Financial topics

[richard5za]

What is the current status of billionaires and their Bitcoin investments?

The only one I know the current status of is Druckenmiller. He said recently with the Fed being in tightening mode, he does not own any Bitcoin at this time.

Does anyone know if Druckenmiller publicized his exit before the video I saw this month?

Good question. They've been quiet, but it's obvious why (they might be buying and are waiting to chest thump). Tudor Jones is one I've seen but he won't be specific at all about it ("small", minor, etc). O'Leary is all in though, and he's a billionaire.

I doubt that the smart money is buying at present and are probably out. In an unknown and rapidly rising asset such as BTC they would have had trailing stop losses which means that if the price revereses by the stop loss % then it is sold. So say a trailing stop loss was 10% when BTC reversed off $ 67 000 the asset would have been sold when the price came down to $ 60 300.
As regards buying back in, even the most basic of price charts shows that whilst BTC found support at $ 18 500 it still needs to break up through the sharp down trend before any consideration can be given to buying. This is because the alternative to breaking up through the down trend is another leg down to circa $ 10 000, and then maybe another leg down after that

Spotting the bottom of a down trend is very hard and its always better to wait for a confirmed up trend.

[Phong Tran]

Institutional investors aren't really buying the rally while retailers are buying hoping that it's a bottom or investing long term because they've only seen markets going up in their lifetime. My timeline of a Nov-Dec rally was based on a more optimistic stretched out market price action but these sharp volatile daily actions don't portend well to stable markets and I think the major 3 of 3 is coming sooner than I thought.

2 of 3 of III could either end with the fed meeting next week just like jackson hole or we get a retrace from it but rally again after the US elections up to 4100 before the next downturn brings us to sub-3000 by next March. Q4 forecasted earnings weakness should have been a warning to many that these P/E ratios aren't sustainable, but Apple Q3 earnings helped give the market a floor for now. People still haven't fully realized that a hard landing is coming with both inflation issues, unemployment, higher interest rates than the economy can support, etc.

I don't think many people realize how bad 2023 will be.

[Cool Breeze]

I don't think many people realize how bad 2023 will be.

Yes, the next 2-3 years are going to beat it out of people, as they say fools rush in and we all know that once "everyone knows" it is far too late.

The recent reactions in a historical sense show you just how oblivious the common man is anyway, especially when things have been good for a long time, or going that way for a long time. Covid was the first to show you, and the US as an overall populace did better than most, which isn't saying much.

I think people are starting to wake up to a greater degree but they always admit it all (or know it, and act like you didn't see it years in advance even though you told them) way too late. By the time they do, it'll be another "war" that distracts them, furthering the confusion and combined with high inflation and a clearly nonproductive economy, we won't be able to get through to them - again.

[Cool Breeze]

I doubt that the smart money is buying at present and are probably out. In an unknown and rapidly rising asset such as BTC ...

Spotting the bottom of a down trend is very hard and its always better to wait for a confirmed up trend.

Do you conveniently leave out the fact that it has dipped over 5 times before like this AND gone back? That means what you are saying doesn't apply to this asset. It's pretty weird because it's disingenuous (I'm being nice). Why wouldn't smart money be buying? It just went down 60% in a version of its cycle, and the halving is upcoming again in 2024.

I agree that spotting the bottom is hard, but with the data and history we have, there is far more reason to believe that this goes back up to new ATH than anything you are saying (which you can't support).

It just stays down here forever, just because you say? At least give me a reason. I gave you several, including the history and chart, which you can't argue - thus you don't, you ignore it. I find that odd.

[vincecate]

Italian PPI is up 53%. This is the highest since they started keeping records.

[vincecate]

Unsustainable stock buybacks are holding up the market.

[Cool Breeze]

Unsustainable stock buybacks are holding up the market.

2023 is clearly going to be brutal, if this big move down doesn't happen at the election time upcoming ...

