Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

Guest wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:31 am
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:21 am
Will AI ultimately "run the world" via an elite group of people?

Is that what WW3 is all about?
AI is overblown.

I think we are heading for a land of small etho-based villages and towns. WW3 won't change that.

Back to how I was going to start this response (assuming you might be the same poster). I think the EU is going to get blown apart and Europe will be a thousand battlefields. If someone knows how they fit into that and migrates out of the US with that in mind, it is different.

You mean that the EU is heading into civil war and any Americans who enter Europe now should know that?

Is anywhere safe, in your your estimation, Higgenbotham? What are you going to do? (If you want to keep that secret, I'll understand.

Any timeline yet?

What was in my mind is if someone migrates to Europe they should examine their ethnic connection to wherever they are considering migrating to.

As an example, I looked up my surname on a site that shows how many people of that surname exist and where they are in the world. That surname is heavily concentrated in southeast England (Kent). Next I found photos of people with that surname who live in that area. I could easily pass for one of them. My ancestors left there over 150 years ago and so far as I know had no connection to that area from that time on. So, assuming I wanted to migrate to Europe, I think in my case it would be a real stretch to try to migrate there, but that would probably be my best bet. For me to migrate to Portugal or Spain at this time in history in my opinion would be really dumb.

After the Soviet Union collapsed, I went there to observe the aftermath of the collapse and stayed in a Khrushchev flat under the protection of a family I met here in the US. When I got there, the matriarch of the family told me that, since I could pass for an East German, I would be unlikely to be a victim of crime in that collapse environment. She specifically told me that about the first hour I was there. Below is the quote where I discussed that previously.

When I traveled to the former Soviet Union after it collapsed (the purpose of the trip was to observe the collapse first hand and learn something), there were a few typical bombastic, nauseating Americans who were easily spotted. On the Lufthansa flight in, the flight attendant offered drinks by asking in German, English, Russian, etc. As she came down the aisle, she got every one right until she came to me. She asked me in German and I said "Water" and we both smiled. I thought, well, maybe I'm doing something right. The matriarch of the family I stayed with said I could pass for an East German and would be OK.

I'm currently in Texas for reasons discussed in this thread previously. That was a temporary move until the collapse begins in earnest, which I think is happening about now. What I will be doing (it's no secret here) is move to the upper Midwest where my family originally migrated to when they left Europe (both sides). I posted one caution about that a few pages back in this thread (copied below) and discussed some of the reasoning for that (in addition to my particular situation).

My mother grew up in a small town in one of the red counties of the upper midwest. edit: Actually, her county is orange. When I was a boy, she told me it takes 2 generations for a newcomer to town to be fully accepted by the people in the town. For anyone making a move to one of these areas, you would be advised to, first of all, understand the culture and, second, to expect that your family will be giving more than you take for a very long time. It's been my experience that some people will spread rumors, and some of those will not be very flattering. It is what it is.

Which reminds me, when I was in Russia, I asked to visit a village. The word I got back from the villagers was that I could look, but only for a couple hours at most. One of their relatives from the city would take me there. The rules would be that I could look around anywhere and take photos, but I would not be allowed in any home in the village and no villagers would be coming out of their homes while I was there. Not what I expected.

General reasoning showing the red and orange counties. There are other reasons.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=6249&p=77781&hilit=putnam#p77781

Another thing I suggested to some of the younger guys was to make a connection to another country through marriage. I think it's too late to do that now.

I'll try to get to the rest of this later.

[guest]

s an example, I looked up my surname on a site that shows how many people of that surname exist and where they are in the world. That surname is heavily concentrated in southeast England (Kent). Next I found photos of people with that surname who live in that area. I could easily pass for one of them. My ancestors left there over 150 years ago and so far as I know had no connection to that area from that time on. So, assuming I wanted to migrate to Europe, I think in my case it would be a real stretch to try to migrate there, but that would probably be my best bet. For me to migrate to Portugal or Spain at this time in history in my opinion would be really dumb.

