Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

spottybrowncow wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2025 1:16 pm
Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:33 am Navi, if America is so great, the government and Constitution are so enlightened, how is it that we've had decades of swamp building that only now is trying to be dismantled? You've never really squared that circle. It's pretty clear that other people, entities, whatever control the US government - what you call that and how is the only question.
CB, the way I see it, it's the "Catch 22" of open societies; how do you stop your enemies from using the permissiveness of your free country to work against you? The answer is, you probably can't. The closest you can come, in my opinion, is by doing what Trump and Musk are doing - maximizing transparency of government dealings.

By having three co-equal branches of government, the Constitution provides for two short term "escape valves" with elections (executive and legislative), and one longer term escape valve with appointments (judicial). When enough people finally realize that things are going the wrong way, for a long enough time, then all three valves are open to maximize course correction, which is where we are now. Brilliant as this system is, it has at least one great weakness - an absolute dependence on free and fair elections. That is why the democrats were so rabid to federalize the whole election system while they had power. Talk about a close call!
Another good post. Of course, I don't believe that "open societies" are good. It's like saying "democracy" is inherently good - a foolish statement. Authoritarianism, similarly, isn't inherently bad either. Can it be bad or tends toward bad? Of course.

Even "free and fair" elections won't work when you have something like the 19th amendment. The idea that "democracy" isn't just a stealthy way for other types of control is to completely misunderstand what government even is.
DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:47 am DaK, do you have a projection on what happens in or to the UK?

Where do you stand on the China war, sooner than later, that most around here think will happen?
Hey, sorry for the late reply.

First off, I want to be on the record and say that I've had my suspicions for a while, that most if not all of what the media says about who are supposed to be our allies and who are supposed to be our enemies, is complete BS. But after the USAID revelations, any doubt I may have had is now erased. I'm now at a point where I can't get behind any foreign policy beyond near-total isolationism, because Washington and its media proxies have proven over and over and over again, that they can't be trusted to tell us the truth about what's going on beyond our borders (or even within our borders for that matter). And that's a tragedy, because through their dishonesty they are setting us up to lose any conflict which may come out of their foreign policy adventures. They have burned so many bridges that in the event of such a conflict, a large contingent of the American people would refuse to fight at all, and some would even fight for the enemy, because at they see Washington as they greater evil.

With all that said, at this point I believe war is no longer avoidable. Nothing short of regime change in Washington and/or Beijing could prevent it, and even then regime change could actually do the opposite and cause war to break out instead. More on that in a follow-up post.
DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

DaKardii wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2025 12:57 am With all that said, at this point I believe war is no longer avoidable. Nothing short of regime change in Washington and/or Beijing could prevent it, and even then regime change could actually do the opposite and cause war to break out instead. More on that in a follow-up post.
Since 2023, Neil Howe has been predicting that the Fourth Turning climax will take place around 2033, and the climax event will be a World War II-style conflict. This conflict has already begun, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine being the starting point. If I were to take his prediction to heart and base the timeline of the upcoming Sino-American war on that, I would place the point of no return in either late 2028 or early 2029, at the very end of Trump's term or at the very beginning of his successor's (first) term.

As for who would be the major players, I would go with the nine countries which Aleksandr Dugin implies as being incarnations of globalism and/or nationalism. I'm no fan of Dugin and I find his ideology to be odious, but the reason I'm turning to him as a source is because he's basically the antithesis to Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger, the architects of the "Eurasian Heartland" strategy which forms the core of post-Cold War American foreign policy. Where Brzezinski and Kissinger defined Pax Americana, Dugin defined the reaction which will lead to its ultimate collapse.

With that said, there will be three factions between the nine countries:

SIDE 1
[*]USA
[*]UK
[*]Saudi Arabia

SIDE 2
[*]China
[*]Turkey

SIDE 3
[*]Russia
[*]Japan
[*]Germany
[*]Iran

More information on how things play out between the three sides in a follow-up post.
DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

DaKardii wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:14 am With that said, there will be three factions between the nine countries:

SIDE 1
[*]USA
[*]UK
[*]Saudi Arabia

SIDE 2
[*]China
[*]Turkey

SIDE 3
[*]Russia
[*]Japan
[*]Germany
[*]Iran

More information on how things play out between the three sides in a follow-up post.
The conflict will begin as a proxy war between the USA and Russia. In retaliation for American support of Ukraine, Russia will actively encourage southward expansionism by China and Turkey, while also influencing elections in Japan and Germany to install pro-Russian leadership. This grand strategy will be highly successful, but have dire consequences.

