Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

In 2008, the globally interconnected financial system disintegrated almost overnight as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suddenly revealed a hidden web of dependencies. As a result, the global financial system came within hours of shutting down.

What does that mean? Companies can't make payroll, businesses don't get paid, people can't access their money, food isn't delivered to the grocery store, and so on. Treasury officials begged Congress for massive amounts of money to backstop the financial system, arguing the US was days from martial law if the funds weren't provided.

Long story short, massive amounts of money papered over the losses foregoing financial collapse.

We won't be so lucky when an economic crash is triggered by a multi-breadbasket failure. People will quickly discover they can't eat dollar bills.

Like in the years preceding the global financial crisis, policy makers are being informed by economic experts that climate change will only reduce GDP by single-digits. Some even forecast a POSITIVE impact to GDP.

There is a fundamental knowledge gap. Scientists are screaming that the end is nigh, but when economists equate this to a 2-5% hit to future GDP the news appears sanguine. In fact, it makes the scientists appear fanatical.

Money guides politics. If the money is still flowing and governments are still able to collect taxes (and bribes), why enact dramatic, costly or upsetting policy change? This partly explains why governments and businesses have paid lip-service to climate risks.

Fortunately, there is a group of alternative economic researchers examining the failures of existing models and incorporating a broader range of outcomes that consider feedback loops, tipping points and a future that looks nothing like the past.

Recently, actuaries Sandy Trust, Sanjay Joshi, Professor Tim Lenton, and Jack Oliver shared their work in a study called "The Emperor's New Climate Scenarios".

This report highlights that a more realistic economic projection for the Business as Usual scenario is a 50-73% crash in GDP and asset prices.

Is this collapse? While 50-73% doesn't sound like total collapse, it effectively is. A decline of that scale is unprecedented and forces massive simplification. Furthermore, it's a number that must be associated with mass death through war or famine. Finally, this number is simply a milestone on a pathway to an even smaller or non-existent economy.

https://www.collapse2050.com/report-sum ... scenarios/

[Higgenbotham]

The global energy landscape is facing a crucial turning point. Various studies show that oil liquid production is expected to peak in 2035 at a magnitude of 500 petajoule per day (PJ/d), but when the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d (Delannoy et al. 2021). For context, the US consumed 100,000 petajoules of energy in 2021.

Energy necessary for the production of oil liquids is growing at an exponential rate, representing 15.5% of the energy production of oil liquids today and projected to reach a proportion equivalent to half of the gross energy output by 2050 (Delannoy et al. 2021).

https://jpt.spe.org/plummeting-energy-r ... -landscape

Let's remember some version of this has been said before. But someday it will happen, most likely.

This is my opinion on what will trigger the financial collapse. Like "she" said, though, "Within this group, we have differing opinions on how, what and when but we all agree that humanity is driving full-speed towards a cliff."

That doesn't mean the news will report that the net energy peak was the cause of Wall Street traders panicking. It might be something like industrial production falling 2 or 3 months in a row or China being unable to stop a deflationary spiral. Also, I'm not posting this because the S&P 500 fell to a 2 month low yesterday. For all I know, it could make a new record high this year.

In any case, I find "her" posts to be informative.

[Higgenbotham]

Fri Apr 26, 2024 5:15 pm Your conveyance and the cycle in context to your observation does underline you view as they contend with the reply.

" I’ve taken into account the capacities modern industrial society has to deal with crisis.
My answer to both is the same: yes, I’ve taken both these into account, and they cancel each other out.

I would and do agree with your current position since value added cannot cope with zero sum effect that understands what decline is.

The delay we see is the fact they embrace nothing to do with value added effects. At least for now we can see what they want to ignore again.

aeden, I don't necessarily agree with everything I quote.

This is a list of the types of specialists who might think about collapse.

1. Archaeologists - Done enough digging to realize that much of what they are digging up resulted from the collapse of civilizations
2. Historians - Looked at enough history to conclude that there are patterns of rise and fall that civilizations follow
3. Systems Thinkers - Look at the world as a complex system that is inherently unstable and will break down as limits are hit
4. Theologians - Study religious prophecy and compare to current events to conclude that end times prophecy is being fulfilled
5. Ecologists - Look at population dynamics of other species and conclude that humans are on an unsustainable population trajectory
6. Environmentalists - Look at enough environmental measures (resources, health, climate, etc.) to think collapse is on the near term horizon
7. Whistleblowers - Believe that things are morally and ethically much worse than people realize based on perception of their personal experience
8. Traders - Have studied market collapses and believe these types of collapses are applicable harbingers and models of civilizational collapse
9. Dabblers - Often former professionals and retirees who are widely read and concerned about the future based on personal experience and study

It would take several lifetimes to cover all this ground even if one individual were constitutionally capable of doing it all.

