Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Navigator]

This would be all well and good in "Utopia World". Unfortunately, if this is how the world were set up, a band of thugs (raider army) would show up and plunder the small and relatively defenseless micro population. This is why kingdoms and later nations formed out of the Anarchy of the post Roman world.

[Higgenbotham]

From what I've read on this topic, which is not a lot, the ideal population of a mini-country (his words which I have not seen before, not that of others) from the standpoint of economic efficiency (taking into account the new technologies and resource constraints) was thought to be 10,000 to 30,000. Others that have proposed something similar have said these so-called mini-countries (which they did not call them that) would be like guilds under the umbrella of a more decentralized United States.

I copied this mainly to show when the excerpt quoted in the video was written. In 2008, when it was written, there was still a lot of excitement about the possibilities of the Internet while, at the same time, the financial crisis had just hit. So I think at that time, the idea was that this was how we could reconfigure the US and maybe even the world to best get out of the financial crisis, as an alternative to just kicking the can down the road and having an even bigger financial crisis later. I believe the thought was there might be a long depression as a result but not a new dark age.

Taking into account what has happened since 2008, and I have not followed what any of the players mentioned in the video have been saying over time, their current actions would indicate that they no longer believe what was proposed in 2008 would be workable without a lot of modifications. It would need to be more draconian and less based on libertarian ideals than originally thought.

Then going back to what the escort to the rich said in a post before that, the thought when posting that was certain factions of the billionaire elite are doing things which indicate that what she said may really be true.

[Navigator]

I have no doubt that things will end very badly for the world as we know it. And I think it will happen a lot faster than it will take the supposed "global warming" (oops, now "climate change" since the warming bit wasn't working out) to play out.

The main need for people when the collapse happens is SECURITY. This is because those unable to produce anything will be looking to take it from others. This is why the dark/middle ages looked the way they did. Castles provided security for smaller societies.

If some small group is able to provide for itself, as in the mini-country idea you describe, others will be looking to plunder it (rather than starve, which is what the non-producers will be facing)

[Higgenbotham]

Everybody who has lived within this system has to varying degrees a mindset oriented toward producing collapse. That mindset is required in order to survive in the current environment while, at the same time, it moves the group toward the cliff. Some of the components of that mindset have been discussed here; overreach as an example. The big winners and influencers will have a mindset that is geared toward extreme overreach and within this system that mindset is on net rewarded and is therefore almost universally considered to be a positive attribute. A mindset geared toward overconsumption, lack of accountability, entitlement, etc., etc., would be other examples. The collapse comes about due to this orientation. Also discussed here were the children who were raised by packs of wolves, etc. Within differing extreme environments, humans are shown to be surprisingly malleable. Out of a collapsed environment will come the people who have the needed attributes to build a new civilization. It will not come from the current environment and the mindset it has produced. If a large group of people who are extreme products of the current environment decide to band together for the purpose of using that group to create a bridge across the coming dark age, it will certainly fail. The larger the group beyond what's needed, the more maladapted it will be, as the larger group will tend toward having the mindset that ensures success in the current environment but is not fit for success in whatever unpredictable future stage of collapse they find themselves in. These groups can be useful though because they can act as precursors for future breakaway groups. These are some very general theoretical thoughts about high tech communities, ecovillages, survival compounds, etc., as the system moves through collapse to the bottom of the dark age several centuries hence. Though I expect the bulk of the collapse to come over the next several decades.

[Higgenbotham]

Comment from my sister. Who is a small business person and at least was a Trump supporter.

"This tariff stuff is a circus. Either he has no idea how many small businesses HAD to either close OR use the global supply chain or he's really out to destroy small business. No different from CPSIA. In that case all products needed a certificate of testing to prove they are safe but no one was available to do the testing - so end of small businesses who don't have access to getting fake certifications pumped out for them. Tariffs now require a customer broker, or pay UPS $300 for clearance plus duty plus shipping on a $1000 shipment. I don't mind that - it's no different from our South American knit business. In fact, with planning, we could become a very large supplier in our field if all the small packages were double in cost. My competition would be eliminated pretty much. But, you don't do it instantly. So, we will see how it goes..."

