Financial topics

[Tom Mazanec]

Bob Moriarty: The Feds Choice is Hyperinflation or Destroy the Economy
8,278 viewsOct 17, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvaJZJmmUnw

October 17, 2022
The National Debt Elephant in the Room
By Brian C. Joondeph
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... _room.html

[Higgenbotham]

This shows the damage to my equity this morning. This is a 6 month shot and the small dip at the end is today. As mentioned before, the huge one day drop about 3 weeks ago was when I withdrew the previous 6 months of profits. I'm continuing to build shorts this morning. Slowly. This could be quite a struggle.

[Higgenbotham]

This year they may be able to cancel the crash for a few days but I think this market and these fools really are in trouble this time.

Mega-Bank CEOs Announce Cancellation of Stock Market Crash

October 6, 2015 - New York - For the seventh consecutive year, the US banking cartel has canceled an impending autumn stock market crash. During a press conference this morning, Goldman Sachs CEO Lllloyd Bllllankstare, flanked by JP Morgan and Bank of America mega-bank CEOs Jamie Diamondssss and Samuellll Rambullll, announced the impending cancellation of the traditional October crash. Bllllankstare, speaking on the condition that his comments be considered anonymous, stated that the traditional autumn crash is no longer necessary, “because we own most of the stock anyway.” He did note, however, that the autumn crash has not really disappeared, making the distinction between 2 new terms that have recently entered the mega-bank lexicon - “downcrash” and “upcrash”. “In the past, we traditionally engineered downcrashes so we could accumulate stock, but since we now own most of the stock it is actually more advantageous to engineer upcrashes,” Bllllankstare said. “Crashes themselves have not disappeared.” Rambullll, the Bank of America CEO who replaced Eddie Dropbear in 2008, the last year a stock market crash occurred, echoed those comments saying, “We ram the market up now, rather than drop the market. Ramming is considered by our strategists to be a quantum mechanical phenomenon, rather than a Newtonian phenomenon.” When asked by reporters why their names have recently changed to incorporate 4 identical letters in a row rather than the traditional 1 or 2, Bllllankstare and Rambullll replied in unison that, “Letters are free, like money.” “Really, it’s just another way to show that there are no limits to growth,” Rambullll elaborated. “People need to be thinking in terms of the infinite and - when they think in those terms - numbers, words and other metrics can really grow exponentially.” When asked if profits matter anymore, Diamondssss stated that when money and letters are free there is no need for profits. “It’s not like we need to use ink and paper to print all these letters or digits anymore,” he said. “We just create them out of thin air and everyone grows rich, either through trickle-down or, with our new techniques, trickle-up. Our cutting edge research has shown that the problems that occurred in the past due to printing too much money, such as stock market crashes and hyperinflations, were more related to the cost of the ink and paper. We don’t need to worry about that anymore. It really is a beautiful new era of unlimited wealth.”

Today we caught up with Eddie Dropbear, the former CEO of Bank of America, who was succeeded by Samuellll Rambullll after the 2008 downcrash. Eddie is currently relaxing in the Bahamas, where he has been for 10 years. Asked about a possible coming downcrash, Eddie replied, "I'm warming up in the bullpen and we're getting it ready." Asked if he is concerned about whether a potential downcrash will devastate what's left of the middle class, Dropbear replied, "Middle class? What are you talking about? I didn't know there was anything left of the middle class, but if there is, it's a statistical aberration and we'll eliminate the rest of them soon enough." Asked if he will soon be changing his name to Eddie Dropbearrrr because letters are free like the Fed Reserve's money, he replied, "Nothing will be free after the US goes bankrupt and we will own everything."

[vincecate]

Bob Moriarty: The Feds Choice is Hyperinflation or Destroy the Economy
8,278 viewsOct 17, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvaJZJmmUnw

They destroyed the economy with a decade of zero interest rates, that is done and can not be changed.
The Austrian Economists call this "malinvestment". If you can borrow money for near zero-percent then
all sorts of stupid business ideas look reasonable. We have had far more foolish than "pets.com" this time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malinvestment

Going forward the choice is between destruction with hyperinflation and destruction without-hyperinflation.
My bet is they think they want to control inflation long enough to crash the bond, stock, real estate markets,
then they decide to print and we get hyperinflation.

