Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

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These are the people I am calling "The 97th Percentile". They run all of our institutions including the Fed. A person who is in the 97th percentile would typically be the smartest person in a room of 30 people. So they think they're pretty smart, but they're really not.

Let's do some back of the envelope calculations to understand the recent college cheating scandals that The 97th Percentile got caught up in and to see from a statistical standpoint why they are happening. We'll exclude the 99.0 percentile and above because for various reasons too numerous to discuss here they don't matter for the purposes of this exercise. Round numbers, the IQ at the 97th percentile is 130 and if we assume for simplicity that everyone from The 97th percentile is at that level (including their spouses), a rough calculation finds that, due to regression to the mean, out of the slice of the overall population that is at the 95.0 to 99.0 percentile, 16% of their children will have IQs over 130, or 0.64% of the next generation's population. The "rabble" below them who constitute the remaining 95%, meanwhile, if we assume for back of the envelope purposes that they all average at an IQ of 100, 2.5% of their children will have IQs over 130, or 2.38% of the next generation's population (this number in reality is probably closer to 2.5 - 0.64 - some small number, or, say, 1.6% but still handily outnumbers the 0.64%). From this back of the envelope calculation we can see why when The 97th Percentile tries to cement their heirs into the top of the hierarchy there is going to be trouble.

[vincecate]

I gave it my best but I just can't generate the volume.

Algorithms can work 24/7 so it is hard to compete on volume.

[Higgenbotham]

I gave it my best but I just can't generate the volume.

Algorithms can work 24/7 so it is hard to compete on volume.

I don't think he's an algorithm. I posted a link to a video and he watched it and commented on it. Or can a bot do that?

[vincecate]

I don't think he's an algorithm. I posted a link to a video and he watched it and commented on it. Or can a bot do that?

Maybe it read comments for the video and generated a comment from those comments.
Maybe it can get some content from a video.
Maybe there is a human assisting the algorithm from time to time.

[vincecate]

GDP deflator for Q2 was expected to be 8.7% but came out today at 9%. Inflation is not as transient as people think.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-deflator

[Higgenbotham]

I don't think he's an algorithm. I posted a link to a video and he watched it and commented on it. Or can a bot do that?

Maybe it read comments for the video and generated a comment from those comments.
Maybe it can get some content from a video.
Maybe there is a human assisting the algorithm from time to time.

What Happens to Bubbles

https://streamable.com/heohbn

Consult H and the red headed one for guidance report. Its very accurate.

[vincecate]

if Powell had known that Russia was going to invade Ukraine and shut down all the Black Sea ports, he undoubtedly would not have made that prediction. me neither.

About half of all dollars in existence were created in the last 3 years:



Add in some Covid shutdowns and supply confusion and "too many dollars chasing too few goods" seems a solid prediction.
This inflation was well on the way before Feb 26th. At most Russia invading Ukraine is a partial trigger, but not the core cause.

[vincecate]

Consult H and the red headed one for guidance report. Its very accurate.

If this is your best evidence of intelligent thought, I don't find it convincing. I have yet to see a several step logical argument with supporting evidence in links.

[Higgenbotham]

I follow 8 traders who have a good record of calling intermediate term trends in the market.

Update below:

1. Sold all longs near SPX 4250 this morning (August 19) which were established at lower levels and went partially short (all posted in real time). Will put on more shorts if the market bounces on Monday. There will be a horrible decline into November 8.
2. Every signal is a sell as of August 17. Max FOMO is evident.
3. No position. The medium term trend is up. The long term trend is still down. Waiting for a pullback to go long. SPX 4220 may be a good place to go long. No shorts until the medium term trend turns down on a break of SPX 4000.
4. Sold longs from SPX 3950 at 4250 this morning (August 19, posted the evening of August 19). No position.
5. SPX 4225 will end the first leg down of a larger drop (the 4225 target was posted the morning of August 17).
6. The market will be lower than SPX 4270 in mid October.
7. Partially short from SPX 4230 at the close on August 19. The medium and short term trends have turned down.
8. There will be a buyable correction from the low SPX 4300 area (posted before today's drop) and one more high after that toward SPX 4400 before a big, fast reversal in August.

I've been asked to provide the links to these traders. They are below:

1. https://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject ... ctid=57872
2. https://twitter.com/MacroCharts
3. https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV
4. https://www.tradingtheline.com/
5. https://twitter.com/CarlFutia and http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
6. https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index. ... /?p=873320 (most recent post)
7. https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels
8. https://twitter.com/xtrends

Their methods are listed below:

1. Astro, Lindsay, Fib Pattern Analysis
2. Sentiment, Trader Positioning, Macro
3. Price Based Trend
4. T Theory, Price Based Trend
5. Sentiment, Price, Fed
6. Fed, Macro
7. Breadth and Volatility Based Trends
8. Breadth, Sentiment, Trendlines

[vincecate]

On Twitter I am https://twitter.com/vincecate
or @vincecate

Is anyone else using Twitter?