Generational Dynamics World View News

[guest]

Sadly, I think a civil war is indeed a possibility, though it's not yet set in stone.

I don't disagree that things could go very sideways, but if there's civil war, what would the two sides be?

[guest]

Great question.
Does anyone know if the federal government has enough resources to replace red state governments and force people to follow federal mandates?
It seems unlikely to me, but I'd love to hear from someone who has more insight than me.

[Navigator]

A "civil war" generally means having two sides, each with armies and the ability to supply those armies with weapons, ammunition, and soldiers. The North vs South in the 1860s is the classic example.

Where we are at now is a danger of an insurrection rather than a civil war. Lets say Trump gets elected (which now seems highly likely). Lets even say that he is sworn in. But the left doesn't like it, so they start rioting and shooting at law enforcement. Maybe even worse, they start blowing up infrastructure. While not a classical civil war, this would be pretty bad.

The Federal government does have the ability to step in and Federalize the states' National Guard forces, and to deploy oodles of Federal Law enforcement. They can, I believe, even Federalize local law enforcement.

US Law Forbids the use of the National Forces (Army, Navy, Marines; and all their Reserve Forces) from law enforcement. This was a post US Civil War law pushed by the South. It is called the "Posse Comitatus Act", and everyone in the Armed Forces is familiar with it.

Posse Comitatus and Martial Law (whereby the military does take over) are allowed in the US if the civil courts cannot function (which is a very grey area), and Congress votes to support such measures (which, in the scenario I have initially described, would require Republican majorities).

If this were to happen, going after public officials who were not enforcing the law, or who were even inciting insurrection, would be part of the game plan.

All of the above are a distinct possibility in the near future, and would certainly play into the wider scenario of war with China and expanded war in Europe and the Middle East, all of which I believe are very likely.

[guest]

Gotcha, yes I could see some of these things happening. And if Harris happens to "win" but things look suspicious (as in 10's of millions of unlikely, excess votes) with no review or recourse, I would expect some large scale protests/shutdowns, for example halting food shipments to cities. Interesting times we live in for sure.

[Navigator]

Trump had gotten almost to 65% odds of winning in the betting markets, but has lost ground recently. I would have to guess it is due to his latest spate of outrageous comments. He might want to have Liz Cheney face a firing squad, or to have her sent into combat, but did he really have to say it? And of course, there is no chance of either thing happening. There are too many checks on a President's power. You just can't have people taken out and shot. Both sides know this, but why does Trump have to play into their hands with this kind of stuff?

The bottom line for me is that of the 4 people running for national office, only Vance has the ability to lead the entire country through a major crisis. I think that is what he will eventually have to do.

As for Harris winning, yeah, it could happen somehow. More likely is that Biden/Harris accuse Trump of some kind of illegal trickery and refuse to hand over power to him. But they can't really do that, as Trump found out. Both Congress and the Supreme Court combined can easily take on the Executive Branch. All thanks to the power and foresight of the Constitution.

In any case, there is going to be pandemonium after the election and into next year with riotous dissent of whatever the electoral outcome is.

[Trevor]

Trump's actual words are outrageous, but the way our media spins things is why they have no credibility with the public. It says a lot that the Media's become less popular than Congress; quite an achievement.

A terrifying prospect for the election would be: Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, with Harris taking Wisconsin and Michigan. It all comes down for a few thousand votes in Pennsylvania, which would give Harris a 270-268 victory in the Electoral. Even worse is the possibility that electors could decide not to follow their state's vote and defect, only leading to more problems.

If things got to that point, how things play out depends on who the military sides with. Its soldiers might lean right, but not overwhelmingly so. If the Armed Forces all side with Trump, we see the French Revolution play out, with the left being crushed. What I do know is that the military follows the law, and if the right looks ready to start an uprising, they'll crush it. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a clear victory, regardless of who it is.

[spottybrowncow]

Thanks for your always interesting analysis, Trevor. But when the military secretly assures our enemies that they won't follow the commander-in-chief's orders if they disagree with him, a big gray zone opens up.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/15/10374547 ... bout-trump

[FullMoon]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a clear victory, regardless of who it is.

This appears to be the only way to avert the expected chaos and post election uncertainty. And I haven't seen many people considering it as the most likely outcome.
Apparently the powerful elements that have been plaguing Trump aren't going to stop and will potentially try some desperate measures to prevent him from assuming office. There's tons of back office politics and vested interests that could have their cushy conditions upended by reforms. I've seen mention that we might see something crazy before the election in hopes that it derails the process.

It appears that we're entering the final stretch of this downward trajectory into the Fourth Turning and the calm before the storm, which has caused complacency, will be shattered by shocking and life changing events. I hope everyone has gotten prepared, especially mentally and spiritually, for the travails ahead. Thanks to everyone for posting and especially John and Navigator for sticking in and helping us understand and prepare for this outcome.

[thinker]

There is already evidence of fraud, for example machines not letting voters vote for Trump and counting the votes for harris as well as switching Trump votes to harris and other fraudulent things. There are also democrats coming out now admitting that the machines have problems such as the SOS of Michigan, mind you these same democrats have been saying for years that the 2020 election was the most secure in our history yet now those same machines have obvious problems. They know they stole the 2020 election and have been working to steal this one, but they have some problems this time around. Trump is doing much better than he did last time and they don't have the Covid BS to use as cover plus the GOP didn't do much to get rid of election fraud but they did somethings here and there and the combination of these things have made it harder for them to steal this election. The fact that they are admitting that the machines have problems makes me think that they are setting the ground work so that if they can't steal it this time they can claim that Trump is the one that stole the election and try to stop him through a color revolution.

[thinker]

I have a theory as to why people like Navigator and others , especially boomers don't believe that the 2020 election was stolen by the democrats. The first thing is the media they consume tells them that there was no fraud or at least not enough to make a difference and along with that they think that for example fox news is conservative when in reality they are nothing more than controlled opposition for the democrats. Also they live a different life than others so they don't have any real connections with for example blue collar people or immigrants like myself. One of the things that told me that biden wasn't going to win for example was the reaction of latinos towards him. I saw videos of latinos laughing and calling him a pendejo which is an insult to latins. I knew only about 7 latins that were going to vote for him, everyone else had no respect for him. The same way that I knew that I also know that latins are not going to vote for a women in large enought numbers to help harris and before anyone says that's sexist don't bother latinos are sexist and we are proud of it, it proves we are not retarded. By the way latin women also tend to be sexist and usually wont vote for a women in large enough numbers to help harris. These are some of the blind spots these people have. I also believe that even if they know these things they don't want to admit that the 2020 election was stolen because then they would have to admit that the America they love no longer exists. Given all this it's much easier to say hey Bill Bar was on fox news and said that there was no fraud so you see it's just a crazy conspiracy theory. I still believe that these people have value to give this forum and society, but they do have their blind spots.