I think(I know this opinion will ruffle some feathers) that Western whites can now be considered an ethnic group all their own in Western Europe. Eastern Europeans are still Balkanized (No pun intended). I think an Anglo in Portugal would not be shunned. In England, Americans might be viewed as allies. The situation in Britain is really bad. The third world migrants are on the rampage. Ireland is arguably worse. I hate that the situation has become so bad in Western Europe, but it is what it is. I don't think the UK would be a good bolt hole.

I read in a survivalist manual years ago that if you can survive alone in a bunker with food undiscovered for a year, your odds of survival will be decent because 90% of the population would be dead. I don't know how many people will have the tracking and bush craft skills necessary to find an isolated bunker. I think the isolated village would be better, but I think that would be a serious gun battle every day with hungry people.

The future sounds terrifying.

[Higgenbotham]

As an example, I looked up my surname on a site that shows how many people of that surname exist and where they are in the world. That surname is heavily concentrated in southeast England (Kent). Next I found photos of people with that surname who live in that area. I could easily pass for one of them. My ancestors left there over 150 years ago and so far as I know had no connection to that area from that time on. So, assuming I wanted to migrate to Europe, I think in my case it would be a real stretch to try to migrate there, but that would probably be my best bet. For me to migrate to Portugal or Spain at this time in history in my opinion would be really dumb.

I think (I know this opinion will ruffle some feathers) that Western whites can now be considered an ethnic group all their own in Western Europe.

Here in the US, I think time and location will be factors in that. It's been true in certain parts of the US. Those I think are areas to avoid. If all of Western Europe is truly like that, then it should be avoided. In the US, I lived in an old broken down factory town for a few years (population 30,000). There, the division was between whites and blacks. The whites didn't distinguish much among each other except by class - the managerial class and the working class.

I read in a survivalist manual years ago that if you can survive alone in a bunker with food undiscovered for a year, your odds of survival will be decent because 90% of the population would be dead.

I haven't read that but came up with similar. Though I think 90% in the large metros and less elsewhere.

Interesting you say that. My plan has been to survive for a year, then take a look around and decide what to do from there.

[Higgenbotham]

From a cyclical standpoint, there are a few things I'm looking at, but what had my attention Friday and today was the March 12, 2003 low on the 20 year (double decennial) cycle. I don't think that will put in a significant long lasting bottom like it did in 2003 but I felt it was prudent to stand aside, especially given the news. I would like to re-establish shorts on any rally.

The S&P made a new high for the week this morning. The low this week was Monday morning in the first hour. Though it appears that way, it would not be reasonable to claim that it bottomed on the morning of March 13 just because of the 20 year cycle. For example, in October, the low was 4 days after the 20 year anniversary of the October 9, 2002 low. That was evidence that the cycle may be in force.

Anyway, now that the S&P has rallied 150 points off the Monday morning low, I'm getting interested in going short again. If the market is in real bad shape, it can top right here at the 0.382 retracement of the February/March decline. That would be very bearish if that were to happen. Another possibility is the crash cycle inverts and tops in another day or two. The manipulators like to play that trick and have done so many times in the past 15 years. The one thing that would lead me to believe that the manipulators have control and might be able to get a little more out of it is Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are up strongly today (about 4%) and they can use these stocks to push the average.

[Higgenbotham]

Guest wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:31 am
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:21 am
Will AI ultimately "run the world" via an elite group of people?

Is that what WW3 is all about?
AI is overblown.

I think we are heading for a land of small etho-based villages and towns. WW3 won't change that.
Back to how I was going to start this response (assuming you might be the same poster). I think the EU is going to get blown apart and Europe will be a thousand battlefields. If someone knows how they fit into that and migrates out of the US with that in mind, it is different.

You mean that the EU is heading into civil war and any Americans who enter Europe now should know that?

Is anywhere safe, in your your estimation, Higgenbotham? What are you going to do? (If you want to keep that secret, I'll understand.

Any timeline yet?

The regime will eventually retreat to the so-called "Smart" cities, taking so-called "law & order" with them. It will be very uncomfortable outside for a time, in the UK the regime is making sure 3rd world illegals are being dispersed rurally where native resistance will be strongest. It'll be the same in all Western countries.

