Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Cool Breeze]

I've told you, it's managed and the new liquidity as well as Fed maneuvers will maintain the price. Of course, that doesn't mean purchasing power is retained. Quite the contrary. This is yet another good example of what I've been telling you all for years, that you apparently won't entertain.

So you don't think that in nominal terms we will get a stock market crash? That they will devalue the dollar fast enough that the S&P500 number does not go down?

If they devalue the dollar by a factor of 2 in a short time then inflation is out of control. The price of oil and everything else will double. So everyone gets out of bonds and the Fed has to buy all the bonds with newly printed money. So you get a death spiral: the faster the fed prints the faster people sell their bonds, the faster people sell their bonds the faster the Fed prints. Very soon you have $37 trillion in newly printed cash. The cash is worthless.

The bond market is much larger than the stock market. I think the Fed would rather see stocks crash than see the bond market and dollar destroyed.

So Anguilla is having an election next week. Some politicians think taking the operation of .ai and giving it to a foreign company was a bad move. So the politician that did it attacked me to justify this move (was moved Jan 15 from me to Identity Digital). I responded with a video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTOxTY2t-A4

Over the short term, we can get a decent to big move down nominally, but it will bounce back, because they are locked into making sure they get capital gains and retain the same political power over the current demographics. Remember what happened in 2020?

The play is to keep extending as long as you can, and hope that AI or robot productivity replaces the loss in GDP due to the massive social and cultural destruction you've caused (men checking out and women not actually being productive, which also leads to less people, another part of the plan). The reason they can do it is why Japan was able to, and went even higher than people thought possible at 150% debt to GDP. Notice that they aren't even the world reserve, so obviously the US can pull it off. One of the general problems with this site is that just like everything else in the internet and media world (believe me, I had to come to understand this as well over time), any single person thinks that things will happen much fast than they actually play out. If you open yourself to this possibility, you'll see it screaming at you on this site, and if you don't, you're not paying attention. It's been about 5 years since I posted and you can go back and check what guys were saying in the early 2010s.

Now, do I think that there will be a fairly big drawdown next year? Yes. But they'll print it up past that to new ATHs.

[Higgenbotham]

Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world.

Ray Dalio Stuns Tucker Carlson

18:28
How different do you expect the entire
18:30
Global landscape to be in four years?

I
18:32
think we're going to we're going through
18:33
a Time Warp that you are going to
18:37
see not only this the debt the internal
18:40
the external changes the changing world
18:43
order as we're talking about the changes
18:45
in technology and what that's going to
18:47
mean for our lives artificial
18:49
intelligence and so on that is going to
18:51
it's almost going to be like going into
18:53
through a Time Warp and we're going to
18:55
be in a whole different world it's going
18:58
to be shockingly different in that time
19:00
frame.

Ray Dalio thank you very much.

Thank
19:02
you too I appreciate it.

https://youtu.be/W9FWcX71U7M?t=1100

[aeden]

ML that is machine code 5 axis work is picking up as zone is steady and lucid to product value added flows.
You have a shortage of people who rather not think and those who are filling the gap in real time production.
Value added services are steady as not to confuse the facts. Fifteeen years old are building code based solution I know.
Electricians will ML solutions as I see in real time as educational tech centers place focused peole into real time
solutions. I had two projects targeted and machines hours as inventory as if/then solutions engaged.
Capex was coming in as Opex dependablity kept in going as SAP improved work flows in some areas that needed improvements.
The current polo-tics of swamp envy are inept to a magnitude as liken to a water buffalo mired in mud on its last moments.
The beltway rot and coruption is a feature of the Keynesian Veiled structual inflation death cult as the thousands rot in the Fields.
Amos was right.
Cursed they are to eternal agony as pointed out also.

But Abraham replied, ‘Son, remember that in your lifetime you received your good things, while Lazarus received bad things, but now he is comforted here and you are in agony. And besides all this, between us and you a great chasm has been set in place, so that those who want to go from here to you cannot, nor can anyone cross over from there to us.’

