Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Oct 24, 2022 12:04 pm
Yes, and BTC will take a share of that new era realization, and got to ATHs again as well.
Are you sure that you are not married to BTC?
What would your definition of "married to" be? I have conviction and reason to believe in cycles and return, since that has happened many times before. It's possible that it won't ever rally back to ATH, but I very seriously doubt it.
Well on a relative basis the Ethereum price has out performed BTC. Also I seen a couple of articles recently that if crypto has a future its more likely to be Ethereum than BTC. It is true that BTC has found support at $ 18 500 and could bounce up but from a technical viewpoint it is firmly in a down trend. Whether it can break this down trend remains to be seen. After all it has fallen from circa $ 67 000 to $ 18 500
Careful your BTC wife doesn't jilt you!
Cool,
I didn't answer your question about what I mean by married to an asset class or individual asset. Its a deep belief that this asset will perform amazingly well in some way which obscures the ability to look at circumstances objectively.
A very good example is a market bubble. Your find the majority of investors are passionately positive about the market or asset even though the P/E ratio, or other factors, are way above the norms and averages of the last 50 years. We laugh at the stupidity of the Tulip bubble but it has been repeated, and repeated in so many ways
Then after the bubble has burst and the faithfull have been "jilted" so many people then say "I will never invest in XYZ again"
QED
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:46 pm
If Apple also disappoints tomorrow maybe this high can stick. Until then, the market may just sit in this area.
In high inflation people cut back on optional things, like an expensive new phone when old one still works.
My guess is they are not doing as well as people expect. Be interesting to see.
Last edited by vincecate on Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
John wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:12 am
He plans to take a trip to Paris in april. he would like to know whether he should convert his dollars to Euros now or wait until april.
Madam Inflation is probably the most irresponsible central banker in the first world in 50 years.
My guess is he is better to stay in dollars and convert later.
He might put 10% in Bitcoin too, in case Dollar and Euro both crash by then. 1/2
What would your definition of "married to" be? I have conviction and reason to believe in cycles and return, since that has happened many times before. It's possible that it won't ever rally back to ATH, but I very seriously doubt it.
Well on a relative basis the Ethereum price has out performed BTC. Also I seen a couple of articles recently that if crypto has a future its more likely to be Ethereum than BTC. It is true that BTC has found support at $ 18 500 and could bounce up but from a technical viewpoint it is firmly in a down trend. Whether it can break this down trend remains to be seen. After all it has fallen from circa $ 67 000 to $ 18 500
Careful your BTC wife doesn't jilt you!
And the part you never talk about is how it has fallen from X to Y many, many times before - only to go up again each time to ATH - and everyone who didn't do their homework (married according to your language) got emotional, sold, and lost big. That won't happen to me.
John wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:12 am
He plans to take a trip to Paris in april. he would like to know whether he should convert his dollars to Euros now or wait until april.
Madam Inflation is probably the most irresponsible central banker in the first world in 50 years.
My guess is he is better to stay in dollars and convert later.
He might put 10% in Bitcoin too, in case Dollar and Euro both crash by then. 1/2
Yes, the dollar at a minimum continues to get stronger for a while, so I'd check back in at the beginning of the year and consider exchanging then, or waiting. The Euro will not increase in value vs the dollar in the next few months, so he shouldn't exchange now.
richard5za wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:52 am
Cool,
I didn't answer your question about what I mean by married to an asset class or individual asset. Its a deep belief that this asset will perform amazingly well in some way which obscures the ability to look at circumstances objectively.
A very good example is a market bubble. Your find the majority of investors are passionately positive about the market or asset even though the P/E ratio, or other factors, are way above the norms and averages of the last 50 years. We laugh at the stupidity of the Tulip bubble but it has been repeated, and repeated in so many ways
Then after the bubble has burst and the faithfull have been "jilted" so many people then say "I will never invest in XYZ again"
QED
I agree and know what you mean, but I've given numerous examples why BTC isn't tulips or even a bubbled market, especially at this point in history. All you have to do is look at charts to realize that it goes up and down well before any bubbling up of market time periods and the tulip thing was always one of the dumbest analogies ever. I've already disproven it. Nonsense naysayer emotionalism, mostly because they don't like me, so they want me to be wrong. The problem is, I've done my homework, and they haven't, and they are legacy people. Which is why they'll be sad when they aren't holding value exchange in a surveillance world, that's worth untold amounts more, with privacy to boot.
What would your definition of "married to" be? I have conviction and reason to believe in cycles and return, since that has happened many times before. It's possible that it won't ever rally back to ATH, but I very seriously doubt it.
Well on a relative basis the Ethereum price has out performed BTC. Also I seen a couple of articles recently that if crypto has a future its more likely to be Ethereum than BTC. It is true that BTC has found support at $ 18 500 and could bounce up but from a technical viewpoint it is firmly in a down trend. Whether it can break this down trend remains to be seen. After all it has fallen from circa $ 67 000 to $ 18 500
Careful your BTC wife doesn't jilt you!
Since when? I have no problem with ETH, I just prefer BTC because I'm all in on the network effect and especially proof of work, which makes more sense in terms of value, consensus, and energy paradigms to create value in assets (like gold, requires energy to extract).
Treasury is paying 9.62% on 6 month bonds but have to act fast. Wow. If they had $31 trillion at 9.62% that would be $2.98 trillion per year. Of course by the time we get to that it would be clear the government was bankrupt and would be printing faster and more inflation, so the rates would be even higher.