This is an interesting post. It's what the elites would do if they could pull it off. I don't think they will be able pull it off, but they are trying hard. My interpretation of what they would do if they were trying to cull 90% or so of the population is, let's use the State of Wisconsin as an example because I'm familiar with the numbers. Madison would be the designated smart city (population 270K). They would let Milwaukee and surrounding area (population 950K) and the rest of Wisconsin collapse but would attempt to control enough farmland and supporting towns to feed the 10% or so who survive, which would be the elites and the technocrats and worker bees the elites need to keep themselves firmly and comfortable on their perches.

[Cool Breeze]

You mean that the EU is heading into civil war and any Americans who enter Europe now should know that?

Is anywhere safe, in your your estimation, Higgenbotham? What are you going to do? (If you want to keep that secret, I'll understand.

Any timeline yet?

The regime will eventually retreat to the so-called "Smart" cities, taking so-called "law & order" with them. It will be very uncomfortable outside for a time, in the UK the regime is making sure 3rd world illegals are being dispersed rurally where native resistance will be strongest. It'll be the same in all Western countries.

This is an interesting post. It's what the elites would do if they could pull it off. I don't think they will be able pull it off, but they are trying hard. My interpretation of what they would do if they were trying to cull 90% or so of the population is, let's use the State of Wisconsin as an example because I'm familiar with the numbers. Madison would be the designated smart city (population 270K). They would let Milwaukee and surrounding area (population 950K) and the rest of Wisconsin collapse but would attempt to control enough farmland and supporting towns to feed the 10% or so who survive, which would be the elites and the technocrats and worker bees the elites need to keep themselves firmly and comfortable on their perches.

Yes, this is really interesting. Nice posts by you and the others. Thanks.

By the way, you are also right to short after today. We're going down at least 20% more for the year, and likely more ... and I think that'll even happen by the end of April.

[Higgenbotham]

Guest wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:31 am
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:21 am
Will AI ultimately "run the world" via an elite group of people?

Is that what WW3 is all about?
AI is overblown.

I think we are heading for a land of small etho-based villages and towns. WW3 won't change that.

Back to how I was going to start this response (assuming you might be the same poster). I think the EU is going to get blown apart and Europe will be a thousand battlefields. If someone knows how they fit into that and migrates out of the US with that in mind, it is different.

You mean that the EU is heading into civil war and any Americans who enter Europe now should know that?

Is anywhere safe, in your your estimation, Higgenbotham? What are you going to do? (If you want to keep that secret, I'll understand.

Any timeline yet?

I'll try to get to the rest of this later.

I think (I know this opinion will ruffle some feathers) that Western whites can now be considered an ethnic group all their own in Western Europe.

Getting to some of the rest of this, first, looking at what guest is saying, let's take that at face value. If that's the case, I would say Western Europe is in deep trouble and, at some point, will explode in violence everywhere where that is true, which he says is everywhere. I'm not sure if civil war would be the right way to put it because in my opinion it won't be that well organized, at least not at first. In my predictions, I referred to it as local strife. "Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease." Local strife basically means localized fighting for resources and localized fighting borne out of hate. Hence, my statement that Europe will be a thousand battlefields.

The reason that is true is because anywhere whites are considered an ethnic group all their own is indicative that the processes I described in the post linked to about social capital have run their course, that social capital is drained out.

The safer areas, in my estimation, are going to be the areas where social capital remains stronger. Those are the areas with lots of red and orange on the county map of the US I linked to, which is old but still should be somewhat accurate. There will be some areas outside of that that will do OK if the government can be maintained at least on the local level and is well run (i.e. lower on the scale of corruption) but that typically goes hand in hand with the red and orange areas.

In my opinion, the big event that kicks off the collapse in earnest will be a large financial collapse, probably the largest in the history of the world. It is getting closer but I can't say when. I've talked about some things to look for such as stocks sink day after day and there are no counter trend rallies. Or such as the Federal Reserve does some rescue and stocks are up in the morning but close much lower. Later, it might be that bank accounts can't be accessed for days or the shelves of big box retail are noticeably empty for weeks, much more than has been seen to this point.

