Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

You wrote at the beginning of the year that you expected Russia to destroy a hollowed out NATO and drive millions of refugees into Spain (Iberian peninsula). Do you still expect this to happen? The situation is in flux, but what do you think know?

I think the Russians are indeed planning to do much more.

None of us, Russians included, have yet to experience the dramatic economic downturn that is coming. This will greatly accelerate things.

I do not know how far the Russians will go, but Putin will have no qualms about spreading death and destruction in his attempt to become like Peter the Great.

[Trevor]

If Russia was doing half as well as they claimed to be, the conventional fighting would already be over and we'd be talking about an insurgency. Instead, they abandoned their effort to take Kiev and focused all their effort in the east of Ukraine. Much of the territory they currently occupy was taken in the initial stages of the war. Yes, they've taken Luhansk and some other terrain, but every inch has cost them dearly.

Ukraine's lost tens of thousands of troops, but so has Russia. Russia's relying on its massive amount of artillery because they still don't control the skies and even with the territory they have, their manpower is stretched thin. Something like a third of their active tanks have been lost and their reserves are mostly rusted hulks that would take months to prepare even under optimistic conditions. Both sides are having a hell of a time replacing their losses, marking an eerie parallel to the First World War. Foreign volunteers are remarking that this war is far more brutal than anything they faced in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Russia initially blundered with tactics and logistics, believing the operation would at most last a few weeks, similar to the two Gulf Wars. The fact this hasn't been the case doesn't mean they aren't learning and adapting. They took Lysychansk in a matter of days where Sievierodonetsk lasted for six weeks, so their capabilities have improved a lot.

Russia's fighting a total war with a peacetime military. We'd have a hell of a time replacing 30,000 losses in 4.5 months (with probably 3 times that many wounded) and our economy's far bigger. They're hiring mercenaries from the Middle East, using separatists as cannon fodder, sending in Chechen paramilitaries, private contractors, to try and replenish their losses. Ukraine doesn't have the equipment, even with Western aid, to supply all their troops.

Despite all the drones, javelins, and other weapons, most of the heavy equipment used on both sides is Soviet-era.

At some point, Russia's going to have to decide whether to settle for the territory they've already seized, focusing efforts on defeating western-backed insurgents, or begin full mobilization. More and more, I think Putin will choose the latter. By and large, the Russian population still supports him and losing this conflict equals his fall from power.

[Navigator]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/du ... 022-07-05/
It appears Navigator's prediction is coming true. Both sides feel a threat from each other and cannot understand the other's position. Talk of nuclear weapons is becoming commonplace.
Navigator, please tell us your current assessment and what we might expect coming up on this front.

Putin, like all egomaniacs, seems incapable of admitting that he has made a mistake. So the Russian Army slogs on.

Here is a link to a fantastic analysis about why the Russians are having such problems; namely the lack of infantry manpower, and how they are using manpower from the "breakaway" Ukrainian republics to attempt to fill the gaps. Needless to say, this is a poor stop gap measure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs

As this analysis points out, Russia can only fight the war its military prepared for if it goes to full mobilization. Part of that is full industrial mobilization, and your article shows them moving in that direction.

They are going to go there, it is just a matter of time. And not a long time.

The Russians will get much better once they get their masses of infantry to protect their equipment.

Meanwhile, NATO has its own lack of infantry problems.

I will try to write much more tomorrow. Don't have enough time tonight.

It depends on what you mean by "much better". Russia has already given up on anything bold and has resorted to its WWII tactics of pound everything with artillery until it's rubble, advance a hundred meters and repeat. The only way Russia can get appreciably more infantry is by conscripting more people which will be quite unpopular and will still have the problem of poor training, horrible leadership and an inability to adequately supply them. Russia will also not be able to add appreciably more modern equipment because it's cut off from the components it needs while even China is not willing to sell to them.

NATO doesn't have the need for hordes of poorly trained conscripts because it has different strategies. In particular, it has modern air forces and uses them. If Russia can't overcome Ukraine with the relatively paltry aid it's received, how can it conquer nations with modern militaries? The biggest "surprise" of Russia new war has been how poor the Russian military actually is. Barring the use of nuclear weapons, Russia has been shown to be a bully only capable of fighting weaker nations and not very well at that.

Currently, Russia would have a domestic support problem should Putin decide to go with mass mobilization. So for right now, we are safe for a while longer.

I believe that this will change with the coming economic crisis, which Putin (as well as the Chinese) will blame on the US and the West (ECB, Japan, in addition to US). In addition, there will probably be other "incidents" to stir the population up against Putin and the CCP's perceived enemies.