He answered, ‘Then I beg you, father, send Lazarus to my family, for I have five brothers.
Let him warn them, so that they will not also come to this place of torment.’
Abraham replied, ‘They have Moses and the Prophets; let them listen to them.’
No, father Abraham,’ he said, ‘but if someone from the dead goes to them, they will repent.’
He said to him, If they do not listen to Moses and the Prophets, they will not be convinced even if someone rises from the dead.

[Higgenbotham]

Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia
Tucker Carlson

I mean, I don't know where we're going. I can't tell you.
22:37
I cannot tell you what this world I, I do believe we're going to go through a time warp.
22:42
Okay. What? I mean, it's going to feel like you're going through (a time warp) over the next
22:47
five years. And that environment is because of these five major forces
22:52
that do all of these things. And the changes in the technologies, particularly artificial intelligence
22:59
and related technologies. So the world five years from now is going to be a radically
23:05
different world. And I don't know what that's going to look like when you go into the world of quantum computing
23:11
and what quantum is like in so many different ways. It raises questions of, you know, what is that like?
23:17
I I'm not smart enough to tell you what that world is going to be like.


That's true for 50 years.


Who is in control?
23:22
I don't know who's in control.


Okay. So. But. Right. So this is like the opposite of what you've done your whole life,
23:28
where you try to predict, you know, five years hence, That's your whole business, right?


Well, that's my
23:34
my business is to try to predict. But I'd say first thing, whatever success I've had in life
23:41
has more to been due to my knowing how to deal with what I don't know
23:47
than anything I know. Okay. So how you deal with what you don't know, I believe
23:52
think is so important. So I guess my my business in a nutshell is I try
23:58
to find a bunch of bets that I think are good bets but to diversify well so
24:04
that I have a bunch of diversified bets. That's because I do not know. I mean, in terms of my
24:10
actual track record, I've probably been right about 65% of the time. Okay.
24:15
And I and any one bad bet can kill you. So I've known how to deal with that. That's what I've learned.
24:21
Including how to deal with what I don't know.


So now you're describing an environment where you can't really
24:27
know anything about the world in five years.


You. Well, I can know. I could place good bets.
24:33
Okay. There are some things that are highly knowable. Okay. Highly knowable.
24:39
Like they say, you know, death and taxes. Right. Okay. Demographics.
24:44
X. Okay. So I can know or have a view, for example, that owning,
24:51
I believe, owning debt assets is not going to be a good thing. So I could think about alternative
24:57
store holds of wealth. I can think about that. I can place some bets
25:02
at that. Allow me. You know, they're not the certain bets, but I can place enough bets
25:08
and have enough diversification that I can be relatively confident of some things,
25:15
but never absolutely or totally confident. But I think when we're coming back
25:20
anyway, that's the reality. I'm just describing my, our, reality the best I can.
25:25
That's why people who are confident in the future and are just experiencing the present,
25:31
you know, right now. People are describing. All of them are describing how
25:37
things are. And almost everybody thinks
25:43
the future is going to be a modified version of that.


Pure extrapolation forward. Yeah.


25:48
Okay. Things are good. All right. I get it. Okay. Thanks. Well, I'll guarantee
25:53
you there will be big changes.


So those are dumb people. You're saying making those?


I'm not.
25:59
I'm saying it's understood. It's understandable. But when you study change
26:04
and the nature of change. It's a you know, the world changes
26:10
in dramatic ways because of causes that we can look at and get a good understanding
26:16
of. I actually can't be sure about anything because of the nature.

https://youtu.be/0j1gcGD5DrA?t=1354

[Higgenbotham]

Does the combination of AI and robotics bring manufacturing back to the United States?


