Instead, I do see them going for a much more aggressive approach, probably a surprise attack against USN targets and western Pacific US bases (Guam, Okinawa), once they decide to pull the trigger.
Navi,
That would really be an incredibly aggressive response. Do you really think they're that desperate? That would awaken the (hopefully still there, currently sleeping) U.S. war machine, while not damaging the homeland. Possibly the worst choice for the CCP. The only thing more aggressive would be nuking the U.S. homeland, which even the CCP knows would probably not work out in anyone's favor.
The CCP's only hope of successfully invading Taiwan is if they are able to neutralize the USN (and USAF) at the start. Also, they would need some dramatic wins at the beginning in order to capture/solidify popular support in China.
I think it is highly likely that they will use nukes at sea, and probably also against the US airbases in Guam and Okinawa. They would then swear that they are not hitting civilian targets, and would talk down nuclear exchange (which, right now, they are not ready for).
It is certainly questionable if they would be successful in taking Taiwan, but the war would most certainly devolve into a ground war (the true Chinese strength) on multiple, multiple fronts.
This China analyst thinks that Navigator's Island hopping strategy is the most likely scenario in the year half year. It's a good argument and she is very knowledgeable anddwells on Chinese politics quite deeply. She starts by saying that the question now regarding war is not if, but when.
We can see how fast things are ramping up and starting to feel like being out of control.
Time for preparing is ending and time for using what you have is very near. Both on an individual level and national. PRC will have to account for it's good and energy access. USA should be self sufficient. SHOULD BE. Hopefully this critical infrastructure is hardened to attack... They'll have to secure their supply lines, echoes to WW2...
As the India/Pakistan conflict is becoming heated again, due to the 26 tourists killed, I found this 1 year old video fairly informative as to the issues that Pakistan has been dealing with. They may be looking to enter a war against India as a way to distract their own population from their domestic and economic issues, just like China may.
Another one that's longer but gives a more geopolitical discussion.
Sushant Sareen Explains Pakistan's Real Truth - Military, Politics, Economy & Chaos by BeerBiceps https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUs7JPf3rsg
As the India/Pakistan conflict is becoming heated again, due to the 26 tourists killed, I found this 1 year old video fairly informative as to the issues that Pakistan has been dealing with. They may be looking to enter a war against India as a way to distract their own population from their domestic and economic issues, just like China may.
Another one that's longer but gives a more geopolitical discussion.
Sushant Sareen Explains Pakistan's Real Truth - Military, Politics, Economy & Chaos by BeerBiceps https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUs7JPf3rsg
Tensions soar as India weighs how to hit Pakistan
After the Kashmir attack, military action is possible but comes with huge risks
Photograph: AFP
Apr 27th 2025|Delhi and Islamabad https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/ ... t-pakistan
India Seems to Be Building Its Case for Striking Pakistan
As world powers face multiple crises, the one set off by a terror attack in Kashmir is getting scant attention or help in de-escalating between nuclear-armed neighbors
Mujib Mashal
By Mujib Mashal
Reporting from New Delhi
April 27, 2025
Updated 7:02 a.m. ET https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/27/worl ... shmir.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Let’s take the office building story step-by-step:
Between 2010 and 2020, millions of square feet of office space were financed with unnaturally cheap credit.
During the pandemic, millions of Americans discovered that they prefer working from home and refused to return to the office. Occupancy rates for many office buildings, as a result, are now so low that cash flow doesn’t cover expenses.
The post-pandemic inflation spike forced governments to raise interest rates just as loans on thousands of office buildings are coming up for refinancing. Combine lower cash flow with higher interest expense, and the result is plummeting valuations for many office buildings.
The Trump administration begins cutting the federal workforce, further emptying already underused offices. The result: a mountain of bad commercial real estate paper festering on bank balance sheets, threatening a banking crisis in the coming year.
Can An Economy Grow While Its Real Estate Tanks? Nope
Housing is a lead weight, while office space is a ticking time bomb. Neither is conducive to steady 3% non-inflationary growth. They might be the first dominoes to fall, as in 2008, or they might contribute to a crisis caused by geopolitics or an equities bear market. Either way, real estate is definitely part of the “imminent recession” story.
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5