[Higgenbotham]

2 of 3 of III could either end with the fed meeting next week just like jackson hole or we get a retrace from it but rally again after the US elections up to 4100 before the next downturn brings us to sub-3000 by next March. Q4 forecasted earnings weakness should have been a warning to many that these P/E ratios aren't sustainable, but Apple Q3 earnings helped give the market a floor for now.

It seems pretty clear this rally has more to go and your scenarios are plausible.

[Higgenbotham]

I doubt that the smart money is buying at present and are probably out. In an unknown and rapidly rising asset such as BTC ...

Spotting the bottom of a down trend is very hard and its always better to wait for a confirmed up trend.

Do you conveniently leave out the fact that it has dipped over 5 times before like this AND gone back? That means what you are saying doesn't apply to this asset. It's pretty weird because it's disingenuous (I'm being nice). Why wouldn't smart money be buying? It just went down 60% in a version of its cycle, and the halving is upcoming again in 2024.

I agree that spotting the bottom is hard, but with the data and history we have, there is far more reason to believe that this goes back up to new ATH than anything you are saying (which you can't support).

It just stays down here forever, just because you say? At least give me a reason. I gave you several, including the history and chart, which you can't argue - thus you don't, you ignore it. I find that odd.

If someone were to start dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin now with a well thought out plan for the next year my guess is there's a 95% probability that investment will be up more than 20% at some point. Maybe 1 percent of funds per month or another 1% each 10 percent down: 20, 18, 16, etc. Bitcoin may not get to a new all time high but it's not going straight to zero either, in my opinion.

One of the reasons for this would be: If the Fed does not relent on the inflation fight, there are a lot of speculative issues in the Nasdaq that will never turn a profit and will be heading for bankruptcy. I said 1-2 years ago that there were 5,000 bubble items and Bitcoin was just another one of them. However, if the Fed does not relent, most of those bubble items will continue losing money or their profits will contract to the point that extrapolation will make it look like they will. At that point, the Fed should be close to reversing course. Even if Bitcoin is going down, once it starts to show relative strength against the Nasdaq, a bottom should be close. That is not happening yet, but Bitcoin is no longer losing relative to the Nasdaq either.

There are things that could change this and maybe my 95% (off the cuff) is too high, but there's still a lot of money out there, a real lot even if it's reduced some, and it has to go somewhere even if it's just a wicked bear market rally in Bitcoin.



Late in 2018 Bitcoin bottomed a few days before the Nasdaq and the relative strength against the Nasdaq shot up as the Nasdaq continued lower. A similar thing happened in March 2020.

[richard5za]

I doubt that the smart money is buying at present and are probably out. In an unknown and rapidly rising asset such as BTC ...
Spotting the bottom of a down trend is very hard and its always better to wait for a confirmed up trend.

It just stays down here forever, just because you say? At least give me a reason. I gave you several, including the history and chart, which you can't argue - thus you don't, you ignore it. I find that odd.

There are things that could change this and maybe my 95% (off the cuff) is too high, but there's still a lot of money out there, a real lot even if it's reduced some, and it has to go somewhere even if it's just a wicked bear market rally in Bitcoin.



Late in 2018 Bitcoin bottomed a few days before the Nasdaq and the relative strength against the Nasdaq shot up as the Nasdaq continued lower. A similar thing happened in March 2020.

This chart you posted Higg demonstrates my point. If you draw a line from the November 2021 high to the April 2022 high anf extend that you get a trend point at current date of around $ 22500. BTC needs to break up through that to attract smart money buying. If it doesn't do that the high probabilty is that it will drop to the next support level down. $ 7500 is a very clear support level and there may be a support level above. Some traders reckon $ 13000.

Its not going to zero any time soon because its so useful to the bad guys and regulating it will take time. The G20 amongst others is determined to regulate crypto and I have no doubt that this will happen in the long or medium term

BTC is a fascinating subject and I have no doubt that there will be much correspondence on this blog as the drama unfolds