Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

Suggest a few specifics. What technologies do you fear?

Before checking this thread this morning, it came to mind that several dozen pages back, I had mentioned the industrial grain milling complexes in the Roman Empire. More and more Roman industrial complexes have been discovered recently. A reasonable question would be that if the Romans were moving forward with industrial technology, why did they collapse? What were the factors that were causing them to move backward?

I don't know the answer to those questions. I can only speculate. It might be that it was some form of overreach, that the Romans weren't focusing on protecting the core of their civilization and were instead getting too far ahead of themselves with technologies that were draining resources away from the core. I suspect that's the case.

So, to answer the question, the technologies I fear are any technologies that serve to drain resources away from the core, necessary functions required to sustain our civilization.

From the recent post by the Archdruid (again):

The costs of creating capital are generally well accounted for in complex human societies, but the costs of maintaining capital? In theory, sure; in practice, not so much. The more complex a human society becomes, the more of its resources and its existing capital have to be put into the process of maintaining its capital stocks. Some old capital gets turned into waste—buildings are torn down, ghost towns are abandoned, kerosene lamps end up gathering dust in junktique malls—but much of it remains in place because the costs of replacing it are too high. Consider the water pipes under New York City, which are so old and dilapidated that at least a quarter of the water that goes into the system leaks out before it reaches anyone’s tap. Could they be replaced? Not without digging up most of the city at fantastic cost.

One part of imperial America’s capital stock, decaying in the usual manner.

I've mentioned this problem and other related problems like cross contamination of leaking sewage and drinking water pipes. A solution is not out of reach, but sufficient resources aren't being directed toward a solution.

Side note:

As adjectives the difference between wary and afraid is that

Wary is cautious of danger; carefully watching and guarding against deception, artifices, and dangers; timorously or suspiciously prudent; circumspect; scrupulous; careful

While afraid is impressed with fear or apprehension; in fear.

Wary would be the more accurate characterization.

[Bob Butler]

I've mentioned this problem and other related problems like cross contamination of leaking sewage and drinking water pipes. A solution is not out of reach, but sufficient resources aren't being directed toward a solution.

That particular example, decaying pipes under cities, would expand more broadly into maintaining aging infrastructure. Some of that was done with Bidenomics, mostly aimed at fixing bridges and roads. I could only think someone decided bridges were more in disrepair than pipes, or that the cost to benefit ratio was different. I can sympathize that pipes are a legitimate long term problem.

The twist is that usually the progressives are saying to fix the problem, the conservatives to stay the same, to not spend money. The conservatives in recent years have suggested people don’t need to take precautions against Covid, we do not need to stop police from shooting minorities, we don’t need to stop gerrymandering or other questionable voting practices. White voters should use the government to enforce their religious practices. Black history should not be taught in schools. Prejudice against the LGBQ community should be exaggerated.

If the S&H crisis mechanism is emphasized, the people have to mobilize and protest to force the govermenent to do something. Quash colonial imperialism. End slavery. Stop Hitler. All of the recent examples of criminal activity, prejudice, white supremacy and basic disease control resulted in large vocal protests which seem needed to force the government to do something. Amid all that ruckus, pipes didn’t make it. There were other bigger problems of immediate concern. Not to say that might change someday.

About 25 years ago, the state of MA created a new law that one’s well had to be a certain distance from the nearest sewer system. Thus in our case, we had to dig a new well. Some of the problems you suggest are being dealt with by some parts of the government, even if it is by requiring private owners to spend money. But I agree not enough is being done to force the government to do the spending.

But if you suggest one example of a core function that is not being funded, you seem to suggest no new technology that might draw the funds away without the people protesting to demand it.

[Higgenbotham]

It might be that it was some form of overreach, that the Romans weren't focusing on protecting the core of their civilization and were instead getting too far ahead of themselves with technologies that were draining resources away from the core. I suspect that's the case.

