Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

Wagner in Mexico H and other red circles.
Look ahead is going to get low noise.
Containment. Pay attention get log three.

[Higgenbotham]

Also, the rural areas of the midwest that have high social capital, homogeneous (mostly white) populations, and low dependence on government handouts are very dependent on fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, complex farm machinery, and irrigation for large farming operations. The breakdown will not be easy to deal with anywhere.

That needs to be clarified. Low dependence on food stamps and SS, etc. But probably very high dependence on ag subsidies (how high I don't know). One of my distant relatives in Western Iowa is proud of the fact that they are one of the few farmers they know who don't take subsidies.



https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/20 ... der-trump/

It can be seen here that, for example, whereas a lot of food stamp dollars are going into Eastern and Central Kentucky, Eastern and Central Kentucky is one area where the farm subsidy dollars aren't going.

[Cool Breeze]

https://web.archive.org/web/20230802225 ... cated.html

"Something suddenly came up."

Maybe (little hat) Brooks is redeemable after all.

In your opinion, Higgy, is it worth it to have children at all at this point? Or is that plan better or more viable in 2030 or in a different part of the world after the rebuild?

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=NIGER+POWER+LOSSES&ia=web
The 15-minute nuts will be gone in 15 days. Your task is 30 days to 3 months.

Do you agree with Aeden? If this kind of thing doesn't happen by 2028 (or you give the date as I've said in my other posts), will you declare that you don't really have a good idea of what is going on? Just curious. At what point is incessant fear mongering about the coming darkness, dark age, or mad max world incorrect? Can you just keep saying it forever? I've noticed a lot of newsletter guys on finance and prepping do on the internet and youtube, and coincidentally they make a lot of money. Hmm.

[aeden]

List one outside link to commercial or personal interest for profit other than selco who survived technocracy's
snake coils and the fact the Senate is being crushed from Central Banks and related to failure.
When the Californians go on strike it takes out LA and they likely will not survive. They are broke ass smoked as planned.
Our local budget of 82 million was pissed away as infrastructure rots to implosion and the tranq flesh rotted insane homerless increase.
You query is comedy gold if it was not so damned naïve as they appear to be enabling conscription.
You should of bought GE from the file noted and started and funded business. No you have not and will not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_87AoQaKNw

Over 10000 have been debanked. The book is written by Mr. Wood.
I suggest you awake. I have no wheat in to bale straw for your man.
Just trefoil I should of doubled as we decided to let more soil rest.
Another 300 day window is here from the 9th of AV

The wife is out to assist the infirm and broken.

Good luck Pilgrim.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j73OsXo19vI

[Guest]

Also, the rural areas of the midwest that have high social capital, homogeneous (mostly white) populations, and low dependence on government handouts are very dependent on fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, complex farm machinery, and irrigation for large farming operations. The breakdown will not be easy to deal with anywhere.

That needs to be clarified. Low dependence on food stamps and SS, etc. But probably very high dependence on ag subsidies (how high I don't know). One of my distant relatives in Western Iowa is proud of the fact that they are one of the few farmers they know who don't take subsidies.

It can be seen here that, for example, whereas a lot of food stamp dollars are going into Eastern and Central Kentucky, Eastern and Central Kentucky is one area where the farm subsidy dollars aren't going.

Yes, but the rural poor know how to live off the land. I've seen teenagers in the mountains rebuild car engines along with most of car--by themselves. Most people in cities can'y even start a fire or cook their own food without a microwave. Poor rural whites can usually hunt. My mother lived off of the game my grandfather (a Cherokee Indian) hunted himself. My mother told me she didn't think anything of it until she got to college and all the meat in cafeteria tasted funny.

Yes, it will be unbelievably bad for everyone, but I would rather have neighbors whose first inclination was not to loot the local Target and burn down the city around them.

I know I don't want to be a city with a high minority population in a SHTF scenario. Those who don't understand this will be killed...or worse.