You are right that the Russians will still have problems with poor leadership and difficulty with long supply lines. But the Europeans will have problems as well. In the worst case, the war would start, and Russia would play the role of Austria-Hungary (AH for short) in World War One. That is, they start conflicts with a bunch of other countries, and make a mess of it in every case (AH attacked Serbia, then Russia, then Italy came in, then later Romania. In EVERY case, they had to appeal to the Germans for help).

So maybe they just get things started, and create a big mess, and then have to ask the Chinese for help.

However, the west faces big issues to.

If/When Russia crosses the NATO line, what could realistically happen?
1. Germany, Hungary, Turkey and Slovakia (even France and Italy) could well declare themselves Neutral. Belgium actually did this in the run up to World War Two. We did such a great job demilitarizing Germany after WW2 that the vast majority of Germans view "all war is bad".

2. If you think Russian would be unhappy about being drafted into the Army, what do you think will be the feeling in NATO countries. I would think that the Baltics (which won't last a week) Poland and now Finland would be the exceptions. What do you think Italians and Spaniards are going to do, let alone Belgians and French.

3. Every NATO country has the infantry deficit problem that Russia currently has. Everyone has bought lots of end items (which their defense contractors want them to), but there is a woeful lack of supporting infantry. Squad sizes everywhere have gone from the WW2 dozen men to maybe 8, 3 of them who have to stay with the vehicle (the Bradley or similar Infantry Fighting Vehicle). In addition, the Reserve systems in NATO, outside of the US, have gone to pot since the end of the Cold War.

4. While the Russians are showing that they (and I believe the Chinese) have plenty of Ammo stocks, NATO does not. Half to a third of the AntiTank weapons inventory have gone to Ukraine. So has all the former Warsaw Pact ammo for Russian equipment. NATO will run out of ammo in an all out conflict in less than 2 weeks.

[spottybrowncow]

NATO will run out of ammo in an all out conflict in less than 2 weeks.

Is that when the nukes come out?

[tim]

If Russia is losing in Ukraine, how could they spend military resources on a military drill in the Western Hemisphere?

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/188833/Ira ... in-America

Iran, Russia, China to run war drills in Latin America

TEHRAN, Jul. 06 (MNA) – Iran, Russia, and China are gearing up to run a series of major war drills in Latin America in a show of force meant to signal how these militaries can reach the United States, local media in the United States have said.

Along with 10 other nations, Russia, China, and Iran will move their militaries into the Western Hemisphere for war drills that will "preposition forward-deployed military assets in Latin America and the Caribbean."

The war games, known as the Sniper Frontier competition, show that these states from across the globe are uniting and "getting ready to make a loud statement that the region is ready to embrace the multipolar force," according to the think-tank report, which focuses on Latin America. A key portion of Russia's "military is prepping to bring, for the first time, some of these military games to the Western Hemisphere"—even as Moscow is engaged with war in Ukraine.

[DaKardii]

3. Amillennialism: These people interpret Revelation purely symbolically, and see the Millennium not as an earthly golden age in which the world will be totally Christianized, but as the present period where Christ rules the Earth through the Church. This school of thought is followed by most non-Evangelical Protestants, and is near-universally accepted among Catholics and Orthodox.

I disagree with your description of Amillenialism having near-universal acceptance among Catholics. The Church does not even view itself as ruling over the Earth. Jesus acknowledged to Pilate that Satan has dominion over the world. He will not rule until His Second Coming. His first was one of mercy but His second will be one of justice. If Jesus ruled right now we would not see the depravity and pure evil being witnessed on a daily basis.

Jesus also said that only His Father in Heaven knows the day and the hour. I would submit that it's dangerous, and probably sinful, for us to speculate on when that is. His instruction to us is for our souls to be ready, at every moment. The signs, as Navigator has described in his book, point to horrible times for us personally, but it would be a mistake to equate those with the End Times. Being physically prepared is good, but being spiritually prepared is more important.

I actually meant to write what you said when describing Amillenialism, albeit in less words. And based on your response it's clear that I didn't use a good choice of words when trying to do so. So thank you. I stand corrected.

[Cool Breeze]

I don't understand supporting NATO and US efforts to mess with Russia for decades when it was unnecessary. Now poke and prod them into a war? Sounds like the same historical foolishness of elites sacrificing others so that they can have more power. Regardless of what "side" you want to take, I fail to see how any of this is good, moral or beneficial to the world population. Saying other countries are evil, whether it is true or not, helps no one - especially when your foreign policy makes no sense with regard to these terms. US foreign policy is a disaster, and we've treated real adversaries (like China) much better than other countries for a long, long time. Essentially we built them up so our disgusting leaders could profit. Totally schizophrenic stuff that you would think the oldies on the board would understand.

