Generational Dynamics World View News

[Trevor]

I think that Trump is going to hamstring Ukraine, if not pull out US support completely.

Unfortunately, I think it is quite personal. Trump had asked Ukraine to investigate Biden corruption while Trump was in his first term. They refused to do so. They also could have validated the Hunter Biden laptop, but, again, refused to do so. So Trump blames Ukraine for being complicit with the Biden's in his losing the 2020 election, which humiliated him.

On top of that, the Bidens were super-supporters of Ukraine during the war. I have no doubt this was because the Ukrainians had the goods on the Biden influence peddling racket that had been going on for years, and that they would have exposed the Bidens had major support not been forthcoming.

So Trump wants to get revenge on the Ukrainians. He is also used to be calling a Russian stooge at this point (thanks to the Democrats), so he has no problem with actually getting cozy with Putin, as the left is already convinced the two are in league.

All of this is a disaster for Ukraine, and they had better accept something quick that allows them some measure of independence from Russia. If not, the country up to the 1939 border between Poland and the USSR may be lost. (about a third of Ukraine, around Lvov, was actually Poland before WW2).

Sadly, I don't think there's going to be a good outcome for Ukraine. If we'd given them what they needed back in 2022, before Russia had transitioned to a wartime economy, things might be different. Neither country is in a good position. Russia's burned through much of their vehicle stockpile, having to resort to 60-year old tanks and IFVs. The bonuses they give to soldiers for signing up are four times bigger than they were at the beginning of 2023. However, Ukraine has similar issues with desertion. Contrary to certain claims, they're not on the verge of collapse, but neither is Russia. I don't think they're going to regain their lost territory unless Russian soldiers desert the battlefield en masse.

Trump has always been a petty man, getting into feuds, but his behavior carries far greater weight as leader of the free world than it does as a private citizen. Let's say he claims he's struck a deal for Russia, giving them around 75% of what they demand: no NATO membership and they get to keep the territory they seized. What happens if Ukraine refuses? I doubt nations like Germany or France will continue aiding them if we don't, but Poland, the Baltics and Finland will. Europe still has time to counter Russia, if they prepare and work to deter them, but that doesn't look likely.

Finland's currently preparing for the worst, calling reservists for refresher training, rebuilding their fortifications. Poland's doubled the size of their military in 2 years and plans further expansion. The contrast with Canada is instructive. For all the hysteria on social media about an imminent American invasion, they're not behaving like it. No plans to increase spending, give reserves refresher training... they don't seriously believe it. It's another way to proclaim how barbaric the Americans are. I don't believe Trump will, either, but his rhetoric is still damaging.

[spottybrowncow]

I'd like to ask Navigator and others who know more than me to weigh in on the Trump-Zelensky "dust-up."

From the perspective of me, a know-nothing commoner, Trump's goal seemed pretty obvious. Putting US "boots on the ground" (which is what Zelensky wanted) in Ukraine would unavoidably heighten the tension, threaten Putin, and increase the risk of an enlarging conflict (yes, WWIII). Striking a mineral deal would provide, if anything, even better security for Ukraine. Thousands of US personnel and possibly hundreds of companies would take up residence in Ukraine, and Putin would probably dare not escalate after he'd signed a peace deal with the risk of hurting US citizens, especially with Trump in charge. Yes, Ukraine would lose territory, but 1) a lot of that ceded territory already speaks Russian, and 2) the guy's got hundreds of nuclear bombs, what's so hard to understand about that? In my opinion, some capitulation is practical and necessary, given the circumstances. Putin would likely never sign a peace deal if it involved US military personnel in Ukraine. If he signed a peace deal under Trump's plan, which would involve Ukraine ceding territory, but ensure a robust US non-military presence, then all hell breaks lose if he violates it. Meanwhile, we steadily build up our military resources, waiting for the next development.

What am I missing?

[spottybrowncow]

Just as I posted this, I saw on the news that Zelensky is ready to sign the "rare mineral deal." Someone had a come-to-Jesus meeting with him. Love to know who it was.

