Financial topics

[vincecate]

I think this article is worth reading.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/ ... aring.html

[OLD1953]

This article John posted seems to show a lot of optimisim on someone's part.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market ... since-2008

[jcsok]

Here's a link to an article explaining the credit/petroleum relationship, along with analysis/impact of the current Libyian crisis.

http://economic-undertow.blogspot.com/

[Higgenbotham]

Here's a link to an article explaining the credit/petroleum relationship, along with analysis/impact of the current Libyian crisis.

http://economic-undertow.blogspot.com/

Someone told me Friday that Libya makes no difference to the US because we don't get our oil there. This quote from the article explains why that's not true.

This is what is taking place right now in Libya. Uprising in that country effects economies such as that of Italy which is dependent on 400k barrels of Libyan crude per day as well as the euro- credit trade between countries. Any interruption in trade jeopardizes billions of euros worth of bank loans which undermines shaky Italian finance and banking. Exposure to Italian banking debt by EU bondholders becomes risky as a consequence. The outlook is for a debt- deleveraging cascade to take place before oil infrastructure can be secured by NATO or 'private' mercenary forces.

I've been tracking the 2007 oil price against the 2007 peak in the stock market. We are at much higher oil prices than at the time the stock market peaked out in 2007. Stock prices were higher then than they are now though. Although, as the article points out, there was a lot more credit available in 2007 than there is now. It's also been my thought that the strength in equities (and gold) lately may be partly due to Middle Eastern money flowing into US stocks (and gold) as a safe haven. A similar thing seemed to be happening in March and April of 2010 as the trouble in Europe was beginning.

[Higgenbotham]

Hello, what about the 1310 level now, we had 2 closes BELOW that level now, let's see tomorrow on Friday.
If this level is really important and the market is down tomorrow, then it could mean that we had a spike above it and that the market reversed.

My thought has been if we close the month of February below 1310 then the market has in all probability reversed.

Another possibility I see is the market rallies from here to early March, testing or even exceeding the February high, then reverses.

Either scenario seems possible to me at this point.

I shouldn't provide running commentary, but will add this much. The second possibility above has started to occur; however, Friday's rally was weak and does not appear to have what it takes to go near or over the Feb 18 high. Just my opinion at this moment.

[Higgenbotham]

The semiconductor equipment book to bill ratio has fallen to 0.85, about where it fell to in July 2007 when the SOX index topped out and near the all time peak in the stock market.

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news ... bill-slips

http://www.semi.org/cms/groups/public/d ... 033815.pdf

Despite the falling book-to-bill ratio, analysts are still upbeat. ''The semi equipment debate now turns to the increased capital intensity thesis and whether 2011 or 2012 is the peak,'' said C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, in a new report. ''We continue to see positive trends for semi equipment extending into 2012, led by an ongoing foundry arms race supported by increased capital intensity at the next nodes, NAND likely edging higher, and DRAM re-accelerating into 2012 as well.''

[John]

Quotes from CNN's Fareed Zakaria's interview today with Michael Lewis,
author of "The Big Short":

LEWIS: So there is - very clear that there's reckoning in the
future, exactly what form it takes is less clear. I mean, it is
incredible where we sit right now. If you told me in - in early
2009 that all of these big Wall Street firms would be back even
bigger and paying big bonuses and essentially socialized, and then
their loss is socialized but the gains privatized and that the
American people would put up with it? That's the incredible thing
is that there isn't a social revolution. ...

LEWIS: That's right. And the question I have is what happens if
the United States Treasury ceases to be a credible backstop? What
happens when marketers say we don't really want to lend to the
United States anymore? Then you have - then you get the
depression. They you get - then you get a much, much bigger
problem. ...

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ ... ps.01.html

John

[John]

Dear Higgie,

Here's a quote from you from a month ago:

> It's because of all the various things we are seeing that indicate
> the periphery is once again beginning to collapse. This would be
> the same type of thing I wrote about in this forum on April 26,
> 2010 but instead of involving just Greece it involves many more
> areas on the periphery and it is spreading very quickly and
> unpredictably (small countries, states, local governments, and
> individuals). In order to keep the center of the system afloat,
> resources are being sucked from the periphery of the world into
> the center. As the periphery collapses, the center can't hold
> either because it runs out of resources to suck in. However, with
> the heavy government involvement in the markets, it's a lot harder
> to read the situation. It's like trying to monitor a backyard pond
> that had fish in it and now there is a whale in it.

> http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 3080#p7706

You posted this in response to the collapse of the Cairo stock market.
Now we have the same thing happening in Mumbai, Karachi, and Saudi
Arabia, as well as in Dhaka. I'd like to use your "center cannot
hold" quote, which is very clever, in my posting this evening. If
there's anything you can add to it in the next few hours, please do
so.

Thanks,

John

[John]

[Higgenbotham]

Dear Higgie,

You posted this in response to the collapse of the Cairo stock market.
Now we have the same thing happening in Mumbai, Karachi, and Saudi
Arabia, as well as in Dhaka. I'd like to use your "center cannot
hold" quote, which is very clever, in my posting this evening. If
there's anything you can add to it in the next few hours, please do
so.

Thanks,

John

John,

I don't see much to add to this, but it doesn't seem all that profound. This is the second or third iteration of this nonsense. The first iteration was when Bernanke panicked over subprime (after repeatedly stating it was contained) and ratcheted interest rates down, driving oil to $147 per barrel and food prices to record highs. After the economy subsequently collapsed, the second iteration was QE1, which ultimately ended up collapsing the periphery of Europe and nearly destroying the European financial system. Now's he's on his third fiat money bomb foray with QE2 and it is the most harmful yet, as both types of impacts are happening simultaneously. I say three strikes and you're out! Bernanke needs to be removed and replaced by someone moral and competent like Thomas Hoenig!

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/s ... -23-11.pdf