[richard5za]

Vince, the decade of monetary mismanagement is, as you say, done. The only way I know of for fixing inflation is to put the economy into recession. That is happening and it seems that the Fed is committed to this.
The economic skill is to create enough recession to deal with inflation, but not too much to really hurt the economy. They seem quite binary in their actions rather than viewing matters in shades of grey so maybe they will have too heavy a hand
Of course there are many other wild cards that could bite very hard. One that I am predicting is a global debt crisis.

Higg, this morning I remain in favour of a bear market rally for the short term. Medium term down

[richard5za]

This is a complicated market. I think the line in the sand may be 3700. So a close below 3700 I move to bear and short, above 3700 I remain bear rally. Hope that makes sense Higg?

[Higgenbotham]

This is a complicated market. I think the line in the sand may be 3700. So a close below 3700 I move to bear and short, above 3700 I remain bear rally. Hope that makes sense Higg?

I covered shorts today and am 100% cash. Earnings season is in full swing today and opex looms. I might short into any rally in the next 2 days. 4200 and 3500 seem to me to be the important numbers the past 2 months. I'm not too interested in any levels besides those and their fibs. I'd be really surprised if the market could get over 4200 the rest of this year but wouldn't be surprised to see something over 4000. 3767 is the 38.2% retrace of the trip from 4200 to 3500. After hitting 3500, the market tried to overcome 3767, came close, and failed. I sold some up there yesterday (as posted) and was lucky enough to get out with a profit. The odds the second time up usually aren't as good but the clock is ticking on expiration week. With a few exceptions, I haven't spent enough time studying how the market reacted to the earnings of individual stocks that have reported. My initial impression is to think the market was expecting too much from some companies but gave companies that are considered safe, but really aren't, a pass. That's what somebody said about Tesla tonight.

[Higgenbotham]

They destroyed the economy with a decade of zero interest rates, that is done and can not be changed.
The Austrian Economists call this "malinvestment". If you can borrow money for near zero-percent then
all sorts of stupid business ideas look reasonable. We have had far more foolish than "pets.com" this time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malinvestment

Going forward the choice is between destruction with hyperinflation and destruction without-hyperinflation.
My bet is they think they want to control inflation long enough to crash the bond, stock, real estate markets,
then they decide to print and we get hyperinflation.

I sent this quote from you to a family member. I've been saying for over a decade that Bernanke's actions and those that followed destroyed the world economy and will send the world into a new dark age, but it didn't really resonate. Sometimes people need to hear it from someone else in different words for it to really come across. The way you put it here resonated much better. I feel this is the cliff notes version that the average person needs to know - "they destroyed the economy..., that is done and can not be changed". I think things have also reached a point where most people can see this more clearly. That may mean the crash we have been talking about is close. There's been some mention this week of VIX call buying at strikes of 100 and over for the first half of next year. But the fact that they are buying now says to me any time in the next few months is the bet.

[vincecate]

They destroyed the economy with a decade of zero interest rates, that is done and can not be changed.
The Austrian Economists call this "malinvestment". If you can borrow money for near zero-percent then
all sorts of stupid business ideas look reasonable. We have had far more foolish than "pets.com" this time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malinvestment

Going forward the choice is between destruction with hyperinflation and destruction without-hyperinflation.
My bet is they think they want to control inflation long enough to crash the bond, stock, real estate markets,
then they decide to print and we get hyperinflation.

I sent this quote from you to a family member. I've been saying for over a decade that Bernanke's actions and those that followed destroyed the world economy and will send the world into a new dark age, but it didn't really resonate.

Thanks. That is sort of my 2 paragraph summary of Mises paper, "The Economic Consequences of Cheap Money".
This paper is not hard to understand and may resonate with them too. It is well worth reading. It explains what is going
on today so well. This paper is from 1946 and the experiments with printing money go back much further.

https://mises.org/library/economic-cons ... heap-money

[Higgenbotham]

I might short into any rally in the next 2 days. 4200 and 3500 seem to me to be the important numbers the past 2 months. I'm not too interested in any levels besides those and their fibs. I'd be really surprised if the market could get over 4200 the rest of this year but wouldn't be surprised to see something over 4000. 3767 is the 38.2% retrace of the trip from 4200 to 3500. After hitting 3500, the market tried to overcome 3767, came close, and failed. I sold some up there yesterday (as posted) and was lucky enough to get out with a profit. The odds the second time up usually aren't as good but the clock is ticking on expiration week.

I'm shorting this morning. Have done some and won't be doing hardly any more today if the market goes higher. I would rather not see the market come any closer to 3767 than it already has this morning. If it does, I will stay with the position I have but get prepared for a move over 3767.