[Jack Edwards]

I'm another know nothing guy, but here is my take:
-Trump is a deal maker.
-Trump bragged he could get this done quickly, and it's not turning out that way. Makes him look bad, which Trump hates.
-Trump doesn't like Ukraine or Zelinsky, but he's still going to try and make a deal that stop the war.
-Trump understands the real threat is China, he wants to clear the table of the other stuff before dealing with China. I think this is key.
-Too many people/nations are taking petty insults too seriously - maybe a sign of our generational cycle. No suit in the office, Vance insulting Europe to their faces, Europe being mad at the US.. lots of tit for tat - could lead to something bad.
-Putin is a dictator for life, that's what he cares about.. he also cares about his legacy. Can he afford to stop the war?? not sure he can, will he be run out of power if the fighting stops? The Russian economy is seriously harmed.
-Zelensky is another wantabe ruler for life. He loses that when the war ends most likely. He also doesn't trust Russia at all - can't blame him.
-Do Zelensky at Putin actually want a cease fire/peace deal or are they just saying that because they have to and will find a reason to not agree to a deal.
-What does China want (which strongly affects what Putin has to do)? On the one hand they may want the grinding war to continue draining resources from the West. It also weakens Russia for the time China stabs them in the back and grabs the Eastern part of Russia.
-Per various cabinet members that have talked with Zelensky, he says one thing in private and another in public, not an honest broker. Maybe he's saying he'll sign a minerals deal now - does he mean it?
My guess is we just keep talking about a cease fire, without actually ending the war because something keeps coming up. The only reason for China to want it to stop is if Russia is weak enough to annex part of or if it thinks continuing it will cause the EU to get serious about re-arming.

It's also possible China looks at Trump and says - "I want no part of that crazy dude" and decides it wants to mess with Russia and grab some of it's resources instead of provoking something with the US. Maybe do some covert messing with us to provoke civil discord. Keep us focused internally instead of externally.

Again, I don't know anything, it's teetering mess that could go a lot of different directions. I suspect if the war stops, it will restart again. There are a lot of influencers that love war and how much money and status they can make from war.

Another thought.. things proceed slowly, than all at once. 4 months ago, DEI was still very entrenched, now it's being tossed out the door like old garbage. We could find ourselves in all sorts of weird international situations with little notice.

Regards.. Jack

[Navigator]

The Trump - Zelensky meeting was obviously a disaster.

The Bidens had been sending huge sums of money and munitions to Ukraine. As I mentioned before, probably due in large measure to the Ukrainians having all kinds of dirt on them (Hunter's big play was with a Ukrainian gas company). Now, I think in large measure to show that he is "different" from the Bidens, Trump wants the aid repaid through some kind of raw material/resource futures contract.

Zelensky doesn't want to have to repay the US, as this would further impoverish Ukraine for decades. He believes, and with good justification, that the US put Ukraine in this position, and that it is Ukrainians who are dying to stop blatant Russian aggression. After all, Ukraine was put in a precarious position by giving up their nukes at Clinton's urging (without solid defensive agreements in return), and then by Obama's complete lack of response to Russia grabbing the Crimea in 2014. Zelensky is also upset about Trump's diplomats starting talks with the Russians without Ukrainian representation at those talks.

Trump evidently wants to be seen as a peacemaker, and to show that the Bidens were so bad that they "allowed" the war to happen. He also wants to show his supporters that we don't just give away money to foreign countries (which is rather simplistic thinking in the sense that Grand Strategy does require this of Great Powers). The Democrat party's insistence that Trump is a Russian stooge has actually made him more "pro-Russian". Trump wants to be seen as a great world diplomat, hence his willingness to do things like meet with the North Korean dictator. He wants to be seen as a peacemaker, and hence his not calling Russia the "aggressor", even though they clearly are.

Zelensky met with Democratic leaders prior to his meeting with Trump at the White House. They evidently reiterated that Trump was bad and under Russian influence, and told Zelensky to play hardball with Trump. Really really bad advice.

Zelensky then insulted Trump by not wearing a suit, and Trump is known to really look down on people who don't, in his opinion, dress the part (he has made fun of cabinet members not wearing expensive suits).

