Yah. The greater the disaster, the greater the need for progressive change. We're getting a bunch of disaster. The rich elites having too much say in government? Too much prejudice?
Personally, I'd rather the current system had been preserved by a Kamala victory, but with Trump we are getting a true economic collapse and constitutional crisis. A real S&H crisis, missing only a crisis war thus far. Still, give him time...
I believe the basic premise of what happens is attributable to the fate of the situation rather than the moves of the players at the time. What's happening is what's already been spoken of here. It's happening now. If Trump didn't push the situation (which actually is more in the long term favor of our nation as it appears with the currently known circumstances), it would have eventually happened regardless.
The forest is tinder dry and the wells had no water. L.A. USA
We soon enough will forget petty squaggles because a true crisis unites the people. Given this second basic assumption, we're currently still ascending in crisis level. Getting scary up here.
Looks like the Yemen/Iran theater just got a big boost. Didn't we just officially announce that all Houthi actiona will be blamed on Iran? How did they get a missile through? We already know that the satellite guidance needed is Chinese. This is pretty bad....
Replying to FullMoon's post on 2030 singfularity timing.
I can't recall if John guessed at 2030, or gave a range. Here's some thoughts I have though:
Moore's law simplified is that information processing doubles every 18 months. I've heard that's slowed down a bit lately as we reach physical limits of transistor size.
The singularity is where information processing changes completely and doubles at a much faster rate, creating a discontinuity in the processing curve
AI is now becoming a thing, I saw a video where an expert estimated AI was doubling how smart/intelligent it is every 6 months. Not sure how that's measured or how to square that with Moore's law. If AI intelligence is the same thing as information processing, than we may be entering a knuckle of the "singularity", where the rate of change isn't a single point, but a range of time.
AI at the moment is fast and smart at some things, but also misses some significant things. If you tried to run a company just off of just AI right now, it wouldn't work.
However, if intelligence of AI double every 6 months, it really won't be long until AI starts being smarter than the smartest person. 5 years is 10 doublings or 1000X smarter. As an engineer, I'm frankly astounded that AI can take problems I had in classes in college and solve them in seconds - where is would take me hour(s) in a team to get the same results. Where will we be in 5 years?? Think of all the expensive occupations that are really just about transferring knowledge.. Doctors, Teachers, Engineers, Accountants, Lawyers - will we all be obsolete? (hint the occupations with the most staying power are the ones that actually physically do something, like plumbing... until robots can be built at scale cheaply)
AI takes enormous amounts of energy - maybe it's gets more efficient as they improve software, maybe not, but there is only so much energy available and you can't build a power plant quickly. This will slow down the progress.
AI takes lots of chips, which are mostly made in Taiwan... that could definitely end up being a problem
Global war, along with destruction of infrastructure including power generation could definitely affect the trajectory of how fast AI is adopted, however, John also pointed out that war leads to heavy investment in leading edge technologies like AI.
John also had a graphic on the singularity as I recall, where the first decade after it occurred would be chaotic, and then it would become a utopia.
I think part of the human condition is to learn how to strive and work through things. It builds character, confidence and resiliency. A world where everything is easy, where a computer/AI can do everything better than a person can (so why bother trying?), is tragic. I know the things I've accomplished in life have come from determination, hard work and support from friends/family. I pause to think what I would be like if I hadn't had to work to get where I am... scary...
Well, we're due for a crisis war, a financial crisis - and a major natural disaster could also be in the cards... will we go another 5 years and reach the singularity where everything changes at a pace we can't imagine?? Or will be paused by outside events first?
Regards,
Jack
Replying to FullMoon's post on 2030 singfularity timing.
I can't recall if John guessed at 2030, or gave a range. Here's some thoughts I have though:
Moore's law simplified is that information processing doubles every 18 months. I've heard that's slowed down a bit lately as we reach physical limits of transistor size.
The singularity is where information processing changes completely and doubles at a much faster rate, creating a discontinuity in the processing curve
AI is now becoming a thing, I saw a video where an expert estimated AI was doubling how smart/intelligent it is every 6 months. Not sure how that's measured or how to square that with Moore's law. If AI intelligence is the same thing as information processing, than we may be entering a knuckle of the "singularity", where the rate of change isn't a single point, but a range of time.
AI at the moment is fast and smart at some things, but also misses some significant things. If you tried to run a company just off of just AI right now, it wouldn't work.
However, if intelligence of AI double every 6 months, it really won't be long until AI starts being smarter than the smartest person. 5 years is 10 doublings or 1000X smarter. As an engineer, I'm frankly astounded that AI can take problems I had in classes in college and solve them in seconds - where is would take me hour(s) in a team to get the same results. Where will we be in 5 years?? Think of all the expensive occupations that are really just about transferring knowledge.. Doctors, Teachers, Engineers, Accountants, Lawyers - will we all be obsolete? (hint the occupations with the most staying power are the ones that actually physically do something, like plumbing... until robots can be built at scale cheaply)
AI takes enormous amounts of energy - maybe it's gets more efficient as they improve software, maybe not, but there is only so much energy available and you can't build a power plant quickly. This will slow down the progress.
AI takes lots of chips, which are mostly made in Taiwan... that could definitely end up being a problem
Global war, along with destruction of infrastructure including power generation could definitely affect the trajectory of how fast AI is adopted, however, John also pointed out that war leads to heavy investment in leading edge technologies like AI.
John also had a graphic on the singularity as I recall, where the first decade after it occurred would be chaotic, and then it would become a utopia.
I think part of the human condition is to learn how to strive and work through things. It builds character, confidence and resiliency. A world where everything is easy, where a computer/AI can do everything better than a person can (so why bother trying?), is tragic. I know the things I've accomplished in life have come from determination, hard work and support from friends/family. I pause to think what I would be like if I hadn't had to work to get where I am... scary...
Well, we're due for a crisis war, a financial crisis - and a major natural disaster could also be in the cards... will we go another 5 years and reach the singularity where everything changes at a pace we can't imagine?? Or will be paused by outside events first?
Regards,
Jack