Higgenbotham wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:14 pm
25:06 Moderator: How quickly can it all collapse?
Arthur Demarest: Very quickly. It can happen very, very quickly. The Maya Civilization was most spectacular at around 780 to 790, 785, and by 810 it was just in pieces. 800 in a lot of places, so it can happen really, really quickly. It's often happened slowly in one part and then that reaches a critical point and then it just runs through the whole system which is what happened also with the Maya.
Slowly at first, then all at once.
San Francisco. Most spectacular around Y2K?
Updated link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/20 ... o-collapse
55: Here Are The Signs That A Civilization Is About To Collapse
All great civilizations eventually collapse. It's inevitable. So what are the signs of their demise? On the latest edition of Odd Lots, we speak with Arthur Demarest, a professor at Vanderbilt University who specializes in the end of civilization. Demarest is an anthropologist and archaeologist who's most well known for his work on the Mayans. He tells us about his work, what he's learned -- and what we should be watching out for today.
Nov 18, 2016
25:54 at this link.
Summary of Demarest's Interview
There are counterproductive patterns leaders almost always try as society nears collapse.
Leaders do more of and intensify what they do; leaders do short term thinking, fast reactions and fast solutions trying to hold onto power.
Hypercoherence is better integration leading to better decision making and greater wealth, but if there's a problem in one part of the system it can radiate through and bring the whole thing down. Because of business competition, the response is more and more integration. Cutting down on hypercoherence causes profit loss.
Status rivalry drives leaders to try to establish something great, which appears to compensate for the decline. We get these periods that look amazing but they're actually a phenomenon of decline. Things look better and better but actually are getting more and more fragile.
Entanglement theory says that previously great infrastructure was built but as you lose resources you're dependent on this system you can't maintain and that's impossible to really scale back. For example, you can't maintain just some of the Interstate system and let some roads go. People won't accept that.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.