Greer is speaking from the perspective of the historians. Probably collapse will more closely follow the path that the systems thinkers, ecologists, and environmentalists are projecting.

So while I read that "the way to picture how a collapse will take place is to read about how that process has historically occurred" I doubt very much that will be the case. That would be especially true given how the Central Bankers are running the hamster on the wheel at maximum speed.

Collapse Functions.jpg
Excess.jpg

Graphs are here:
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=24366#p24366

Turning to the duration of the darkness that
will follow collapse, past dark ages can serve as a
guide. Typically, the period of utter obscurity and
turmoil lasts between fifty and two hundred years,
which may therefore be posited as the likely
duration of the coming dark age. A duration nearer
the upper limit of this range is probably more
likely, since the most severe dark ages tend to
follow from the first time that humans achieve a
particular level of social complexity. The present
era is the first time that humanity has achieved so
thoroughly connected a global civilisation, and
some extreme contradictions have been
accumulated. It seems that it will take not one but
several human lifetimes to erase from memory the
hatreds and conceits that ultimately pitch the
present world order into the abyss.

The Phoenix Principle and the Coming Dark Age by Marc Widdowson, 2001
pp. 278-9

My guess as to what the Central Bankers have accomplished is to move the path of the black line to be more like the path of the red line.

[aeden]

"When my people lived here, we took good care of all this land.
We burned it over every fall to make it like a park. Now it is a jungle."

H we understand the modern as I was would not or press you into a mold given the journey.
We just projected another steer to the freezer.
I hope your next planting goes well.

My answer to both is the same: yes, I’ve taken both these into account, and they cancel each other out.
That statement was from another member not you H.

I seen the irony of it.

I was offered a ZEC and the Wife said it was ok on Her terms.
WIP limits are fixed constraints teams place on themselves in order to improve throughput and minimize context switching.
Pair programming into AGILE system.

ZEC's are owned and run by ex-employees now contract. Labor projects are bid out by-the-hour in a development methodology called Agile.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... ry_jep.pdf
This is an identity, not a theory, and holds in all models. Not in my view but there it is.
Let it burn for them as we shifted our model in 2019.

[aeden]

https://www.waterstories.com/core-course

[aeden]

Spreads will collapse and will retail.
Last lie was credit default swaps would save the leveraged fools.

Inflate it all of uniparty fools. Yes they let it burn and are.

Make the taxpayer fools pay for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tr4RnCAKgjk

[aeden]

Money for tanks planes bullets and death and yes you komrade will pay for the fair insurance collapse well past underway.
https://www.gunsandbutter.org/blog/2021 ... green-mask
Constant gaslighting.

[aeden]

https://www.slashgear.com/lead-in-ice-s ... -14530718/

The core systems. Another Lithium fire and bad water culture.

[Higgenbotham]

This Aggressive Baby Name Trend Is 'Alarming' Experts

“There is a small but noticeable trend of parents using weapons-inspired ― and, more broadly, aggressive ― names for their sons,” Sophie Kihm, the editor-in-chief at the website Nameberry, told HuffPost. “Many of these names first appeared on the baby name charts in the 2000s, including Wesson, Caliber, Shooter and Trigger.”

Weapon-inspired monikers that parents have chosen in recent years also include Blade and Cannon, as well as brand-related names like Remington, Colt, Ruger and Winchester. Arson, Cutter and Dagger are among the other names with a violent edge in recent data from the Social Security Administration.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/weapon-b ... wtab-en-us

[Higgenbotham]

I hope your next planting goes well.

Tomatoes were doable here so that will be modified and scaled up 10-20 times for next year. The tomatoes have been started to plant outside late February or early March. This year I will do cherry tomato varieties more acclimated to the Texas heat that should produce through the peak heat to first freeze. After that, I will concentrate on easier to grow native Texas crops like okra, sweet potatoes and blackberries. Sweet potatoes and blackberries (dewberries actually) grew wild behind my old dark age hovel.

This is what was left on the tomato plant before our first freeze about 10 days ago. They were all green at the time. It was planted late July and that one plant probably yielded 100 tomatoes.