Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

[FullMoon]

It looks like "civil war" domestically something akin to what's happening in GB at this time will erupt. Trump's assassination or the election itself could be triggers. But real resolution of this globally synchronized crisis will be war. It's already ongoing with Russia and only getting worse. The Middle East is about to erupt and everyone anticipates the Pacific will have some rough confrontations in order resolve the issues there. The horror of war will put all of the domestic quibbling in the backseat because Howe also has said something akin to the fact that people won't be sure that their nation and even themselves will survive the difficulties. Only the people in Ukraine can say that they're having that experience at this time.

[Bob Butler]

What present-day tensions will the next Fourth Turning resolve? Most likely, they will be Culture Wars updates of the perennial struggle between the individual and the collective—with new labels dating back to our recent Consciousness Revolution. This time, the individual ideal goes under the rubric of “choice”: from marketplace choice to lifestyle choice; from choice about manners, appearance, or association to the choice of expression and entertainment. The social ideal goes under the rubric of “community” and points to where all of the various choices must be curtailed if we wish to preserve strong families, secure borders, rising living standards, a healthy environment, and all the other building blocks of a sustainable civilization.

In today's Unraveling, with its mood of pessimism, a reconciliation between these opposing principles seems (and probably is) impossible. But come the Fourth Turning, in the white heat of society's ekpyrosis and rebirth, a grand solution may suddenly snap into place. Once a new social contract is written and a new civic order established, it could eradicate (or, at least, narrow) many of the today's seemingly insoluble contradictions—for example, between no-fault divorce and dependable families, poverty assistance and the work ethic, or gun control and personal defense.

This is a pretty good prediction of the crisis. The essence is a progressive attempt to let each group chose their own path against a conservative attempt to force an obsolete culture. It may be that the time will be remembered by “Mind your own damn business”. Freedom and choice imply people can walk their own path and ignore the formerly dominant prejudice and doctrine. The prime ideas behind the old crises are simple: independence, freedom, containment... Choice might be the most recent.

The above looks pre Nashville. No emphasis on flaws in the culture inevitably overcome by progressive ideas. There is an implication that “choices must be curtailed” which emphasized maintaining the existing culture, something that doesn’t happen in a crisis. You get progressive fixes and new values.

Still S&H did wonderful work proclaiming how turnings work. If you want to understand the rhythm of history, it is a good place to start. You just shouldn’t ignore the concept of progress, about how the culture moves on.

[Higgenbotham]

What present-day tensions will the next Fourth Turning resolve? Most likely, they will be Culture Wars updates of the perennial struggle between the individual and the collective—with new labels dating back to our recent Consciousness Revolution. This time, the individual ideal goes under the rubric of “choice”: from marketplace choice to lifestyle choice; from choice about manners, appearance, or association to the choice of expression and entertainment. The social ideal goes under the rubric of “community” and points to where all of the various choices must be curtailed if we wish to preserve strong families, secure borders, rising living standards, a healthy environment, and all the other building blocks of a sustainable civilization.

In today's Unraveling, with its mood of pessimism, a reconciliation between these opposing principles seems (and probably is) impossible. But come the Fourth Turning, in the white heat of society's ekpyrosis and rebirth, a grand solution may suddenly snap into place. Once a new social contract is written and a new civic order established, it could eradicate (or, at least, narrow) many of the today's seemingly insoluble contradictions—for example, between no-fault divorce and dependable families, poverty assistance and the work ethic, or gun control and personal defense.

This is a pretty good prediction of the crisis. The essence is a progressive attempt to let each group chose their own path against a conservative attempt to force an obsolete culture. It may be that the time will be remembered by “Mind your own damn business”. Freedom and choice imply people can walk their own path and ignore the formerly dominant prejudice and doctrine. The prime ideas behind the old crises are simple: independence, freedom, containment... Choice might be the most recent.

The above looks pre Nashville. No emphasis on flaws in the culture inevitably overcome by progressive ideas. There is an implication that “choices must be curtailed” which emphasized maintaining the existing culture, something that doesn’t happen in a crisis. You get progressive fixes and new values.

Still S&H did wonderful work proclaiming how turnings work. If you want to understand the rhythm of history, it is a good place to start. You just shouldn’t ignore the concept of progress, about how the culture moves on.

I've given my opinion as to how to resolve the conflict between choice and community like 6 times over a period of 15 years. The technology to resolve this has existed for 15-20 years, all through the typical time frame to solve the crisis with a positive outcome. The latest iteration of my proposal for a resolution is in the early part of the dark age hovel, excerpts from which are below. Since this conflict has not been resolved during the typical time when it should have/could have been, it's my conclusion that on we roll into the new dark age (without our Gray Champion who this time did not come forth with a resolution).

