Generational Dynamics World View News

[Jack Edwards]

Full Moon:

People should be paying attention to Solar activity. The sun is currently showing activity that modern science hasn't monitored before. The Carrington event would have knocked us out just as well as an EMP. Maybe we'll forge a global war when global civilization is knocked back to pre-electrical time.

A caveat to that, we have seen in recent years an acceleration to the movement of the magnetic north pole, the south pole has moved off the Antarctic land mass and the strength of the magnetic field of the earth has decreased. We are also in the middle (peak) of a 11 year solar cycle. And we are seeing things we've not monitored before, like auroras in mid lattitudes - from what would previously be considered a non-major solar storm. It's also quite possible that recent power outages in Spain and elsewhere are the canary in the coal mine, we're not as protected from sun disturbances as we've been in the past and we're ever more dependent on our electrical infrastructure. A Carrington event could easily happen and besides a bunch of people dying from starvation, disease and a breakdown of social order.. we could also have a global war. And can't predict when a Carrington event will happen.

Cheers..
Jack

[Trevor]

From the beginning, Trump's wanted to focus on China. He thought he'd be able to get a peace deal and be worshipped as a great leader, but it hasn't worked out that way. He offered Putin 90% of what he wanted, only for him to change the terms and demand even more.

We've been slow to wake up to this threat. Putin isn't interested in a way out. He is on the path that he wants to be on and there's no realistic prospect of him being removed from power. His terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine and no matter how many Russians have been killed, this hasn't budged in the slightest. Even Trump's become critical of him.

The number of Russian losses we can confirm by name around 110,000 soldiers, more than what we sustained in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined; the actual number is likely far higher. Around one in thirty Russian military aged men have either died or are too badly wounded for further military service. While Ukraine's losses are lower in raw numbers, in terms of population, it's at least one in twenty Ukrainian men who have died or been badly injured. I've rooted for Ukraine since the beginning, but I don't think they're going to win. Russia's not nearly the juggernaut we thought, but they're likely to push through just through sheer weight. A lot of soldiers on both sides are in their 30s and 40s.

Cynical as this policy is, Europe would be best off using Ukraine as a meat shield to buy them time to strengthen their own forces so the same doesn't happen to them. Save for nations who share a border with Russia, it's mostly been talk. The public likes the idea of being able to defend themselves without American support in the abstract, but if it comes with the caveat of "What if you have to make small cuts to your social programs?", the answer is an overwhelming "NO". If they're serious about their own defense, it'd require a multi-year commitment with raising spending to 3% of GDP to repair 35 years of atrophy and I don't think most in Europe are at that point yet.

I haven't forgotten John's words: that in a crisis war, all thoughts of rationality are tossed aside.

[spottybrowncow]

News makes it look like Trump has finally realized that Putin is a madman - driven by ideology, not governed by reason, not interested in negotiation. For all we know, Putin has a terminal cancer diagnosis, and cares only about cementing his legacy as the restorer of Russia's former glory.
How will Trump deal with this? Negotiation has always been his strong point, is this new territory for him? Can Trump contain a madman with access to nuclear weapons and nothing to lose? That may be where we find ourselves now.

[Navigator]

Unfortunately, there is little to no room for negotiating with Putin, Xi, Kim in N Korea, or the Ayatolla's in Iran. These four are welded together in a new Central Powers that is bent on dethroning the US and dominating the world. Hopefully Trump is starting to figure this out.

The Chinese continue to make steady progress in preparations for war. The following video gives some good insight into Chinese preparation for invading Taiwan, and on their project to build a command and control complex that dwarfs the pentagon. (You will have to rewind to the beginning of the video - sorry, can't get the link to reset to the beginning)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GJJVAQNOWM

As Trevor pointed out, it is in Europe's, and everyone's interest (outside of the 4 megalomaniacs mentioned at the beginning of this post) to prop up Ukraine as long as possible. This may include a NATO sourced "force of volunteers". But, as I have pointed out before, Europe has never done a good job of doing what is in its collective interest.

Meanwhile, in the latest India/Pakistan aerial skirmish, the Pakistani's did ok with Chinese tech (that which was not given to them by the Russians was stolen from us).

[NoMansLand]

News makes it look like Trump has finally realized that Putin is a madman - driven by ideology, not governed by reason, not interested in negotiation.

I can't help but wonder how much control Putin has over his own actions. Sometimes when a persons choices seem insane it was the situation, not the person, that made the decision. Powerful men always have rivals seeking to take that power for themselves. That's why a purge and rebuild phase always follows a revolution. When the war with Ukraine started, I seem to remember multiple old guard officers being taken out. Most were derided as old, fat, ex-war horses that should have been in the pasture and not a combat zone. How much of Putin's power base with the military died with those old men? When he first came to power he took heat for shaping the upper military echelons to include more of his supporters to the detriment of military readiness. That was a long time ago. Between natural deaths, assassinations, and recently, war casualties, how many hard line allies does he have left to enforce any "unsanctioned" decisions?