For my part, I cannot understand why Zelensky did not just "stow it", and basically kowtow to what Trump wants, at least in the short term. Ukraine is utterly dependent on US support. They will outright lose the war without it. The only way to play Trump is to tell him what he wants to hear. How great he is, what a great leader he is, how he is currently Ukraine's savior, all that kind of stuff. Getting into a shouting match with him, especially in front of the press, is just a disaster for Ukraine. Trump WILL take it out on them.

Ukraine's idea of getting their lost territory back at this point is a pipe dream. The only way that happens is if they drive the Russians out, which they are unable to do. The only hope for peace is to give the Russians what they have already taken. And they know that the Russians will just want more later on.

NATO membership is a complete non-starter, as the Europeans do not want to have to defend Ukraine. The dirty secret is that they would willingly give the Ukraine back to Russia if Russia would just be quiet and not attack anybody else.

The way things are going right now, peace is going to be imposed on Ukraine on Russian terms. Ukraine will be neutered. And the Russians will be able to pivot to help the Chinese when the Chinese make their ultimate moves.

[spottybrowncow]

Thanks, Navigator and Jack.

You don't think that Trump wants to get closer to Russia at least partly to pull them from China, who he sees as the greater threat? John was pretty adamant that Russia and the U.S. would be on the same side in the next clash of civilizations. As an aside, I work with a Russian who grew up in Ukraine. He said unequivocally that the average Russian feels much more kindly disposed to Americans than to the Chinese, whom they do not trust at all.

[Jack Edwards]

Spotty said:

Thanks, Navigator.
You don't think that Trump wants to get closer to Russia at least partly to pull them from China, who he sees as the greater threat? John was pretty adamant that Russia and the U.S. would be on the same side in next clash of civilizations.

I believe John's logic was:
Russia and China share a border, China wants the East of Russia. They have been at war before. Russians consider themselves more European. Russia and India are close Allies. Pakistan and China are close Allies. Pakistan and India are bitter enemies. Russia was allied with the West against Hitler.

So John believed it would happen again. I don't see it.. I think most people think Russia can just go rot if they get in trouble.

Also, thanks to Navigator for his insights.
Regards Jack

[Trevor]

To add to what Navigator and Jack have said, I watched the full video of the dispute between Trump and Zelenskyy. Neither of them came out looking very good. They couldn't even keep the dispute in private, instead ranting at each other in full view of the cameras.

Ukraine's always had a huge issue with corruption. They've improved compared to what it was 20 years ago and it's not as extreme as Russia, but it's still rather bad. It was foolish of Zelenskyy to confront Trump in public. Yes, I understand his position, but the reality is that Ukraine is a regional power heavily dependent on the United States for assistance, and having a public altercation is only going to make his position worse. Truthfully, the best way to win Trump over is to kiss his ass; you don't even have to be sincere about it. He's such as narcissist that he'll love it anyway.

The reality is, Ukraine's not going to be able to get back its lost territory without direct NATO intervention and that was never going to happen. They've done far better than anyone expected at the beginning, but Russia has transitioned into a wartime economy; this isn't Vietnam or Afghanistan. Russia's taking more losses, but Putin can afford to throw his men away; Zelenskyy can't and both know it. Putin has staked not only his reputation but his life on victory in Ukraine, cutting off all possible escape routes. Russia outnumbers Ukraine 4-1, and they've historically beaten their enemies by drowning them in bodies.

Trump wanted to be seen as a great peacemaker, having a deal done quickly, but it's not turning out that way. Wars are a lot harder to end than to start. Zelenskyy trusts Putin as far as I can spit a brick and I don't blame him in the slightest.

Ever since this spat, I've seen countless hysterical people from Europe all over social media, screaming: "How dare you do this to us? We'll never trust America again!" "This is the end of American dominance; we can look after ourselves!" I have a hard time taking it seriously, since Europe's known this was at least a possibility for a year now. Trump's never been shy expressing his hostility to Ukrainian aid. They've known Trump would be President for five months now.