I addressed something like that in 2011 but since I addressed it my belief is that things have deteriorated quite a lot because the leadership has essentially blocked any avenues for forward progress, as reading the relevant sections of this post and comparing to more recent posts would indicate:

Perhaps collapse can be better thought of as reconfiguration of political and social systems for the purpose of conforming to present and future conditions. I've heard it said that if the Dark Ages hadn't occurred, humans would be traveling the galaxy by now. I disagree. If the Dark Ages hadn't occurred, the existing political and social systems would have been unable to accommodate the new technologies, the system would have failed in a manner far worse than the Dark Ages collapse, and the surviving humans may have been set back to hunting and gathering. Important work went on during those 5 or 10 centuries.

It seems likely to me that the new technologies that are presenting themselves are perhaps one order of magnitude less differentiated from the agrarian Roman model versus the industrial nation-state model. The nation-state can probably survive in some form with adaptations and it may take 50 to 100 years to fully reconfigure it. I think some of the adaptations will need to be in the area I discussed where within the nation-state there will appear differing venues that are tailored to the particular needs of local population groups. A lot of movement will take place as each individual finds their appropriate place. Nobody in the US can currently agree on anything and the current political model doesn't serve hardly any ordinary citizen's needs. Rather than fighting another Civil War, the new technologies give the option of organizing "market-states" within the nation-state model. People can make choices among various models with regard to taxes, monetary policy, social policy or what have you and move into locations to be among those who agree with them. In addition to functioning as a political model, the "market-states" would double as an ideal economic model. There would remain many areas the nation-state model would have jurisdiction over.

But I think reading this post and then taking into account what has happened in the past 11 years would provide the answer to your question.

[Bob Butler]

I've given my opinion as to how to resolve the conflict between choice and community like 6 times over a period of 15 years. The technology to resolve this has existed for 15-20 years, all through the typical time frame to solve the crisis with a positive outcome. The latest iteration of my proposal for a resolution is in the early part of the dark age hovel, excerpts from which are below. Since this conflict has not been resolved during the typical time when it should have/could have been, it's my conclusion that on we roll into the new dark age (without our Gray Champion who this time did not come forth with a resolution).

I too have repeated my opinion that the crisis conflicts have been resolved and that we are entering a high. I have listed the domestic issues involved... race riots, Covid, police murders, the insurrection. These are over. Which do you see as unresolved and escalating? Granted we still have spree shooters. Abortion choice has not been restored yet, nor voting rights established. I'm not seeing those as bringing on a dark age.

I agree that it would be hard to put Biden and/or Pelosi up there with Washington, Lincoln and FDR. If we haven't had a clear grey champion this time around, we have had a clear black one in Trump, fighting for the old values and established culture. He seems at least comparable to George III, Jefferson Davis and Hoover. Still, legendary reputations only deploy somewhat after the crisis is past and over simplified. All the massive changes are reduced in the history books and attributed to one person. It is a bit soon for that.

I'm thinking that you feel freedom of choice, letting each chose his own path, people minding their own business, is such a great disaster as to cause a dark age. Well, you are absurdly into dark ages, imaging such hiding underneath every pillow. I'l go with the high. Right on time.

[Higgenbotham]

I've given my opinion as to how to resolve the conflict between choice and community like 6 times over a period of 15 years. The technology to resolve this has existed for 15-20 years, all through the typical time frame to solve the crisis with a positive outcome. The latest iteration of my proposal for a resolution is in the early part of the dark age hovel, excerpts from which are below. Since this conflict has not been resolved during the typical time when it should have/could have been, it's my conclusion that on we roll into the new dark age (without our Gray Champion who this time did not come forth with a resolution).

I too have repeated my opinion that the crisis conflicts have been resolved and that we are entering a high. I have listed the domestic issues involved... race riots, Covid, police murders, the insurrection. These are over. Which do you see as unresolved and escalating? Granted we still have spree shooters. Abortion choice has not been restored yet, nor voting rights established. I'm not seeing those as bringing on a dark age.

I agree that it would be hard to put Biden and/or Pelosi up there with Washington, Lincoln and FDR. If we haven't had a clear grey champion this time around, we have had a clear black one in Trump, fighting for the old values and established culture. He seems at least comparable to George III, Jefferson Davis and Hoover. Still, legendary reputations only deploy somewhat after the crisis is past and over simplified. All the massive changes are reduced in the history books and attributed to one person. It is a bit soon for that.

I'm thinking that you feel freedom of choice, letting each chose his own path, people minding their own business, is such a great disaster as to cause a dark age. Well, you are absurdly into dark ages, imaging such hiding underneath every pillow. I'l go with the high. Right on time.