[Higgenbotham]

In your opinion, Higgy, is it worth it to have children at all at this point? Or is that plan better or more viable in 2030 or in a different part of the world after the rebuild?

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=NIGER+POWER+LOSSES&ia=web
The 15-minute nuts will be gone in 15 days. Your task is 30 days to 3 months.

Do you agree with Aeden? If this kind of thing doesn't happen by 2028 (or you give the date as I've said in my other posts), will you declare that you don't really have a good idea of what is going on? Just curious. At what point is incessant fear mongering about the coming darkness, dark age, or mad max world incorrect? Can you just keep saying it forever? I've noticed a lot of newsletter guys on finance and prepping do on the internet and youtube, and coincidentally they make a lot of money. Hmm.

You're asking a lot of questions that have dependencies attached to them.

My base case set of predictions made in 2018 is copied below. If you want to, you could underline or list the specific ones you have a question about.

You referred to some time frames and dates. I've only attached times to things for which I have a higher level of confidence.

[*] There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.

[*] The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.

[*] There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.

[*] Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.

[*] The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.

[*] Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.

[Higgenbotham]

The timeline also indicates that the ascending Kali Yuga, which is the current epoch in which we are living, will end in 2025 CE. The full manifestation of the next Yuga – the ascending Dwapara – will take place in 2325 CE, after a transitional period of 300 years.

According to the Yuga Cycle doctrine, the transitional periods between the Yugas are associated with a collapse of civilisations and environmental catastrophes (pralaya), which wipe out virtually every trace of any human civilisation.

https://www.newdawnmagazine.com/article ... yuga-cycle

[Cool Breeze]

In your opinion, Higgy, is it worth it to have children at all at this point? Or is that plan better or more viable in 2030 or in a different part of the world after the rebuild?

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=NIGER+POWER+LOSSES&ia=web
The 15-minute nuts will be gone in 15 days. Your task is 30 days to 3 months.

Do you agree with Aeden? If this kind of thing doesn't happen by 2028 (or you give the date as I've said in my other posts), will you declare that you don't really have a good idea of what is going on? Just curious. At what point is incessant fear mongering about the coming darkness, dark age, or mad max world incorrect? Can you just keep saying it forever? I've noticed a lot of newsletter guys on finance and prepping do on the internet and youtube, and coincidentally they make a lot of money. Hmm.

You're asking a lot of questions that have dependencies attached to them.

My base case set of predictions made in 2018 is copied below. If you want to, you could underline or list the specific ones you have a question about.

You referred to some time frames and dates. I've only attached times to things for which I have a higher level of confidence.

[*] There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.

[*] The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.

[*] There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.

[*] Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.

[*] The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.

[*] Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.

I think the only two I don't agree with are the last two points. I think population decline, but nowhere near 90% and there will be no "dark age" but I admit I think that's hard to define and being subjective, it's not something that's meaningful to argue about.

[Cool Breeze]

The timeline also indicates that the ascending Kali Yuga, which is the current epoch in which we are living, will end in 2025 CE. The full manifestation of the next Yuga – the ascending Dwapara – will take place in 2325 CE, after a transitional period of 300 years.

According to the Yuga Cycle doctrine, the transitional periods between the Yugas are associated with a collapse of civilisations and environmental catastrophes (pralaya), which wipe out virtually every trace of any human civilisation.

https://www.newdawnmagazine.com/article ... yuga-cycle

That sounds a lot like Howe's astrology.

[Higgenbotham]

Looking at the scale of the raw numbers, the 1918 pandemic killed roughly 3% of the world population and WWII killed roughly 3% also. The bloody dictators in Europe and Asia killed a similar sized percentage of world population. This all happened over about a 50 year period. Despite this, world population continued to increase - there was no lasting reduction in population as occurred during the 14th Century.

The raw figures bring up an interesting observation, though. The longer lasting population reduction in 14th Century Europe (defining 14th Century Europe as a region relatively or completely unconnected from Asia and the Americas) was approximately 10 times the temporary world population reductions in the 20th Century.

