Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

H note: Despite having written the above, it should be noted that Avi seems to be bullish on the S&P. According to this article he is favoring a run to 4800, then to somewhere around 5600 next year as shown in the chart at the end of this article:

matches our current belated sweep map thought
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=82609#p82609
not biting as regression maps are clear also in our view for erp
not picking on burry he is a brilliant mind
data fragility mentioned before
rope burn mentioned before to mind the gap as velvit rope files we indicated

[Higgenbotham]

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
Hardcover – June 13, 2023

by Peter Turchin


The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.

In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.

https://www.amazon.com/End-Times-Counte ... 407&sr=8-1

[Guest]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/def ... carjacking

'Defund The Police' Democrat Politician Left With Broken Leg, Bloodied Face, After Violent Carjacking In Minnesota

The second vice chairwoman for Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, who previously vowed to "dismantle" the Minneapolis Police Department amid widespread Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests, is now calling for tougher crime laws after she was violently carjacked this week.

"Look at my face. REMEMBER ME when you are thinking about supporting letting juveniles and young people out of custody to roam our streets instead of HOLDING THEM ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS," the Democrat wrote.

Too bad it's too late to stop this. Just saying.

[Higgenbotham]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/def ... carjacking

'Defund The Police' Democrat Politician Left With Broken Leg, Bloodied Face, After Violent Carjacking In Minnesota

The second vice chairwoman for Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, who previously vowed to "dismantle" the Minneapolis Police Department amid widespread Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests, is now calling for tougher crime laws after she was violently carjacked this week.

"Look at my face. REMEMBER ME when you are thinking about supporting letting juveniles and young people out of custody to roam our streets instead of HOLDING THEM ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS," the Democrat wrote.

Too bad it's too late to stop this. Just saying.

As the new dark age picks up speed, she will call the police and nobody will come. The thugs will call their friends and more will come.

[Guest]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/def ... carjacking

'Defund The Police' Democrat Politician Left With Broken Leg, Bloodied Face, After Violent Carjacking In Minnesota

The second vice chairwoman for Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, who previously vowed to "dismantle" the Minneapolis Police Department amid widespread Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests, is now calling for tougher crime laws after she was violently carjacked this week.

"Look at my face. REMEMBER ME when you are thinking about supporting letting juveniles and young people out of custody to roam our streets instead of HOLDING THEM ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS," the Democrat wrote.

Too bad it's too late to stop this. Just saying.

As the new dark age picks up speed, she will call the police and nobody will come. The thugs will call their friends and more will come.

THIS.

[aeden]

Estimated implosion rather assured after the march 2024 sweeps for the x date sweeps.
Cannot be stopped. Planned demolition.
WEF uniparty infiltrations complete.
No one will miss ford gm or the other one already forgotten, rotted outhouses. Priced out.
Germans workers remembered what inflation did to them. Implosion. Americans workers past the crushed
phase to be ground to dust. Jpow and the fed will be run over like a 6 week old kitten on the interstate.
Ruhr and inflation period of the captivated collapse fools.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=amXmHD7LwVA village collapses

[aeden]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-polit ... ades-dump/ blade dunps
Massive greenmask and watermellon lies.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/lie
The only lie larger is the dnc sane.

Capital Recovery Factor white papers told you to run like a scalded dog as sunk costs spreading like a prairie fire
since the 'The Cantillion effect is over.

[Higgenbotham]

For the Lottery Economy files.

But the impact of the rise of the subscription model on the media has been staggering. It has changed the way that people do business — not just the businesses themselves, but the would-be employees and contractors. Just look at this quote from British journalist Emma Gannon, given to Press Gazette, who has 26,000 subscribers to her lucrative Substack: “One of my passions really is talking about writers being paid fairly — and not just that, but even thriving and making a really good living from writing and creativity — because I think in the past people have often viewed it as a hobby or just a nice to have”.

She credits Substack with offering that — a nice idea, and one, perhaps, that’s easy to imagine at 26,000 subscribers. Certainly, Gannon is not alone in having this experience with Substack, and I imagine it feels liberating for journalists who have previously been constrained by things like “contracts” and “editors”. In its early days, Substack was aggressive in providing its top — partner — writers with economic security: anecdotally I heard that they were offering 1.5x the salary of the magazines/newspapers that they were poaching columnists from.

