two-front war until he was ready to crush his real enemy: the Soviet Union.

I expect Russia's going to lose in the end, but thanks to NATO making the same sorts of crucial mistakes they did in the 1930s, it's going to cost an enormous amount of blood and treasure. Putin's on the path he wants to be on despite all the bluster of offering a "graceful exit." Wilting toward his threats of using nuclear weapons only emboldens him. Diplomacy only works if both sides have peaceful intentions and he does not. Whatever he says about NATO expansion is an excuse and justifications toward his real goal: rebuilding the Russian Empire.

[Navigator]

In the First World War, the Russian army mutinied and Russia was defeated by the Germans and the Austrians in 1918. It was only Allied victory which restored much of that lost land to the Soviet Union. So, the historical record is against you. Look at the Cossack rebellions, many sprung out of wars. the Cossack were drafted to fight the Poles and grew weary of the heavy taxes and unending wars and deserted. They then rebelled and burned down Russia around them.

In the days of the Czars, the elite did fight in wars. A man was not a man unless he did fight on the front line. Now, with Putin, it is different.

No, the historical record says that ethnic tensions and public angry with the luxurious living of a few elites does matter. Stenka Razin ---Степа́н Тимофе́евич Ра́зин-- did not just fall out of the sky. It was anger that created these rebellions against Moscow.

You have arguments that were not true, navigator.

I was talking about the Russian Army of 1914, not 1917/8. Historically, the best Russian units (in both wars) were the Siberians, followed by the Cossacks/Turkmenistan/Khazakstan units. These are not ethnic Russians.

Eventually the current Russian Army will revolt, but it will take a while.

Conscript armies are what World Wars are fought with. The small professional armies, like the BEF in 1914, are quickly attrited away.

That doesn't mean that the Russian Army is in great shape right now. Quite to the contrary. But if Russia mobilizes and rapidly expands its army, while NATO doesn't, there will be big problems.

[Guest]

I hear many people stating that Russia is doomed, that they have no hope to win this war. A couple months ago, the assumption was that Ukraine would collapse in a matter of days, as quickly or even faster than the Iraqi army did in 2003.

Sure, a Third World War is unthinkable to almost everyone today and many who do think in these terms, it's more in terms of the globalists, Agenda 21, and so on. However, both world wars were just as unthinkable until they broke out.

Russia's economy is far weaker than NATO's, even excluding the United States. However, they spend a lot more on their military in terms of GDP. Sure, they're facing a major struggle now, but they're already starting to learn and adapt from their earlier mistakes. It's not like Putin cares if he loses hundreds of thousands just to crush Ukraine.

This was true in the 1930s as well. Britain and France alone were stronger than Germany, let alone the United States and the Soviet Union. Logically, Germany should have been squashed like a bug within a few months, and should never have managed to get as far as they did.

But Britain and France did nothing to stop them. Churchill was one of the very few warning of Hitler's intentions. The man was a bastard in many ways, but we remember him fondly because he was right when almost everyone else was wrong. They couldn't believe, after the experience of the First World War, anyone would want to go through something like that again. Hitler began mobilizing for war almost as soon as he took power while Britain and France made no significant moves until 1938 and even then, it was half-hearted and controversial.

Even in 1939, Hitler could have been stopped had France and Britain launched an offensive into Western Germany. He'd devoted 90% of his strength to crushed Poland, leaving the western border almost undefended. Most of his generals thought he was out of his mind. By their own admission, if the Western Allies had attacked in force, Germany would have collapsed in a few weeks. He had his eastern flank secure and the Western Allies really, really didn't want to fight another war.

The Soviet Union didn't just sit on their hands. They actively supplied and funded Germany's war effort. Had it not been for the enormous amounts of raw materials they sent Germany, chiefly oil, Hitler could never have launched Operation Barbarossa. When planes were bombing Britain, they were fueled by Russian oil. He didn't have to worry about a two-front war until he was ready to crush his real enemy: the Soviet Union.

I expect Russia's going to lose in the end, but thanks to NATO making the same sorts of crucial mistakes they did in the 1930s, it's going to cost an enormous amount of blood and treasure. Putin's on the path he wants to be on despite all the bluster of offering a "graceful exit." Wilting toward his threats of using nuclear weapons only emboldens him. Diplomacy only works if both sides have peaceful intentions and he does not. Whatever he says about NATO expansion is an excuse and justifications toward his real goal: rebuilding the Russian Empire.

One small detail, if I may. In the Second World War, Russians had large families, sometimes a dozen children. Today only the Muslims in Russia have large families. Most Russians have only ( I mean ethnic Russians),usually have no children or only one child. If you watch the funerals that are shown on television of young soldiers, many of them were the only son, or maybe only child. On Telegram, many Russians say that their only child was killed. They also say they did not know he was in Ukraine. I don't think this will go on for much longer. it is terrible to lose a son, but in 1945, at least 2-3 sons came home. Now, there is no one coming home. Unless it is in a cheap wooden coffin.

I have fought in one of Putin's wars.

[Tom Mazanec]

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