The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not of much immediate concern to me. It doesn't indicate that this financial collapse is necessarily coming next week or next month. But it does say that it is getting closer and that Federal Reserve actions since 2008 are coming home to roost. There have been a lot of opinions bandied about regarding whether Silicon Valley Bank management or the Federal Reserve is at fault. In the big picture, if long term low interest securities are pumped out for years on end and then it is necessary to raise interest rates a lot and quickly, somebody will be showing losses on those securities. Whoever shows the most losses wasn't paying attention, but let's say everyone is paying attention equally. Then it would take longer for the problems to show up, but they would show up everywhere all at once.

[guest]

The safer areas, in my estimation, are going to be the areas where social capital remains stronger. Those are the areas with lots of red and orange on the county map of the US I linked to, which is old but still should be somewhat accurate. There will be some areas outside of that that will do OK if the government can be maintained at least on the local level and is well run (i.e. lower on the scale of corruption) but that typically goes hand in hand with the red and orange areas.

What will the red areas do about the blue mobs showing up in their towns in America after the collapse?

[Higgenbotham]

The safer areas, in my estimation, are going to be the areas where social capital remains stronger. Those are the areas with lots of red and orange on the county map of the US I linked to, which is old but still should be somewhat accurate. There will be some areas outside of that that will do OK if the government can be maintained at least on the local level and is well run (i.e. lower on the scale of corruption) but that typically goes hand in hand with the red and orange areas.

What will the red areas do about the blue mobs showing up in their towns in America after the collapse?

There won't be enough fuel and supplies to run a 3-5,000 acre farm, which is the typical size of a farm in those areas. Likewise, there won't be enough fuel and supplies for most people to get to the area where most of the red counties are, and most people will have no aspirations to go to someplace like North Dakota or Nebraska. But for those who do, there will basically be 3 types of people getting there - those who have a needed skill as the needed skill set will change, those who are able-bodied and cooperative, and those who are worthless. The first category can live in the town, the second category can work part of a large acreage farm maybe as a serf, and the third category will probably be disposed of. That's a good scenario; there are many that are worse. I don't have all the answers or even most.

Worse scenario:

Hig, I believe that the collapse of agriculture will follow the collapse of the industrial society. Through modern mechanization, ag production will fall rapidly with the failure of industry, because of the "throw away" nature of newer machinery. Many farmers are leery of new, electronic machinery, but we have no choice when replacing equipment. A failure of a $100 electronic part will render a $200,000 tractor virtually useless; and therefore crops won't be planted or harvested timely.

Just today, I had a discussion with the owner of one of the largest US implement dealers. He stated that he wished he could market a tractor that was made in the 1960's because they were dependable and easy to repair. He would have a large market for them. But now as machinery has been replaced with the electronics, they are increasingly hard to repair.

When the machines fail......people will starve, and people WILL NOT be able to easily grow gardens as many propose. There won't be any garden seed because of lack of production and transportation.

[Guest NC]

There won't be enough fuel and supplies to run a 3-5,000 acre farm, which is the typical size of a farm in those areas. Likewise, there won't be enough fuel and supplies for most people to get to the area where most of the red counties are, and most people will have no aspirations to go to someplace like North Dakota or Nebraska. But for those who do, there will basically be 3 types of people getting there - those who have a needed skill as the needed skill set will change, those who are able-bodied and cooperative, and those who are worthless. The first category can live in the town, the second category can work part of a large acreage farm maybe as a serf, and the third category will probably be disposed of. That's a good scenario; there are many that are worse. I don't have all the answers or even most.

When the machines fail......people will starve, and people WILL NOT be able to easily grow gardens as many propose. There won't be any garden seed because of lack of production and transportation.

Also, pharma will stop production. infection will kill more than starvation.

Mad Max is an optimistic scenario; The Road is the worst. I fear we are heading for the latter.

I remember when I was in high school in North Carolina in the 80s, there was a popular country song called 'A country boy can survive'. It was true then and will be even truer in the future.