In Europe, NATO will be shattered as tensions rise between pro-USA, pro-UK, and pro-German factions. The pro-German faction eventually will leave NATO and realign with Russia, leaving the alliance much weaker than before. In the Middle East, Turkey and Iran will team up to divide the region between themselves. This eventually will lead to a conflict between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, in which the USA and UK will intervene. In East Asia, Russia and Japan will strike a deal in which Japan realigns with Russia in exchange for the Kurile Islands and protection from China. Russia will then successfully pressure China into leaving Japan alone and focus solely on southward expansion, which leads directly to war between the USA and China.

At this point, it will be the USA, the UK, and Saudi Arabia vs. China and Turkey. Russia, Japan, Germany, and Iran will be sitting on the sidelines for a while, but all will eventually pick a side, with their choices being dependent on their respective relations with the then-combatants. The outcome of the war will be dependent on which side they pick.

When the smoke clears, how much the geopolitical landscape changes will be dependent on which side loses, and whether it is a WWI-style defeat or a WWII-style defeat. More on that below.

SCENARIO 1 (China loses, WWII-style defeat): China is carved up into smaller states, with most falling under the influence of Russia and Japan, who consequently become superpowers. The global order becomes tripolar, with the Russo-American Cold War resuming and Japan playing accordingly.

SCENARIO 2 (China loses, WWI-style defeat): China is significantly weakened but remains a superpower. The global order remains bipolar, with the USA and China continuing their conflict through a Cold War.

SCENARIO 3 (USA loses, WWI-style defeat): The USA is significantly weakened but remains a superpower. Japan becomes a third superpower. The global order becomes tripolar, with the USA and China continuing their conflict through a Cold War and Japan playing accordingly.

SCENARIO 4 (USA loses, WWII-style defeat): The USA is carved up into smaller states, with most falling under the influence of Russia and Japan, who consequently become superpowers. The global order becomes tripolar, with the three superpowers yet to decide on what to do next.
Cool Breeze
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Several questions:

Why is Dugin's thesis "odious"? Why does Russia have to fight anyone, necessarily? I'd ask the same of China. Also, why or how does Japan go from deteriorating, small and dense population with low fertility, to "super" power? As you know, I'm not fixated on demographics as they are largely BS and the world HAS to return to smaller populations anyway, for obvious reasons (and is).

What does Howe really even predict? I don't see much. A "strongman" comes to fore in the USA? I wonder if he considers Mr. Trump that man.
DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2025 1:14 pmSeveral questions:

Why is Dugin's thesis "odious"?
I didn't say his thesis is odious, I said his ideology is. He identifies as a National Bolshevik, I don't know if I even need to explain that one. That said, I find his pro-Western counterparts (Kissinger and Brzezinski) to be odious as well, so it's not like I'm saying one is better than the other. Although as influential geopolitical thinkers their ideas can't be ignored altogether, particularly when discussing topics like this.
Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2025 1:14 pmWhy does Russia have to fight anyone, necessarily? I'd ask the same of China.
Both have imperial ambitions, but those ambitions wouldn't necessarily lead to global war unless either they start fighting with each other or if we get involved in anyway whatsoever. For the most part, we're the one causing the escalation of things.
Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2025 1:14 pmAlso, why or how does Japan go from deteriorating, small and dense population with low fertility, to "super" power? As you know, I'm not fixated on demographics as they are largely BS and the world HAS to return to smaller populations anyway, for obvious reasons (and is).
Japan is one of the two countries which shares a border with both superpowers, the other country being Russia. If either superpower were to collapse and they were on the side of the victorious superpower, they would be in a better position than any other country to pick up the pieces. In the event of an American defeat, Japan becomes a superpower no matter what, while Russia only becomes a superpower (again) if the American defeat is total. In the event of a Chinese defeat, both countries become superpowers only if the Chinese defeat is total. This is going by their projected geopolitical power levels as of 2033, per the Pardee Institute. The same source I used to create my 2025 power rankings at the beginning of the year.
Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2025 1:14 pmWhat does Howe really even predict? I don't see much. A "strongman" comes to fore in the USA? I wonder if he considers Mr. Trump that man.
He doesn't go all that far regarding the details, he's just a generational theorist after all.
FullMoon
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Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

