Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

A recent article said AI was able to get a C+ on a law school exam. That is a pretty good individual effort. What percentage of individuals would be able to get a C+ or better on the same law school exam? Probably less than 0.1%. What percentage of practicing lawyers? Maybe less than 10%. However, within the society, the ability to do much better than C+ work exists and the absolute numbers of people who can do that are not small. The question, I think, is whether the current C+ level ability can be used anywhere in the near future to fill gaps in knowledge and, if so, whether the gaps that can be filled exceed the losses that are happening in the work force due to the aging of the peak baby boomers.

[Higgenbotham]

As baby boomers retire, German businesses turn to robots

By Maria Martinez
October 30, 2023

At machine parts producer S&D Blech, the head of the grinding unit is retiring. With Germany's acute labour shortage leaving few candidates to take on the skilled but dirty and hazardous manual work, the company will replace him with a robot.

Some 1.7 million German jobs were unfilled in June, official data shows. The German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) says more than half of companies are struggling to fill vacancies, at an estimated cost to growth in Europe's largest economy of nearly 100 billion euros ($109 billion) per year.

But with baby boomers retiring and a new cohort - much smaller, due to low birth rates - joining the labour force, the Federal Employment Agency expects the pool of workers to shrink by 7 million people by 2035.

According to the International Federation of Robotics around 26,000 units were installed in Germany last year - a figure surpassed only in 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic slowed what had been an average of 4% annual growth.

Increasing automation also reflects the fact that robots have become easier to use, with no programming skills required. Most now come with a Human Machine Interface, a touchscreen similar to a smartphone, said Florian Andre, a co-founder of SHERPA Robotics, a start-up that focuses on companies with between 20 and 100 employees.

Even workers and trade unions, once fearful of job losses, take an increasingly positive view. A survey published by robots marketplace automatica in June found nearly half of German employees see robots as helping to address labour shortages.

ROLEC's Rose said its initial venture into automation in 2022 had come as a big backlog of orders meant employees had to work overtime and on Saturdays. "It was a good starting situation for our first robot, as it was seen as a helper instead of as competition," he added.

A spokesperson for Germany's powerful IG Metall trade union said robots adopted as part of a long-term corporate strategy, rather than to cut costs quickly, can help make work "healthier, more interesting and safer".

Lorry and bus manufacturer Daimler Truck (DTGGe.DE) makes extensive use of robotics, particularly to help with heavy lifting and other challenges to workers' physical health.

"But there is nothing more flexible than a human," said Michael Brecht, chairman of the company's works council.

"The more complex the production, the more differentiated, the harder it becomes to use robots."

https://www.reuters.com/technology/baby ... 023-10-27/

[Higgenbotham]

The Silent Crisis — Why Baby Boomer-Owned Businesses Need a Revival Strategy Now

Tech and AI-driven innovation is revealing a silent crisis. Baby boomer-owned businesses, especially in blue-collar industries, once the backbone of the economy, are facing unprecedented challenges.

BY MAREK NIEDZWIEDZ • OCT 26, 2023

Key Takeaways
As seasoned baby boomer entrepreneurs approach their retirement, many are finding their businesses in stress or distress.
The need for a revival strategy has never been more pressing.

Baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, have been instrumental in shaping the industrial landscape of the Western world. They've built businesses from the ground, weathered economic storms and employed millions. However, with technological advancements, changing consumer preferences, a highly globalized economy and inflation, many of these businesses are finding it hard to stay afloat.

The challenges are complex. Many blue-collar businesses have been slow to adopt new technologies, not to mention the latest AI solutions, making them less competitive. As baby boomers retire, there's a noticeable gap in skilled labor, with younger generations often gravitating towards tech-driven roles. Also, global competition, online marketplaces and changing consumer habits have impacted "traditional" business models.

Obviously, baby boomer entrepreneurs have faced economic challenges in the past. However, the current landscape presents a unique set of hurdles. High leverage in the economy, soaring interest rates and inflation have created a volatile environment. Add to this the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it's clear that businesses are navigating unexplored waters.

Many businesses have taken on significant debt to expand or sustain operations. With the tightening of global financial conditions, servicing this debt has become increasingly challenging, leading to liquidity crunches. Rising interest rates have increased borrowing costs or, lately, made borrowing unachievable, while inflation has decreased purchasing power. For blue-collar businesses, this means squeezed profit margins and reduced consumer spending.

The pandemic brought about supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and reduced consumer demand. Some sectors saw a boom, but traditional blue-collar industries often faced a downturn. While baby boomers might have experience tackling individual challenges like inflation or economic downturns, the simultaneous occurrence of these issues is unprecedented. It demands a fresh approach and adaptive strategies.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/leadership ... sis/463790

[Higgenbotham]

Despite the wave of boomers returning to work after the Great Retirement, there are still 2 million more retirees than America’s workforce can handle

BY CHLOE BERGER
November 11, 2023

Baby boomers are finally getting to retire, but the workforce isn't ready for their departure.

Retirees are known for playing bingo in Florida, watching Jeopardy with religious fervor, and voting at every election. They’re less known for returning to the workforce. But right now, that’s exactly what some forlorn economists are hoping for.

https://fortune.com/2023/11/11/boomers- ... g-to-work/

[Higgenbotham]

Thinking Of Retiring? In This Economy, Companies Are Incentivizing Older Workers To Stay

Sander van ‘t Noordende
Contributor
I am CEO of the world’s largest talent company, Randstad.
Nov 13, 2023

Retiring in our sixties is a ritual many look forward to, but with the population in most industrialized nations growing older, stretching our working years may be necessary. That’s because a sweeping demographic change is happening, and its fallout will have a profound effect on the labor market and society at large.

