Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

Back to 100 percent of my account short.

Was wondering.

Just covered 8 percent of my short position near 5130 on the S&P. Still have 92 percent of my account in SDS. Maybe the 5100 area will hold for awhile or maybe the market will cut right through it or gap below it on Monday. Three hours until the close can seem like forever in a market like this and a lot can happen. It doesn't feel like there's been a panic washout yet. But I want to have room to trade a bit in the event the S&P tries to form a head and shoulders on the daily, which would imply a rally back to about 5600.

Covered another 2 percent after the cash close; 90 percent in SDS.

Went to 95 percent SDS at about 5400 on the S&P. The S&P closed today at 5456 and is up 25 in the after market. As long as it stays around here (hopefully higher) I will go back to 100 percent tomorrow morning.

[Higgenbotham]

Also, google has blocked most of what is on this site, so I can't get it that way either.

Which means you are probably right.

That's a reasonable assumption.

Recently, I searched on google for "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" - you know I've used that phrase numerous times.

Today's results are different:

[Higgenbotham]

My take on the stock market tends to be too bearish.

I think there will be several more days, somewhere between 5 and 10, of large losses before there is anything more than a one day relief rally. The S&P could be cut more than half from the all time high during that time, maybe to 2800.

Probably this will be wrong. If it's right, I may quote it, but nobody should take it seriously. Several times I have said the stock market would collapse massively by 2016.

Every dog has its day.

With the S&P having been down over 300 this morning, yesterday seems to have been a one day relief rally. Those will come and they will give hope to the bulls, which is needed to maintain the downtrend.

A typical crash wave of 1.618 times wave a would take the S&P to about 3300.

After that, I would expect a second crash wave similar to the lower low that happened in November 1929 after the late October crash.

[Higgenbotham]

Billionaire investor Dalio warns that Trump’s tariffs are just the tip of the iceberg

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio suggested that the global “market meltdown” triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff policy last week revealed more than “just short-term volatility and flight to safety.” He argued that tariffs are more than just about tax revenue–they are also a way for countries to prepare their economies for times of conflict and war.

Dalio argued that tariffs are mere “symptoms of five underlying forces reshaping the global order,” including rapidly mounting debt, domestic politics, a shift in how geopolitical power is wielded, acts of nature, and how technological innovations such as AI impact the world’s economy.

Dalio argues that Trump’s tariffs are just part of what drives everything

Dalio started by saying that a huge amount of attention is currently being “justifiably” paid to the announced ‘Trump tariffs’ and their “very big impacts on markets and economies” while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. He pointed out that people mostly overlooked the more important forces that drove “just about everything,” including the tariffs.

Bitcoin’s decline below the $75K level less than 24 hours ago, according to on-chain data, coupled with the broader crypto market’s rapid 7% drop over the past weekend since “Liberation Day” point to what Dalio described as a “classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders” rather than simply a reaction to trade policy.

However, Dalio stressed that it is “helpful to keep in mind that what was happening now was just a ‘modern version’ of what had happened many times throughout history.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... c0a0&ei=16

Likewise, the appearance of Trump is a symptom. If not Trump, it would be somebody else. It's just time.

However, I would mention that more and more people joining the "Avert Doom" camp entrenches the proliferation of ideas like "If we can just get rid of Trump, we can avert doom." The election of Trump is confirmation that "Post Doom" is where we are already headed.

[Higgenbotham]

April 19, 1775 Start of Revolutionary War
April 12, 1861 Start of Civil War

It seems to be the consensus that, "World War II is generally considered to have begun on 1 September 1939."

There was 86 years between 1775 and 1861. Adding 86 years to 1939 is 2025. Perhaps it's just time. April or September or none of the above, take your pick.

[Higgenbotham]

Higgie,

That's a beautiful plan, but what do you plan to do when others come by (worst case scenario, I think Greer calls them 'warbands") and help themselves to the fruits of your labor?

So I was just standing on a step ladder driving 10 loot lengths of rebar into the ground with a sledge hammer to use for garden stakes. That's a lot of work. I thought how deep do I want to drive these in? Decided I'd better make it 4 feet so nobody can pull them out.

[FullMoon]

There was 86 years between 1775 and 1861. Adding 86 years to 1939 is 2025. Perhaps it's just time. April or September or none of the above, take your pick

I doubt we'll actually know when the water is officially boiling because we're in the water which has progressively gotten hotter. Could be the Russian/Ukraine war is given the nod as the start. For the average person it will be when the power is out and there's nothing provided to sustain them on a regular basis and therefore their life turns upside down in days.

[Higgenbotham]

I doubt we'll actually know when the water is officially boiling because we're in the water which has progressively gotten hotter. Could be the Russian/Ukraine war is given the nod as the start. For the average person it will be when the power is out and there's nothing provided to sustain them on a regular basis and therefore their life turns upside down in days.

I don't know Generational Dynamics and Fourth Turning theory as well as I should. I did do a deep dive into the Gray Champion stuff and think I got that right. But I think what the theory says is there are dates when people wake up out of their slumber and realize the world has changed. In the last crisis, for the US, I thought for the war it was December 7, 1941 (Pearl Harbor). I would have to agree that an official agreed-upon start that gets agreed on some time in the future can come and go here and everyone will still be asleep. Meanwhile, what I am saying at home is it is better to prepare while you can, not when you have to. As I prepare, I see a lot of evidence as to why that is true. I was just able to get 400 feet of stainless steel aircraft cable. Who knows if that will be available in 2 years and if it is, what it will cost.