As I get older I find that most things make sense when you take into account that 1) Satan has dominion over this world, and though he won't win in the end he can sure eff things up (and, ironically, his own actions eventually lead to his failures); and 2) most political decisions are made for the accumulation of money, power, or both. I almost never agree with those decisions, but at least I understand them. Qui bono.

As examples, Satan's greed in wanting more and more infant sacrifices, up to and even after birth, eventually turned most of the nation against abortion. Had the left maintained the safe, legal, and rare mantra, abortion might have one day been enshrined in law.

And, we had a president impeached over a phone call to one of the most corrupt leaders in the world. Now, a new president has given that same corrupt leader $60 billion in aid, and now he's a hero. Now, why would that be?

The fact of the matter is that most of the people in power, with few exceptions, don't give a rat's rear end about you and I. Why should I care about them?

I cannot agree more. The very real battle that we see in this world between evil powers and principalities that do their best to take down God's creation in whatever way they can, has become increasingly obvious and more real/obvious than ever.

There is a "good" side to this that people without faith can never understand, but you do and I'm pleased that you do, JDav. Glory to God for all things.

[Cool Breeze]

You wrote at the beginning of the year that you expected Russia to destroy a hollowed out NATO and drive millions of refugees into Spain (Iberian peninsula). Do you still expect this to happen? The situation is in flux, but what do you think know?

I think the Russians are indeed planning to do much more.

None of us, Russians included, have yet to experience the dramatic economic downturn that is coming. This will greatly accelerate things.

I do not know how far the Russians will go, but Putin will have no qualms about spreading death and destruction in his attempt to become like Peter the Great.

I agree with part 1, but I am constantly astounded as to why you give the US and NATO a pass in considering that they too do, and have done, the same and even worse than the Russian Federation has ever done.

[Cool Breeze]

If Russia was doing half as well as they claimed to be, the conventional fighting would already be over and we'd be talking about an insurgency. Instead, they abandoned their effort to take Kiev and focused all their effort in the east of Ukraine. Much of the territory they currently occupy was taken in the initial stages of the war. Yes, they've taken Luhansk and some other terrain, but every inch has cost them dearly.

Russia doesn't want to do what you guys think, even a non-military but otherwise (at least somewhat) intelligent guy Martin Armstrong understands this. If it were a full takeover they would have done all sorts of far more "horrible things" including taking out the electrical grid, cutting off the water supply, etc. Yet they didn't. Why?

You guys lack all sorts very important considerations in this and for pure propaganda, and russian hatred, which is Bizarre when you look at the rulers of the West, who are absolute filth and totally indifferent to others. By the way, they have WAY more death on their hands than Mr. Putin has, and it's not even close.

[Cool Breeze]

3. Amillennialism: These people interpret Revelation purely symbolically, and see the Millennium not as an earthly golden age in which the world will be totally Christianized, but as the present period where Christ rules the Earth through the Church. This school of thought is followed by most non-Evangelical Protestants, and is near-universally accepted among Catholics and Orthodox.

I disagree with your description of Amillenialism having near-universal acceptance among Catholics. The Church does not even view itself as ruling over the Earth. Jesus acknowledged to Pilate that Satan has dominion over the world. He will not rule until His Second Coming. His first was one of mercy but His second will be one of justice. If Jesus ruled right now we would not see the depravity and pure evil being witnessed on a daily basis.

Jesus also said that only His Father in Heaven knows the day and the hour. I would submit that it's dangerous, and probably sinful, for us to speculate on when that is. His instruction to us is for our souls to be ready, at every moment. The signs, as Navigator has described in his book, point to horrible times for us personally, but it would be a mistake to equate those with the End Times. Being physically prepared is good, but being spiritually prepared is more important.

I actually meant to write what you said when describing Amillenialism, albeit in less words. And based on your response it's clear that I didn't use a good choice of words when trying to do so. So thank you. I stand corrected.

I think you just used the phrase "rules the Earth" in a generic way, but didn't mean it literally. The Evil One still has (some) power in the world, but only because God allows it and it still plays into His providence and our salvation. It is a fact that all authority in heaven and on earth has been given to Jesus Christ, as He told us. That the time hasn't come yet for all those who hate God and know where they are going - to the Lake of Fire - is a different issue.