You're doing the same thing Cool Breeze did - trying to repeat conversations (see underlined) that have already taken place 1-2 and sometimes even more years ago and for which the facts have not changed. I mean, I can cut and paste, but what's the point? Then you mostly lapse back into the same old 4 or 5 issues you have, the main one being your hatred of Trump, which are all meaningless in the big picture.

[Bob Butler]

You're doing the same thing Cool Breeze did - trying to repeat conversations (see underlined) that have already taken place 1-2 and sometimes even more years ago and for which the facts have not changed. I mean, I can cut and paste, but what's the point? Then you mostly lapse back into the same old 4 or 5 issues you have, the main one being your hatred of Trump, which are all meaningless in the big picture.

A lot of the crisis issues peaked around Trump’s time in office. Cops murdering. Covid. Race riots. The insurrection. They have all faded. So, yes, they took place years ago, though they have all changed. You haven’t noticed? Even the dislike of Trump is also changing, with even Republicans rejecting him now. All his effort recently went into pointing out that old guys are not appropriate presidential candidates. That’s one point I might agree with him on. The boomer generation is aging out of power. With a generation aging out, the turnings turn.

I note you were unable to point out an escalating unresolved crisis issue. Proves my point. It could be different on the foreign war front. We are not in control there. But on the domestic side things are done.

[Higgenbotham]

You're doing the same thing Cool Breeze did - trying to repeat conversations (see underlined) that have already taken place 1-2 and sometimes even more years ago and for which the facts have not changed. I mean, I can cut and paste, but what's the point? Then you mostly lapse back into the same old 4 or 5 issues you have, the main one being your hatred of Trump, which are all meaningless in the big picture.

A lot of the crisis issues peaked around Trump’s time in office. Cops murdering. Covid. Race riots. The insurrection. They have all faded. So, yes, they took place years ago, though they have all changed. You haven’t noticed? Even the dislike of Trump is also changing, with even Republicans rejecting him now. All his effort recently went into pointing out that old guys are not appropriate presidential candidates. That’s one point I might agree with him on. The boomer generation is aging out of power. With a generation aging out, the turnings turn.

I note you were unable to point out an escalating unresolved crisis issue. Proves my point. It could be different on the foreign war front. We are not in control there. But on the domestic side things are done.

I pointed out several escalating unresolved crisis issues a year or two ago in response to you. They have since escalated further and remain unresolved. Do you recall what any of them are? I'll give you a hint to the context of the conversation if you need one.

When you say, "Proves my point," that's exactly what Cool Breeze used to say. That does prove my point.

Could BTC/network do anything to eventually admit that you were wrong about it? It's always a valid question, that I've answered on the other side.

You asked me the same question 2 years ago and I answered it.

I don't recall that. I think you said nothing, like here, which is an answer, indeed. It proves my point = you don't have a rational stance on it.

At least Cool Breeze admitted that he didn't recall.

[Bob Butler]

I pointed out several escalating unresolved crisis issues a year or two ago in response to you. They have since escalated further and remain unresolved. Do you recall what any of them are? I'll give you a hint to the context of the conversation if you need one.

When you say, "Proves my point," that's exactly what Cool Breeze used to say. That does prove my point.

No. You have to say what crisis issue is still escalating to the point of causing a dark age. Covid? Vaccines available. Race riots? Lone gone. Cops murdering? I haven't seen it lately. The insurrection? A steady stream of convictions, though obviously partisan decisions have slowed Trump's cases. It is obvious where it is going.

If you can't or won't state your position, I assume it to be garbage?

[Higgenbotham]

I pointed out several escalating unresolved crisis issues a year or two ago in response to you. They have since escalated further and remain unresolved. Do you recall what any of them are? I'll give you a hint to the context of the conversation if you need one.

When you say, "Proves my point," that's exactly what Cool Breeze used to say. That does prove my point.

No. You have to say what crisis issue is still escalating to the point of causing a dark age. Covid? Vaccines available. Race riots? Lone gone. Cops murdering? I haven't seen it lately. The insurrection? A steady stream of convictions, though obviously partisan decisions have slowed Trump's cases. It is obvious where it is going.

If you can't or won't state your position, I assume it to be garbage?

I already know what your crisis non-issues are. It's obvious you don't know what the real crisis issues are because you're making no effort to find out what they are. I'm not the only one who has told you what the real crisis issues are. Navigator, among others, has also. Can you name even one crisis issue that Navigator pointed out to you?

[Bob Butler]

I already know what your crisis non-issues are. It's obvious you don't know what the real crisis issues are because you're making no effort to find out what they are. I'm not the only one who has told you what the real crisis issues are. Navigator, among others, has also. Can you name even one crisis issue that Navigator pointed out to you?

Nope. And since you are avoiding mentioning them, I assume you are ashamed to. Are you into the Putin / Xi / Gaza foreign conflicts? I've addressed those recently..