Sudanese Nuer distinguish money
Money of Cattle - Money acquired through the sale of cattle (compare to GOLD)
Money of Work - Money acquired through labor, can be used to purchase cattle (compare to SILVER)
Money of Shit - Money acquired disposing of the waste of household bucket latrines, useless for purchasing cattle (not considered sufficient for something as important as cattle) (compare to BITCOIN)
Think about it harder. What farmer is going to risk his life selling cattle for BITCOIN?
A long way down to go. It's a long way to ZERO, as Bitcoin is slightly different from tulips on the way down - it has no residual value.
Bitcoin. Don't be wowed.
This is starting to be like Taleb, who was a smart guy until he got all egotistical and went against all of his well written and interesting books. He biffed on covid. He then turned on BTC.
People with that big of blindspots can't be trusted anymore for analysis. They either know better and have some larger, deceitful plan, or they are just plain bad at recognizing things any longer, for whatever the reason.
Sadly, you share something with him. Or many things.
I debunked how stupid the tulip thing was years ago. It's easily one of the dumbest corollaries given, and it's funny because both you and John love it. Embarrassing.
I will get the last laugh, which is the best part. I'm wondering, though, what will you say when we see all time highs again next year or in 2025?
It's "tulips" but for 3x, then 4x the time period. Will you say that people are stupid for zooming out on the chart and all they see is UP AND TO THE RIGHT?
Dr. Cariboo hard at work explaining Bitcoin to new recruits.
Don't be wowed. Bitcoin is tulips without the tulips plain and simple.
Cool Breeze is just some starry eyed random bozo who thinks he will get rich on Bitcoin ("I'm going to be a Bitcoin billionaire" - yeah, right) so he can dominate people. Not gonna happen.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
By the way, yes, I'm down on my shorting of the Daq and the Russell, but most of my short position (over 80%) is Russell, and I've been DCAing into that. I do not see a bright Q3-4, and I see a very, very bad 2024 economically, so I'm not worried at all.
The better part than that, which is a call regarding timing (not the reality of the fake and stagflationary economy here and coming to a theater near you) - thus difficult as you know - is that I'm a BTC billionaire, and most of you don't even know it. I suggest you join the club before it's too late. Next year will be too late.
Cool Breeze is out of touch with reality.
With so many nut cases like this running around it's no wonder we're heading face first into the reality of a new dark age.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
The Glubb report keeps resonating with me with the 250 years average empire lifespan. Although some previous empires just shifted from one form to another. What's the probability that we have a short (generation length) brutal collapse and then rebuild quickly like previous fourth turnings?
Rebuild as what, Mexico?
If things are as bad as so many of the hysterics on this site indicate, anything is possible.
All money will end up worthless in the new dark age.
Bitcoin will go to ZERO first.
Bitcoin. Don't be wowed. Don't be hysterical. It's just tulips without the tulips.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Supply input growth stall is the lightswitch notes as we watch the Taylor rule.
The Cantillon effect will be brutal on these true believers. Sold some oil calls Friday
to hedge September. The discussion was you're a might early. The map indicated
the peak from inversion YCC as they got simply destroyed.
All money will end up worthless in the new dark age.
Bitcoin will go to ZERO first.
I understand your dire or doom predictions. I am considering them.
But I asked you, what would prove you wrong about BTC?
Also, how long would we have to plug along, without anything dire really happeing, for your Dark Age prediction to be wrong or irrelevant?
It's all going down right now, in slow motion. Once enough actors start doing something, it will cascade. Africa, middle east then the Pacific. Merging fires.
Regarding finances, Howe describes pretty well what to expect. Financial assets turned into war bonds.
In August 1929, were there signs of economic weakness or crisis approach? If so, what were they?
============================================================================================
Yes, before the stock market crash in October 1929, which marked the beginning of the Great Depression, there were several signs of economic weakness and impending crisis in the months leading up to the crash. Some of these signs included:
Speculative Bubble: By the late 1920s, stock prices were highly inflated. There was a speculative bubble, particularly in the stock market, as people borrowed heavily to buy stocks hoping to sell them at a profit.
Declining Production: Industries such as construction and automobile manufacturing declined by late 1928 and 1929.
Agricultural Sector Distress: The agricultural sector was distressed throughout the 1920s. Prices for farm products were low, leading to widespread foreclosures on farms.
High Levels of Debt: Consumer debt was rising because new forms of credit, like installment plans, were becoming more popular. Businesses and consumers were heavily leveraged, making them more susceptible to economic downturns.
Bank Failures: Smaller banks, in particular, failed in the late 1920s due to bad loans and a declining agricultural sector.
Uneven Distribution of Wealth: A significant portion of the American population didn't participate in the prosperity of the 1920s. The rich got richer, but the middle class and the poor didn't see substantial income growth. This disparity meant that when consumer spending began to slow down, there needed to be more consumers to pick up the slack.
International Trade Issues: The U.S. was facing declining export markets. As other countries faced economic problems, they bought fewer American products.
Tight Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve, fearing inflation and wanting to curb stock market speculation, raised interest rates in 1928 and 1929, which made borrowing more expensive and could slow down economic activity.
Early Stock Market Volatility: The stock market had already shown signs of instability in March and again in August of 1929 before the major crash in October.
Declining Consumer Spending and Confidence: By mid-1929, there were clear signs of declining consumer spending. People were beginning to cut back on purchases, especially for expensive items like cars.
While it's essential to understand that not everyone recognized these signs at the time, in retrospect, many of these issues were indicators of the significant economic downturn that was about to occur.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
I'm loaded short now. It seems reasonable at this point to say that the manipulators have created most of the pain that they will be able to. The bears keep promising "any day now" as they have for weeks while some bulls have recently appeared calling for new market highs. The pop over 4200 today should have cleaned out some stops and turned some participants bullish who were previously bearish, which would minimally be what the manipulators tried to achieve.
I took a draw April 11 to pay taxes (the market barely moved that day) and as of today am holding a little above the worst equity levels of April, even though the market is about 50 points higher, while adding to shorts. As of today's close, I have the largest short position of any close this year.
I'm not ready to proclaim the end of the stock market rally.
This week has been like any other week as I try to be prepared for a move over 4200, if it comes. Scalping individual stocks, covering some shorts and re-establishing on rallies. I've cut my short position 5.5% from Friday. That piece of it won't go back on unless there is a new high for the year.
The changes I made today were to add 17% to my short position and to stop making any trades from the long side on individual stocks until the market settles on a direction. At the May 2008 high, the S&P pierced the upper Bollinger Band then reversed intraday. Today the S&P traded above the Bollinger Band most of the day but did not reverse. I've also been considering the possibility of an early July high and am ready for that. At today's close, my account is down on the year for the first time this year, down 0.4% on the year.
Lottery Economy Update
It's been awhile since the last Lottery Economy Update. Since the last update, I have not been able to cash in on the lottery economy, but haven't thrown my tickets away either. I've been buying more tickets by slowly shorting more and more S&P double inverse funds as the market rises. About 2/3 of my account is in the S&P double inverse funds, 1/3 in cash. That means my account is 133% short, which is probably too much. Loaded as referred to above was probably somewhere around 100%. It was noted in the last lottery economy update that my account was down 0.4% on the year. That loss has increased to down 3% on the year as of today.
This window is another area from which the S&P could top and it's also a crash setup. That doesn't mean I'll be taking that last 1/3 and putting all of the account into double inverse shorts, but if the market does start to crash next week I will take advantage of it to the best of my ability.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