[Higgenbotham]

This year, I decided to free myself from the dependency of buying tomato starts at the local nursery. That was my only dependency last year. So the first thing you find out that you "need" is seed starter mix. Another dependency. After that, the recommended course of action is to fertilize after 2 weeks because the seed starter mix has no nutrients in it. One more dependency. Oh, and you will also "need" grow lights for yet a third dependency. Going back in my lineage, the only person who could have advised me on how to avoid these dependencies would be my grandmother, who was born in 1902 in rural Nebraska. According to my father, she had bred a tomato (heirloom in today's lingo) that grew well in her area. She saved seed and started her plants, surely without seed starter mix or fertilizer or grow lights. So I'll have to figure it out for myself. But for this year I followed the advice that comes from the existing mindset. Probably enough can be learned from that process to get on the right track in future years.

I suppose if the tech bros want to build their own planned community on federal land and they want to be self-sufficient in tomatoes, they can consider stockpiling 100 years worth of seed starter mix, along with fertilizer and grow lights. Barring that, maybe they can consider flying their tomatoes in on drones over the walls of their secured city. It gets complicated.

[Higgenbotham]

This will be my next project in this Dark Age Hovel: to go through all 214 pages of this hovel and summarize the factual information regarding the outputs that the managerial elite class overseeing the United States has actually generated.

7. "Acemoglu et al. systematically examined companies that had corporate ties to Geithner, had executives who served with him on other boards, or had other direct relationships. They found that "the quantitative effect is comparable to standard findings" in Third World countries with weak institutions and higher levels of corruption. In other words, markets react to government actions in the U.S. the same way they do in a corrupt developing country. Crony capitalism pays, and the market knows it."

This is a link to an article from this same author published in the Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/4e3f1731-3d6 ... ca51649b29

A few excerpts:

The real threat to American prosperity

Nobel-winning economist Daron Acemoglu on trade wars, tech industry hubris — and how loss of faith in US institutions could spiral

Even amid a tumultuous present, it is difficult to imagine a radically different future. But the fortunes of nations do change, often dramatically. Politics has consequences. For this reason, it pays to think creatively about what these consequences might be — and about how we might look to those living with them.

As an economist used to studying growth and stagnation over the long term, I can picture myself assessing American history in 2050 (assuming I am still alive and not senile by then). This story, of course, is yet to be told. But it could go something like this.

The decline, when it came, was sudden and unexpected. The 20th century had been the American century and the US looked even more unstoppable in the first decades of the 21st. As it took the lead in artificial intelligence, its economy appeared robust and destined to outperform western European rivals that were still suffering the effects of the 2007-09 financial crisis and the Covid pandemic of 2020-22. China was a more formidable rival, but many commentators had begun dismissing the possibility that it would overtake the US. It came as a surprise to most when, in the early 2030s, the US economy stopped growing and fell behind even compared to Europe.

None of these explanations were sufficient to account for the sudden, unexpected decline, however. The most significant was the crumbling of American institutions. This happened both because of structural problems that long predated Biden and Trump, and also, importantly, because the actions of both presidents crushed belief in these institutions.

The cracks were visible long before Trump was first elected in November 2016. He was in many ways a symptom of those troubled times. Voters can be gullible. But their willingness to support outsiders, often with very little preparation or qualification for national office, correlates with deep discontent with the existing state of affairs and a belief that the system needs to be shaken up. One fundamental problem was that political operatives and business elites opposed to Trump never understood him in this way.

Symbols matter, especially when it comes to institutions. Once it becomes accepted that institutions are not functioning and cannot be trusted, their slide intensifies and people are further discouraged from defending them. We could see this dynamic already in the late 2000s, interwoven with polarisation. Trust in institutions took a severe beating after the financial crisis of 2007-09, precisely because the conceit of a well-regulated, expertly run economy came crashing down. Understandably, many Americans reacted negatively when the government rushed to rescue banks and bankers while doing little to help homeowners in bankruptcy or workers who had lost their jobs. The inequalities that had formed became much more visible, partly because the lavish lifestyles of the bankers rescued by the government became a symbol for the gulf that had opened between regular working people and the very rich.

Similarly, the critical state of US institutions became much clearer after Biden’s cynical pardons, sending a signal to millions that his administration’s defence of democracy was a charade.

The damage to democracy thus began even before Trump ascended to power the second time.

America’s collapse thus followed Hemingway’s famous line on bankruptcy. It happened gradually, as shared prosperity, high-quality public services and the operation of democratic institutions weakened, and then suddenly, as Americans stopped believing in those institutions.