Demarest off the cuff.

https://www.arthurdemarest.com/collapse ... s-today-2/

"You know what's going to bring our civilization down?...the byproducts of our incredible technology, our wonderfully successful capitalist economic system, our tremendous linking through communications and information systems, and the spread of democracy. That's what's gonna bring us down. The combination of all those things has caused a real boom which will lead to a giant, giant bust."

"So, you know, we're collapsing. But I'm not just a grumpy old man, we're collapsing. Although it sounds like it. I'm an expert on the collapse of 18 civilizations and we're collapsing. We've got everything. We've got every single fucking cause of collapse you could want except radical climate change and that's beginning. So, but as I've told you, don't worry about global warming. We won't make it far enough for that to be a problem. I think the wars are going to be the end of everything but only because the infrastructure's so vulnerable because of hypercoherence and technology it's also fragile."

I think at the apex of a civilization the evidence of overreach extends far and wide, beyond just the commonly used term "imperial overreach".
Demarest doesn't make it totally clear what he means by "You know what's going to bring our civilization down?...the byproducts of our incredible technology" but it seems pretty clear in this quote and others that he is referring more to overreach than some other byproduct such as a technological accident.

I previously summarized another of Demarest's apparent references to overreach:

Updated link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/20 ... o-collapse

Status rivalry drives leaders to try to establish something great, which appears to compensate for the decline. We get these periods that look amazing but they're actually a phenomenon of decline. Things look better and better but actually are getting more and more fragile.

The evidence of overreach I've most frequently referred to is Bernanke's (and now his successors) wild money printing and backstopping, which has exceeded anything done since the events leading up to the fall of the Bardi or maybe even anything in all of history.

[aeden]

Facilities and Utilities Technology Leader
$127,000 - $160,000 a year
Orchestrates audits of critical infrastructure to create capital long range plans
Reviews and advises projects on technical design to match company standards
Maintains relationships with 3rd party Engineering Service Providers (ESPs)
Supports facility managers with troubleshooting and root cause analysis as well as training/building capability in facility and utilities systems to plant facility managers
Maintains regional view of projects to provide strategic reapplication of solutions.

Bachelors’ degree in Engineering and 6-8 years’ experience OR no degree and 10-15 years’ experience
Excellent knowledge of Supply Chain operations and engineering
Proven ability to work cross functionally with many different stakeholders and influence at all levels of the organization
Experienced in budgets to plan effectively, proactively solves problems, identifies and shares opportunities and issues
Ability to travel up to 50%.

This was done last year.
What needs to be done and silo information cults will not make it. What not why.
For three things bad you will find out one what gets it. The rest are failed in place already.

[Higgenbotham]

Overreach extends into everyday life too, encompassing almost all of it, in my opinion.

The example that stands out in my mind was about 15 years ago I got up early to go running and decided to go to the local high school track, thinking nobody could possibly be there yet. When I got there, perhaps about 6:20 a.m., it was still dark but the parking lot was lit up and buzzing with activity. The marching band was practicing.

I don't believe overscheduling kids in this manner will lead to better outcomes. More likely it will lead to burnout, or maybe it already has.



https://www.ksjbam.com/2022/02/23/state ... ugh-sleep/

[aeden]

Never argue with someone who's TV is bigger than their bookshelf.
Rules to live by as we tutored with STEM with with like minded during lockdowns.

[Higgenbotham]

KEY FINDINGS ON TRENDS FROM 2011 TO 2021

As we have seen in our previous reports, several
areas of adolescent health and well-being are
continuing to improve overall, including risky
sexual behavior (i.e., ever and current sexual
activity and having four or more lifetime sexual
partners) and substance use (i.e., ever used
select illicit drugs, ever misused prescription
opioids, current alcohol use, and current
marijuana use). We also saw a decrease in the
proportion of youth who were bullied at school.

Unfortunately, almost all other indicators
of health and well-being in this report
including protective sexual behaviors
(i.e., condom use, sexually transmitted
disease (STD) testing, and HIV testing),
experiences of violence, mental health,
and suicidal thoughts and behaviors
worsened significantly.