With all that said, at this point I believe war is no longer avoidable.
It hasn't been since it was predicted by John decades ago. Some come to the understanding sooner and some later. It's screamingly obvious now as opposed to before.
Johns predictions of who's on which team are also trending correctly and should become more obvious as the small cracks widen with pressure. Sino/Sunni vs the rest. That puts Saudi peninsula on the Sunni Arab team. Perhaps there will be a leadership change. I'm curious about the largest Muslim country in a strategic position in SE Asia that I never see anyone talking about. Getting the Strait of Malacca would be a significant achievement for China.
John thought the Regeneracy would unite the country and if there were extremists and traitors working with/for the Muslim and Chinese foes, we know there's also tons of people already here but the locals should be in the small minority who would go against their own people. I guess Dak has talked about the similarities between the radical Left and Right who are nihilistic and just want to destroy everything
2027/8 is very close indeed and we should expect huge changes until then which could bring that time forward.
Trump has been making huge moves very recently and he has a much better game and bullpen than his first go of it. He's doing better than most people expected and giving us some hope. The up and down swings should get much bigger as we approach the Regeneracy event.
Jack Edwards
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Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:47 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Jack Edwards »

Saw this on youtube - she's been mentioned before on this forum as haivng paritcularly good insights to inside events in China. In this video she discussed how Xi Jinping is very frustrated with 2 of his advisors for how badly they misread Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VChdFQ3sJAY
Some points she makes
-He thought Trump would be very open to deal but he's putting dealing with China on the back burner.
-Panama - big surprise he went after that so strongly, apparently 400k Chinese live permanently with another 600k their a lot making up 25% of the population.
-Greenland - Apparently China has several research bases there that are run by their Department of Defense.
- Iran - Looks like Iran might be ready to deal with the US
- China not invited to host talks on Ukraine war resolution - being left out of discussions.
- there was also something else about Japan leadership not coming to some meeting in China and an additional topic on a resistance movement in Taiwan that is more effective than the advisor projected.

All the talk about when global war breaks out - Is it good or bad to have China feeling so uncertain? I guess it's inevitable either way.
Cheers
Jack
FullMoon
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Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

US and China Are at War, We Just Can't See It
https://youtu.be/LE6-b3Hanjo?si=4agLVDI6F-qiQBDo

Ray Dalio does a good job of explaining where we're at in Sino/US relations currently.
I'm seeing some other people talk about the fact that China has effectively peaked and any plans that they've developed to topple the US need to be implemented sooner than later. They're conundrum is that they're underprepared, disorganized and somewhat risk averse. Their chances of failure exceed that of success but their sad reality is describing accurately by Zeihan. They're going into the dustbin of history by the end of this decade. Even worse is that they've been led to ruination by the Idiocracy of a cabal of mediocre idiots following a failed philosophy. Don't underestimate for a second the fact that they'll risk the entire global civilization for a small chance to rescue themselves whilst destroying the West as a necessary prerequisite. We've gotten the Wuhan COVID debacle as precedence and evidence that they're already mentally and socially prepared to do so. The fact that it's so diabolical makes it unbelievable for the nice people of the West. Sadly
Navigator
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Sorry for my delay in responding to queries. My wife has had a rough time of late, as she has had to go back to a chemo infusion therapy regimen. Her cancer has moved into her liver, and while she is doing OK right now, any prayers on her behalf would be greatly appreciated.

Now back to the discussion.

The USA is not controlled by any one person, group, or some secret cabal (unlike, say, modern Russia, China, and Iran)

If a Left leaning cabal was controlling things, Trump would never have been elected in either 2016 or 2024.

If a Right leaning cabal was controlling things, Trump would not have lost in 2020 (nor would Obama have been elected in 2008 and 2012).

As for the "Deep State", more on that in the next post.
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