Looking back from 2050, however, one thing is clear. This was all avoidable. There were many points at which institutions could have been bolstered, compromises reached and extremists kept at bay. American politicians and activists failed. Perhaps Americans got the politicians and the activists they deserved. At the very least, they did nothing to prove that they deserved better.

Daron Acemoglu is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a winner of the Nobel Prize in economics

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpflT8XuSyg

Member of our society the democrat are attacking who are fiscally sanr draining the swamp rot.

So far 1 percent of 100 billion has found mind numbing rot from the beltway thieves.

As open source from the frankfurt taproot shown fork criminal funds was diverted to the light.

We warned you they will eat there own and are.

The evil lingers in deception. To date over $1 billion/day is being salvaged from rot.

The next clean up should be the diseased mind that afflicted the latin zone.

[Higgenbotham]

These are some very general theoretical thoughts about high tech communities, ecovillages, survival compounds, etc., as the system moves through collapse to the bottom of the dark age several centuries hence. Though I expect the bulk of the collapse to come over the next several decades.

Out of all the mishmash of planned communities that are thought by some to be helpful to survive collapse, the only thing I've suggested is that it could be advantageous to live near the Hutterite communities. We also highlighted a video where a man living independently off the land in Kentucky with no government ID had a lot of Amish neighbors.

For someone looking for a non nuclear war option, has good resistance to cold, and rural living skills, living near a Hutterite community may be a good option. There are Hutterite communities scattered through North Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, as I best recall.

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/hutte ... h-america/

[vincecate]

Asked Grok "Currently, Feb 9, 2025, there seem to be many financial indicators that are the most extreme since the global financial crisis or the dot com bust, or the great depression. Some people think we are about to get a "fourth turning". Can you make a list of such things?"

Grok:
Here are some financial indicators and economic conditions that have been described as extreme, based on recent analyses and financial commentary:

Debt to GDP Ratio:
There's concern about the increasing debt relative to GDP, with some analyses suggesting that current levels are reminiscent of historical financial crises. Posts on X mention this as indicative of an "end of empires" scenario, aligning with theories like the "Fourth Turning".

Yield Curve Inversion:
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days, an event seen only a few times historically (2008, 1929, 1974), all of which preceded major economic downturns. This inversion is often seen as a predictor of recession.

Stock Market Valuations:
Some reports and posts on X indicate that US stocks and real estate prices are at levels seen before major market sell-offs like Black Monday or the Great Depression, suggesting a potential bubble that might burst.

Global Debt Levels:
According to financial sources, global debt hit a record $307 trillion in 2023, which could lead to unsustainable borrowing and inflation, reminiscent of pre-crisis periods.

Economic Indicators and Predictions:
Economists like Harry Dent warn of an "everything bubble" potentially leading to the largest crash in history, more severe than the 2008 crisis. This perspective sees the current economic environment as artificially inflated by monetary policies.

Unemployment and Labor Market Stress:
Rising unemployment insurance claims and a cracking labor market have been cited as signs of an impending economic slowdown, echoing the conditions before previous recessions.

Commercial Real Estate and Banking Vulnerabilities:
There are concerns about the commercial real estate sector, with high vacancy rates and increasing delinquencies, which could impact banking stability, drawing parallels to historical financial crises like the savings and loan crisis.

Inflation and Interest Rates:
With inflation rates expected to rise and the possibility of high interest rates for an extended period, there's worry about a slowdown in consumer spending and economic activity, similar to the stagflation period.

Geopolitical and Trade Risks:
Potential trade wars under a new U.S. administration and ongoing global conflicts could lead to disruptions similar to those seen during economic downturns.

Recession Probability:
J.P. Morgan Research has assessed the probability of a recession by the end of 2025 at 45%, and various models suggest that recession odds are significantly elevated, which is a critical indicator when compared to historical economic cycles.


These points collectively paint a picture of an economy with several extreme indicators, potentially signaling a significant economic shift or downturn, often referred to in the context of the "Fourth Turning" - a theory suggesting periods of major societal change occur in cycles about every 80 to 100 years. However, economic predictions are inherently uncertain, and while these indicators are alarming, they do not guarantee a specific outcome. Always approach such data with a critical eye, considering the complexity and unpredictability of economic systems.