My question: what are you actually willing to do about it, besides make grandiose, self-righteous speeches about betrayal? When aid was held up, they made noise about self-reliance, but little more. They've done next to nothing in terms of standing up for their own defense. For the past three years, most have been content to let us do the heavy lifting, often not willing to send aid unless we did it first. There are exceptions, but that's been the rule. The cynical side of me says they don't really want to help Ukraine, either, preferring to have America do it while they focus on climate change, all the while proclaiming how civilized and enlightened they are compared to us.

I doubt that's going to change until Ukraine collapses. We put too much faith in anti-war protests removing Putin. Ukraine's far more likely to collapse at this point. Probably not in the near term (6-9 months) but this isn't something they can sustain. Russian mobilization has never stopped, only doing, conscripting poor Russian and ethnic minorities that aren't in a position to do anything about it. Ukraine's resorting to the same thing.

China is a far bigger threat and Trump's aware of this. For the CCP, the war in Europe benefits them in some ways, weakening Russia and distracting the U.S., but it's also prompted Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and others to begin their own modernization programs.

[Jack Edwards]

Trevor's comments prompted some thoughts of my own on this Zelensky interview fiasco.

I've been very critical of Trump and never voted for him, despite being fairly conservative. I detest his style. That being said, my style would never fix the corruption in our government and my style would have tried to negotiate with the DEI guys, and it's obvious to me now, that the only way to deal with corruption and the DEI mind virus is to treat it with excess and immediate force like he's doing.

What I'm seeing is a complete change in thought through a near majority of the population. Kill DEI, Kill government corruption. With the independents, for now, it's a majority of the people. It's also turned us inward, we care less about the rest of the world right now, we are dealing with our own issues which are more important to us.

There are still pockets of progressivism that are playing the old tapes. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, the staff at the Washington Post for example. And, it's not working. The Democrats are also still playing these tapes too, standing up for the losing issues.

That's what happened to Zelensky. He came into this playing the same old tapes... "of course the USA will eventually come through, they don't really mean what they say". He listened to people in Europe and the Democrats who still believe nothing has really changed.. but it has.

I feel sorry for the Ukranians. They don't want to be Russians. I feel some disdain for the Europeans, though I know it's just a cousin-squabble and we'll work it out somehow.. but being lectured at by folks who are further down the woke toilet bowl than we were, and who don't care enough about their own safety to fund their own defense - or retain their impressive culture (but instead are letting it become Islamified).. It's easy to say, now that we're inward looking - "I can't care more about your security than you do". The overwhelming response I see to fool hardy claims by Europeans that they'll start leading this is "GREAT!! it's all yours!".

Anyway, it's a different world, and Zelensky didn't realize it, and the European elites didn't realize it and the hard core D's are just delusional and hate everything Trump. Zelensky blew it. they only thing going for Ukraine is that Trump wants there to be a peace deal (and Russia has been fairly inept).

Regards, Jack.

[Bob Butler]

I still feel containment is beneficial. I don’t favor one culture crushing another using force of arms, law, prejudice, or other. This generally leads me to favor the defense, be it the Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan or the various American minorities. Trump’s favoring Jewish over Arab peoples or attempts to suppress negro, latino. and gay communities is thus dubious. Europe’s discouraging war of aggression is not.

If conservatives in less populated areas favor low taxes and less service while progressives in population dense areas favor more taxes and more service that ought to be answered with federalism. The denser high population blue states might just favor the services. To some extent, however, the avoidance of services is a result of prejudice. The poorer people are the minorities thus are denied services. Ugh.

But the longer an organization persists, the more corrupt, inefficient and regulation bound it becomes. Something could be said for tearing everything down occasionally. I tend to see Trump more concerned with revenge than efficiency. He is going to far too fast. He is hurting enough of the people who voted conservative to create a backlash. The tariff trade war disrupting the economy will become major in time. The tariffs and shifting of Canadian and Mexican trade are just beginning. Folks are yet to feel the worst of the economic damage.

After all, we seem to be bouncing back and forth between the two parties. The people are not happy with either, but this is the largest impact in recent times.

Ideally, we could see a purge of inefficiency that is short term given the economic fallout. More federalism. The red areas perhaps or perhaps not doing well lacking legal, health and education services, the blue states often replacing purged central federal services. I anticipate a reaction against Trump resulting in building services back better.