John wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:30 am
Monday September 12th, 2022
analysts from multiple media sources are expressing shock and surprise with how successful lightning strikes by Ukrainian forces over the weekend have recovered so much territory in Northeast donbas. as hundreds of Russian troops are being withdrawn, some analysts are even suggesting that Russia's army is collapsing.
it appears that Russia is moving its troops South, to defend Mariupol and other Southern cities in case Ukrainian forces attack there.
whatever happens next, it now appears that the Ukraine war has taken a decisive turn in Ukraine's favor, at least for the time being.
The only way out for the Russians after the immediate debacle months ago was to mobilize reservist infantry to fill out the Russian units. This was necessary as the Russian forces that went in were basically just the operators of the vehicles. There was no infantry to put protective "screens" around the armored vehicles, and the Ukrainians had a field day with modern anti-tank weapons.
Putin seems completely unwilling to mobilize. Sure, they have shanghaied lots of unwilling young men from the breakaway republics, and then given them outdated weapons and no training, but this obviously didn't do it.
As this goes on, the Russians are getting more and more demoralized. At this point, the Russian Army does need to disengage to reorganize and recover.
Putin may be thinking he can turn the tide by imposing economic pain on Germany, but this isn't going to provide his forces with the infantry they need.
The longer this goes on, the higher the likelihood that the military is able to work out some kind of coup to take Putin out. Then we will probably have a competent military leader in charge of Russia, someone who will mobilize and refit/reorganize the Army to punish Ukraine and those that aided them. Yes, an even more nationalistic leader than Putin.
Meanwhile, NATO is moving towards serious infighting. The Poles recently told the Germans they want at least a Trillion$ as compensation for WW2. So now the Poles and Germans are going to have another argument, while neither has the wherewithal to heat homes as it gets cold.
Then there is the distinct possibility of Turkey starting an actual war with the Greeks.
To top things off in Europe, the Italians could actually return to Fascism, while Sweden may become embroiled in domestic political turmoil even before they can join NATO.
As a "I told you so", I am seeing more and more articles about the US and NATO being desperately short of ammunition, and without the ability to replace the shortage for years, as everything is being sent to the Ukraine.