30:47
We are behind. And in both of those areas. Yes, greatly behind, you know, so.
30:56
You know, I would say we're not going to be have competitive advantages in those things.
31:02
What we're what we're competitive in is that small percentage of the population that
31:08
is uniquely inventive in terms of inventiveness.
31:14
You know, the number of Nobel Prize winners in United States United States dominates Nobel
31:20
Prize winners in the world, the inventiveness, best universities and so on. We have a system
31:26
that is a legal system and a capital market system, and we can bring the best from the
31:32
world all to the United States to create an environment of we could work well together
31:38
in that inventiveness with rule of law working and all of that working.
31:44
We have those things that are competitive advantage. We do not have manufacturing
31:49
and we're not going to go back and be competitive in manufacturing with China. In our lifetimes, I
31:56
don't believe.

https://youtu.be/0j1gcGD5DrA?t=1841

[Higgenbotham]

Over the past month, the stock market has made a few false starts to the downside before going back up to or near all time highs. My guess is that Friday's move down is the start of the real move which leads to the first longer lasting wave of a bear market. This first wave may last a few months.

If the stock market goes below today's low Friday or Monday I will cover about 5-10% of my short. So far I've only covered about 1% today near the low. If I'm able to do that, I will only play for a 1-3 day bounce, guessing the downtrend will resume after that.

Today I put orders in (to cover) far below the market in case there is a flash crash and screens go dark.

[Higgenbotham]

President Donald Trump said Thursday that his administration would not consider stock market reaction when hammering out the details of its tariff policy.

When asked whether the decision to pause tariffs on many products from Canada and Mexico for one month was due to the stock market, Trump said the decision had “nothing to do with the market. I’m not even looking at the market, because long term the United States will be very strong with what is happening here.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-s ... arket.html

Trump is probably right that continuing to pump the bubble and all that entails is no longer in the best interests of the country, and hasn't been since the early 2000s or maybe even the early 1980s, as some have said. So take your pick as to where the bubble has to deflate back to, or should deflate back to, in order to reclaim the country.

Trump made the remarks in the Oval Office on Thursday at an event for signing executive orders. Trump was later asked again about the market sell-off and blamed “globalists,” a term he had used to describe companies and countries earlier in the event.

“I think it’s globalists that see how rich our country’s going to be and they don’t like it. Big market out there. But again, they’ve been ripping off this country for years. And they’re going to do great — everyone’s going to do great. But we can’t let this continue to happen to America. Otherwise we’re not going to have a country any longer,” the president said.

Globalization started in earnest in the early 1990s.

Last night, I went through a bag of old hardware from the late 80s and early 90s. Nowadays, most everything is stamped Made in China, so I was curious as to whether I would find such a stamp on any of this old hardware. I did not. Most of the hardware items in the bag were not the type to be stamped (things like bolts) but of the ones that were stamped, all were Made in USA. They are shown below.

Dalio says we can't manufacture here again. We sure as hell can but there will be a price to be paid. It won't be a price that the hedge fund industry will like, though.

[Higgenbotham]

"These global financial forces have lost Washington..." -Viktor Orban (at 0:44 in his X video linked below)

https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1896990947902099618

[aeden]

Fri Mar 07, 2025 12:51 am
"These global financial forces have lost Washington..." -Viktor Orban (at 0:44 in his X video linked below)
https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1896990947902099618

viewtopic.php?p=69281#p69281

As we noted the Balkins are another key just as the corridor attacks was not reported but John did for me.
The result is just math as the existing 12,000 km journey for oil transportation to China will be reduced to just 2,395 km.
This is estimated to save China $2 billion per year.

The files indicated this and here we are. In my view alone mid month and march sweeps was clear.
What we do know and the currect evil of useful and cheerful and village NGO idiots rat lines are not severe enough.

Meanwhile demsheviks here act as anticipated. Stupidity wrapped in malice.

Review: https://www.ancient-origins.net/artifac ... ent-020759

Your wisdom H has preserved capital as +10.68% to allocate as the march sweeps enter the next phase while the Office deal with fools in temperance
and agility.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTAA4cBRZEM
thread: l8ter

[Higgenbotham]

viewtopic.php?p=69281#p69281

As we noted the Balkins are another key just as the corridor attacks was not reported but John did for me.

Thankfully, John's son Jason has ensured the forum will remain online and his Dad's analysis is still available to answer any questions. We just provide the confirmation now and going forward.