Several experiences of violence are
increasing, especially for certain groups
of youth. These data show increases in the
proportion of youth who did not go to school
because of safety concerns, increases among
female students experiencing sexual violence
by anyone and being forced to have sex, and
increases among male students experiencing
electronic bullying.

As we saw in the 10 years prior to the
COVID-19 pandemic, mental health
among students overall continues to
worsen, with more than 40% of high
school students feeling so sad or hopeless
that they could not engage in their
regular activities for at least two weeks
during the previous year—a possible
indication of the experience of depressive
symptoms. We also saw significant
increases in the percentage of youth who
seriously considered suicide, made a
suicide plan, and attempted suicide.

KEY FINDINGS ON DISPARITIES

Although these trends highlight progress and
challenges during the past decade, a closer look
at 2021 data reveals that subsets of students
have very different experiences, some better and
some far worse.

Across almost all measures of substance
use, experiences of violence, mental
health, and suicidal thoughts and
behaviors, female students are faring
more poorly than male students. These
differences, and the rates at which female
students are reporting such negative
experiences, are stark.

In 2021, nearly 30% of female students drank
alcohol during the past 30 days. Almost 20% of
female students experienced sexual violence
by anyone during the past year and 14% had ever
been physically forced to have sex. Although these
numbers are high, the rates of poor mental
health and suicidal thoughts and behaviors are
even higher. In 2021, almost 60% of female students
experienced persistent feelings of sadness or
hopelessness during the past year and nearly 25%
made a suicide plan.

https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/y ... 23_508.pdf

[Bob Butler]

Hmm. Still thinking murderous cops, insurrections, advocating pandemics and editing minority history can hold their own against rusting pipes and early morning band practices. These are real enough problems, but I don't see that the general public chose wrong on what has to be forced on the government. It is a more a matter of fixing on unimportant things to keep attention away from the problems in the GOP.

[FullMoon]

Gosh. That was so stupid that it doesn't deserve a reply. Insanity of the die hard believers is a sad cultish curse. No amount of reason, logic or facts can penetrate their belief structure. We know that they will regret such folly some day. 8 don't think it will be machete gangs. It will be starving groups who take their food and when it's gone eat them as well.

[Higgenbotham]

Hmm. Still thinking murderous cops, insurrections, advocating pandemics and editing minority history can hold their own against rusting pipes and early morning band practices. These are real enough problems, but I don't see that the general public chose wrong on what has to be forced on the government. It is a more a matter of fixing on unimportant things to keep attention away from the problems in the GOP.

No need to worry about any of that. The ongoing collapse into the new dark age will take care of all that. That's what we're talking about and showing evidence of here.

Then you'll have a new and much worse set of problems to worry about, but no time to talk about them, if you survive the collapse.

As far as police violence, the police are operating under a siege mentality and all of the responses to that have served to make the siege mentality worse. As we collapse into the new dark age there will be a lot of pissed off and well trained and equipped ex cops and ex military to deal with. Many of the warlords in the new dark age will come from this group.

Passing the point of maximum overreach and beginning the collapse into the new dark age has nothing to do with partisan politics. Partisan politics are rarely mentioned here as having any relevance to the new dark age, except for the fact that all politicians today are liberals, it's only the degree that varies. So if you don't like Trump, think about the fact that he is just another liberal. I pointed that out previously.

The liberal welfare state is collapsing. In the big picture Trump was just another liberal. He spent copious amounts of money and ran up copious amounts of debt, just less than the far left liberals. A conservative position would have been to issue shoot to kill orders for illegals crossing the border, not fund a wall. Bullets are cheap. The individuals that emerge out of the coming anarchy, as Navigator suggests, will do that type of thing.

The coming anarchy is what FullMoon is describing. Many of the individuals that emerge out of that will be the ex cops and ex military.