[tim]

I have had several people I am acquainted with start up a conversation out of nowhere about how the stock market is suppose to crash and how every 80 years there is a financial collapse and a war.

They started learning about current events from podcasts and other non-traditional media. They might have seen stories on the Joe Rogan show or Bannon's show.

These people were the type to stay away from the news and politics and just kind of go with the flow.

What I have taken from this is we can't be far from the catalyzing event. There seems to have been a mood shift from "war with China is impossible they need us" to "its possible" from my own anecdotal view.

[tim]

Thanks for your comments.

I've been doing this now for 12-13 years. It's gone through stages.
At first it was a theoretical exercise, almost as if I were solving a
math problem. Then it began to become more real, as things began to
happen. I was always able to rationalize this in my mind as being
able to pretend that I was a Martian watching what was happening
without any emotional attachment. Sometimes I would joke was that it
was like we were all in a moving theater watching a horrible movie,
and the doors are locked so we can't get out.

In recent years there's been a new stage. I write about horrible
things every day -- hundreds of girls in Nigeria being abducted and
raped, people in shopping markets being blown apart by car bombs,
people going through industrial strength torture in Syria, thousands
of people being killed with barrel bombs filled with bullets and
chlorine, China's military arming for a massive missile attack on the
United States, the massive criminality. I like to tell myself that I
can write about these things and not be personally affected, but
that's more and more difficult every day. Instead of being a Martian
watching these events from afar, I'm actually in the center of a
swirling tornado, being sucked in along with everyone else.

One thing I think about all the time is -- how come I'm the only one
doing something like this? Or, perhaps more to the point, why do I,
John Xenakis, seem to be only person in the world capable of doing it?
I know that with over 7 billion people in the world, that statement is
preposterous. And yet, after 12 years, my web site is unique in the
world. How is that possible? A lot of the things that I write about
don't even require anything like generational theory. There are
plenty of people in the world who have the same or superior analytical
abilities as me, and yet that doesn't seem to make a difference.

Also puzzling is other people's reactions to my web site. Some want
to read it every day, others absolutely can't stand it, and can't
stand me as a result. Ten years ago, friends I've known for years
treated my a harmless kook, but now, as the world worsens as predicted
by my web site, those friends now shun me. This is similar to the
mythical Cassandra, whom I've written about many time.

Over the weekend, I heard something that really struck a chord. There
was a BBC World Service show called "Why Factor," with the subject
"Sad/Gloomy Music." It turns out that some people can listen to sad
music and really enjoy it, while other people listen to sad music and
absolutely can't stand it.

The only "happy" music sample they played was The Beatles - I Want to
Hold your Hand. They played samples of a number of "sad" music songs:

Billie Holiday - Gloomy Sunday
James Taylor - Riding on a Railroad
Joni Mitchell - River
Kylie Minogue - Can't Get You Out of My Head
Johann Sebastian Bach - Prelude in B minor, number 24
Mikhail Ivanovich Glinka - La Separation
Felix Mikhailovich Blumenfeld - Etude Sur Mer
Arvo Pärt - Spiegel Im Spiegel
Djivan Gasparyan - I Am Outcast By You
The Rankin Family - Chi Mi Na Morbheanna
Oliver Mtukudzi - Neria
Víctor Jara - Te Recuerdo Amanda
Rain - M.R Shajarian
Chris Isaak - Wicked Games
Samuel Barber - Adagio for Strings

According to the show, the last in this list is the most popular
sad song among the show's listeners.

The show described the differences in chord structure between happy
and sad music, but unfortunately I know nothing about music and didn't
understand, which is too bad.

However, the difference is also generational: In the 1960s, most
popular music had the "happy" chord structure, while in the 2000s,
most popular music had the "sad" chord structure.

This also struck a chord with me. For my whole life, I've always
loved Great Band Era music, 1935-45, and I still have a large record
collection of Great Band Era songs. I'm going to guess that most
Great Band Era music had the "sad" chord structure, and I'm going to
guess that that's the reason I like it a lot more than most popular
music, and I'm going to guess that my enjoyment of Great Band Era
music is related to my being able to do this web site every day.

There's a theory having to do with the hormone prolactin. It has to
do with milk production in pregnant women, and has no known normal
function in men. However, there's some research that people who like
sad music have an excess of prolactin, and those who hate sad music
don't have enough prolactin. So maybe what makes me unique is that my
blood is overflowing with prolactin. And also, maybe the people who
read my web site have more prolactin than average, and those who can't
stand it have less.

According to Prof David Huron of Ohio State University: The research
shows that for ordinary sadness, when we're in that state, we are our
most deadly realistic in our self-appraisal. It has beneficial
effects on judgment, on memory, all sorts of cognitive benefits that
happen from being in a saddened state.

So if we apply all this to me, then this is the theory: I have an
above average analytical ability, I have just the right education,
and, most important, I have too much prolactin in my blood. And
that's why, Dear Reader, I'm able to write for this web site every
day. And for similar reasons, that's why you read it every day.

Links:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01gmhx6
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/whyfactor
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/wor ... -1445a.mp3