All these developments are contributing to structural talent scarcity in the labor market. This problem will stay with us for many years to come and surely hurt economic growth if we don’t come up with practical solutions. Efforts to prop up population growth in many countries have had little success due to shifting social values. The decline in labor market participation rates also accelerated during the pandemic so fewer working-age people have stayed employed. Technology may help reduce the need for talent, but AI, automation and others may further exacerbate talent shortages due to the need for new and specialized skills.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandervant ... s-to-stay/

[Higgenbotham]

Why Hiring Baby Boomers Still Matters

By Matt Gonzales
April 17, 2023

People ages 65-72 are staying in the labor force at rates not previously seen for their age group, according to research by Pew Research Center. Further reports show that the labor force participation rate of people ages 70 and older sits at about 9 percent and is expected to rise to about 16 percent in 2035.

"We need to change our image of what retirees look like," Giles said.

While many Boomers have a lot left to give, some employers have continued to discriminate against older workers. In March, the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) sued a manufacturing and distribution company based in Ponchatoula, La., for allegedly firing an employee because of her age after she refused to retire when she turned 65 years old.

A 2021 survey by AARP revealed that nearly 80 percent of older workers say they've seen or experienced age discrimination in the workplace. That is the highest share since the organization began surveying on the topic in 2003.

However, only 20 percent of retirees say their previous employer has reached out to ask them to return due to the U.S. labor shortage, according to ResumeBuilder.com. Many retired workers said they'd consider returning to their previous employer—though some expressed interest in switching industries should they return to work.

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/ ... tters.aspx

[Higgenbotham]

Can AI Help Solve The Workforce Skills Gap?

John Schwarz
Forbes Councils Member
Forbes Technology Council

Apr 6, 2023

Stretching Talent Further

AI tools might alleviate the shortage of skilled workers by automating routine tasks and augmenting human capabilities. This has already been happening. Take cybersecurity, which is currently short about 3.4 million skilled workers globally, according to a 2022 study. To cope, organizations are turning to AI to automate the detection and response to cyber threats, freeing up cybersecurity professionals to focus on innovation.

AI could similarly address shortages in other critical professions. AI can automate administrative tasks in medicine, allowing doctors to focus their time on patients. More interestingly, AI and wearable health monitoring devices can help doctors analyze patient data more quickly and accurately, allowing for remote, faster and more accurate diagnoses.

Accelerating Training

AI can also optimize and accelerate training programs for new hires. For example, the U.K.’s National Health Service is exploring using AI to accelerate the onboarding of new healthcare professionals and help ease the worker shortage there. As innovation accelerates, this need for better training and reskilling is only growing more acute.

Companies have long deprioritized reskilling to their detriment. A 2018 study found that 44% of organizations provided no upskilling or reskilling opportunities, even though replacing a worker with a new hire typically costs about 1.5 to two times their annual income—certainly more than reskilling a willing employee.

New technology could provide a more cost-effective solution. Employers across industries can use AI to analyze training data and identify which aspects of onboarding are most effective and which need improvement. These efficiencies can yield time and cost savings, especially in high-turnover industries.

Matching Skills With Gaps

Additionally, AI tools can help identify employees with desirable skills in nontraditional places. For instance, that copywriter on the marketing team looking for a change may make an exceptional salesperson. Previously, her job title would circumscribe her prospects—limiting her career trajectory and utility inside the company. But a new generation of AI-powered skills-mapping programs can dig deep into work history, educational background and social profiles to identify transferable skills and skill gaps across roles and organizations. This increases employee mobility and offers one solution to acute talent shortages.

Skills mapping can also help organizations rethink roles by identifying skills that can be combined to create new positions and eliminate redundancies. In a context in which jobs are evolving quickly, tapping into AI can enable companies to fill gaps and promote from within.

The Limits Of AI

With the advent of AI, most white-collar roles will be impacted eventually. According to PwC researchers, about 3% of jobs are currently thought to be at a high risk of automation, but this prediction “rises to around 20% by the late 2020s, and around 30% by the mid-2030s.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestech ... kills-gap/

[Guest]

South Africa is 10x worse than any Western country and it still hasn't collapsed. Until it happens in South Africa, speculating about a collapse in the West (and the perceived benefits of such) is a escapist cope.

South Africa and Zimbabwe are staffed with Chinese, white South African, and other foreign technicians. The local Africans are incapable of maintaining high tech, or even low tech infrastructure.The Afrikaners built the finest infrastructure in the world, after almost 30 years of incompetent and corrupt black government, it's failing. SA is teetering on the edge. When Europe becomes like this, it will implode and never come back.

Take away the foreign technicians, sub-Saharan Africa will be in the dark.

This is no cope. This "load shedding" reality.

[aeden]

https://chapwoodindex.com/ review done here time to time. Reference is data fragility files.
oil, dxy, metals as inputs and transports sweeps into march. The Frankfurt cult lethal infection in Academia
make as much sense as Afdhere Jama.

[Higgenbotham]

Context:

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... tart=12380
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... tart=12390


Water bill last month.

FLAT FEE $37.76
Water Usage $13.43

It's not just water. Gas bill last month.

FLAT FEE $41.23
TAXES AND FEES $6.02
Gas Usage $8.02

These are the only available providers. They have a monopoly and in reality they are unregulated. The whisper of the shutoff valve will grow stronger year after year until, kaboom, it all falls apart.

We have deregulated electric so I read the fine print for several dozen providers and picked one that has a monthly FLAT FEE of $4.23. Electric bill last month was $31.

Total minimum FLAT FEES before using a drop of water, BTU of gas, or watt of electricity = $83.22.