A longer lasting reduction in population over some time scale of, say, a saeculum seems to be characteristic of a Dark Age as opposed to a normal crisis period. Naturally, this is a case of arbitrarily defining something as opposed to something else and giving it a name.

So how could a scale of population reduction that is 10 times that of the prior saeculum occur? My thesis is that a Dark Age scale population reduction can only come about through large scale individual moral and institutional failure. This is harder to quantify, but my previous post describes what that looks like as opposed to typical crisis period failure.

Most people think that the solution to this is easy - just get Democrats in everywhere, or just get Republicans in everywhere, just get rid of Trump (or Putin or Xi), or just get Biden out of there, or plug in your favorite available solution. Maybe it's the Greens, maybe it's the Libertarians, or what have you, Marine Le Pen in France, but the belief is it's out there right now.

What will stop the decline in population is putting appropriate morals and institutions in place that are compatible with the times and technology, which then translate to good governance. I've already described the only available solution for good governance that exists in the world today - the village elders. Even though that's the best available solution, getting to that is also a prescription for my predicted population loss. Until there is something better than that, and there's nothing even remotely on the horizon, the population loss will march on decade after decade. Meanwhile, every available governance method will be tried and they will all fail.

To solve the problems that are discussed in this Dark Age Hovel will require a massive redirection in thinking on a scale that is larger than ever before in the history of the world, and humanity is nowhere close to thinking that any redirection whatsoever is even necessary. The few who do think that are cast off to the side so the oligarchs who have circled the earth can continue to capitalize on the collapse.

If the sixty years seemed full of brilliance and adventure to a few at the top, to most they were a succession of wayward dangers; of the three galloping evils, pillage, plague, and taxes; of fierce and tragic conflicts, bizarre fates, capricious money, sorcery, betrayals, insurrections, murder, madness, and the downfall of princes; of dwindling labor for the fields, of cleared land reverting to waste; and always the recurring black shadow of pestilence carrying its message of guilt and sin and the hostility of God.

Mankind was not improved by the message. Consciousness of wickedness made behavior worse. Violence threw off restraints. It was a time of default. Rules crumbled, institutions failed in their functions. Knighthood did not protect; the Church, more worldly than spiritual, did not guide the way to God; the towns, once agents of progress and the commonweal, were absorbed in mutual hostilities and divided by class war; the population, depleted by the Black Death, did not recover. The war of England and France and the brigandage it spawned revealed the emptiness of chivalry's military pretensions and the falsity of its moral ones. The schism shook the foundations of the central institution, spreading a deep and pervasive uneasiness. People felt subject to events beyond their control, swept like flotsam at sea, hither and yon in a universe without reason or purpose. They lived through a period which suffered and struggled without visible advance. They longed for remedy, for a revival of faith, for stability and order that never came.

The times were not static. Loss of confidence in the guarantors of order opened the way to demands for change, and miseria gave force to the impulse. The oppressed were no longer enduring but rebelling, although, like the bourgeois who tried to compel reform, they were inadequate, unready, and unequipped for the task. Marcel could not impose good government, neither could the Good Parliament. The Jacques could not overthrow the nobles, the popolo minuto of Florence could not advance their status, the English peasants were betrayed by their King; every working-class insurrection was crushed.

Yet change, as always, was taking place. Wyclif and the protestant movement were the natural consequence of default by the church. Monarchy, centralized government, the national state gained in strength, whether for good or bad. Seaborne enterprise, liberated by the compass, was reaching toward the voyages of discovery that were to burst the confines of Europe and find the New World. Literature from Dante to Chaucer was expressing itself in national languages, ready for the great leap forward in print. In the year Enguerrand de Coucy died, Johan Gutenberg was born, although that in itself marked no turn of the tide. The ills and disorders of the 14th Century could not be without consequence. Times were to grow worse over the next fifty-odd years, until at some imperceptible moment, by some mysterious chemistry, energies were refreshed, ideas broke out of the mold of the Middle Ages into new realms, and humanity found itself redirected.

A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century
1978