The question is not “can you make money with Substack?” or “can you find an audience with Substack?” but what the averages are. Substack’s CEO, Hamish McKenzie, has been quoted as putting the number of Substack subscribers at “millions”, which is not hugely helpful. Globally, the figure was pitched at about 500,000 paying subscribers in 2021, according to Nieman Lab. According to Axios there are more than 17,0000 writers running paying Substacks (including mine) and the Top 10 publishers earned more than $25m last year.

Very good, I’m sure. Substack’s own figures also refer to $300m paid out to writers, though that doesn’t claim to be an “annual” figure (as the $25m is). But let’s assume it is, for simplicity’s sake. That leaves $275m to be disbursed between 16,975 writers, which, if shared equally, would be $16,200 a piece. A nice side hustle, if not a living.

But if the Top 10 publishers are making roughly $2.5m a piece, let’s also assume that the rest of the Top 100 (the top 0.59% of Substack paid writers) are making $500,000 on average. Then we lose another $45m and $230m is left to be shared between 16,000 (suddenly the average earning, if distributed equitably, is down to $13,609). You can repeat this exercise as many times as it takes you to realise that the average writer of a paid Substack is earning next to nothing. And probably that means that they’re broadcasting to next to nobody.

While these thoughts were floating around about Substack — which is currently running a fundraising round encouraging writers to invest in the platform — OnlyFans, the UK based membership service for *cough* fans, released its 2022 financials. The headlines were a $5.6bn spend on-site last year, of which the site takes a 20% cut before distributing to creators. Which means roughly $4.5bn was disbursed by OnlyFans to its 3.2m creators (a figure that’s up a staggering 47% from 2021).

Distributed equally across all creators, this would be a mere $1,406 per person. But, like Substack, OnlyFans is, of course, not divided equally. In fact, the inequalities are even more stark. Top earners on OnlyFans can make almost as much as the Top 10 earners on Substack combined. Blac Chyna, rumoured to be the top earner, was said to have made $20m, annually, from the platform. (Other publications claim she makes $20m a month which seems like crazy money, even for softcore pornography).

Again, the point here is that the subscriber side of the creator economy can be hugely lucrative, but the average earnings are almost certainly prohibitively minute. And unlike Substack, unsuccessful creators on OnlyFans don’t just have an archive of inane ramblings to show as evidence of their failed project. Likely, they have, instead, an archive of material which may create personal or professional issues in the future. All for gas money.

https://nickfthilton.medium.com/the-end ... 197f252c6a

[aeden]

Excellent per capita zone report H. Blowouts are close. Already as the sticky wage was 1.2 Million Native-Born Workers Lost Their Jobs, And Were Replaced With 668K Foreign. The lifeboat of the over debted will be a slaughterhouse. Tbills as noted 80 percent of face rolled back to shorter dated open bid also. Ugly is closer than they even want to fathom. The Equity risk Premium numbers is another chapter moving in hard to ignore.

Hold my beer https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=qWbVyCuO

[Higgenbotham]

The author of the report is thinking about the Lottery Economy correctly in my opinion. Substack and OnlyFans are extreme examples of wide income distribution, but the entire economy has devolved to a Lottery Economy. There is the example on a previous page of the engineering student who was doing everything right in the conventional sense but was unable to get hired for an internship. It appeared he was surprised by this, but he shouldn't have been. The correct way to think about getting a college degree in the Lottery Economy is, with elite overproduction, there will not be enough available seats for all degree holders, even for engineers, and the process for who gets those seats will be more random than people would like to think (a pandemic hits the year you graduate, for example). Engineering schools and others will publicize the average starting salary for an engineer at about $80,000 currently. That is not the true average; it is the average for those who fill the available seats. Still, I think the premium for obtaining the degree and getting a seat at the table is enough that placement rates would have to fall below about 30% before kids who are capable would consider not playing the STEM lottery based on monetary considerations alone.