Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

Iran's parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Supreme Leader likely will ratify by midnight Tehran time, or 4:30 PM EST.

Get gas NOW.

[DaKardii]

Per his Twitter:
https://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/19 ... 4017567860

What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran?

1. Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage.

2. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue.

3. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.

4. Israel is under attack, explosions are rocking the country, and people are panicking.

5. The US is now entangled in a new conflict, with prospects of a ground operation looming on the horizon.

6. Iran’s political regime has survived — and in all likelihood, has come out even stronger.

7. The people are rallying around the country’s spiritual leadership, including those who were previously indifferent or opposed to it.

8. Donald Trump, once hailed as ‘president of peace,’ has now pushed the US into another war.

9. The vast majority of countries around the world oppose the actions of Israel and the United States.

10. At this rate, Trump can forget about the Nobel Peace Prize — not even with how rigged it has become. What a way to kick things off, Mr. President. Congratulations!

[Navigator]

No surprise that the Iranians will move to close the Straights of Hormuz. This has always been their big card. It will require a land response, as in landing a division of US Marines. It will also require a large naval response, as part of the Iranian play will be to deploy mines. So the US will have to engage in minesweeping operations along most of the Persian Gulf (not just the Straits). Oh, and we will have to sink anything Iranian that floats (to prevent any kind of "bomb" boat threat to oil tankers. This could mean US Navy protected oil convoys out of the Gulf.

This should have all been foreseeable by military planners, and we should have plans in motion to handle these things. The problem is that it won't be quick. A large amount US Navy assets are going to have to be committed, and this will further dilute their Pacific Ocean presence (further emboldening China)

All of this would have had to have been done at some point. The Iranians would have just gotten stronger if we/Israel had not done this, and I cannot imagine how bad it would be for the Ayatollah to have a nuke. (The analogy is that Hitler would have to be fought at some point. If Britain/France had backed down over Poland, he would have eventually started WW2 from a much stronger position. In 1939, the German Navy had less than 40 operational U-boats. The German Army had fewer and, on average, less effective tanks than the French. The German plan had been to start the war in 1943. At that point, unmolested in a buildup, they may have been unstoppable.)

There is ZERO hope of negotiating with the fanatical Iranian clerics. The literally believe that the "12th Imam" is going to come back from "suspended animation" to save them, no matter what the odds, or how bad their military defeats are. The only way to handle this is to not only kill the head Ayatollah, but a LARGE number of the clerical leadership, and to forcibly remove them from positions of power.

Next point is that only Iranians can really effect regime/culture change in Iran. And, as has been pointed out, a counter-revolution would have to take place. And this can only happen if there is an organized and supplied military resistance. This also requires US land forces along the Iranian coast, so that rebels could be supplied with arms.

BTW, while I am glad that the BBC found a lot of anti-Regime voices in Iran. Hopefully they didn't just find English speakers. The 45 years of Islamic theocracy has certainly embittered the great majority of Iranians. I did read about a government mouthpiece trying to get a soccer crowd in Iran to chant "Death to Israel", and instead they started chanting "Death to Gaza and Hezbollah".

Meanwhile, disruption or even just viable threats to shipping in the Persian Gulf is going to cause MAJOR economic disruption around the globe.

AND, escalation of the conflict in Iran is going to send the Left in the US into hyper-drive. There are going to be large scale anti-war demonstrations. Trump Derangement Syndrome will escalate to anti-Vietnam war levels and beyond. At the same time, we will have a major economic downturn, which will also be blamed on Trump. It will look like the US is actually descending into a civil war. At that point, the Chinese will make their move.

[FullMoon]

Iran's parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Supreme Leader likely will ratify by midnight Tehran time, or 4:30 PM EST.

Get gas NOW.

I'm under the impression that EVERYTHING that powers modern life is underpinned by the energy from oil. Therefore get ANYTHING that you need because the price increases will be across the board. We'll soon find out the resiliency level of our own domestic oil production safety net. Since it's been targeted in both Russia and now Iran, might be something targeted here. Then real shortages is everything gets real

[FullMoon]

This also requires US land forces along the Iranian coast, so that rebels could be supplied with arms.

I've heard that there's already Israeli "commandos" on the ground ready for ground based operations. Just like they've already been doing apparently all over in operations widely considered quite successful. Since this really is their war with us just "helping out", there's no need to lead the way if they can do it themselves. I'm sure they can and why couldn't they.?

[FullMoon]

AND, escalation of the conflict in Iran is going to send the Left in the US into hyper-drive. There are going to be large scale anti-war demonstrations. Trump Derangement Syndrome will escalate to anti-Vietnam war levels and beyond. At the same time, we will have a major economic downturn, which will also be blamed on Trump. It will look like the US is actually descending into a civil war. At that point, the Chinese will make their move.

We shouldn't disregard the amount of anti-war sentiment ACROSS THE BOARD that can't be categorized as anti-Trump or anything other than simply anti-war. Trying to lump everyone together wouldn't be a wise decision. There's plenty of evidence to show that Trump supporters who EXPECTED no new wars as promised, might be upset that it was actually a lie. And the amount of lies recently might make them realize that lies are abundant and maybe all that they've believed.

[spottybrowncow]

Iran couldn't be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
China can't be allowed to take Taiwan.
I'm far from sure that Trump resisting either of these actions should count as him "getting us into a war."
After all, the only way to guarantee you won't get into a war is to guarantee that you're willing to be a slave.
Who's too stupid to understand this?
Not me.
God bless President Trump.

[FullMoon]

The rhetoric sounds like pre-Iraq war with WMB fear.
Everyone should be afraid of slavery. Let's remember that slavery comes from obedience to authority. If you advocate for obedience to authority, there you have it.
Navigator explicitly said we wouldn't fire the first shot in the war against Communist China. And there's currently about as much evidence presented in the Iran War as we got before the Iraq War. Let's not get too crazy with the bloodlust war fever talk. Emotional outbursts show a severing of intellectual consideration. Are we following our helpers or our slave owners? It's definitely something worth considering intellectually when the hot emotions calm down a bit.

[guest]

I think the Israelis have some pretty first-rate intelligence on Iran, likely due in no small part to the unpopularity of the regime with the masses.
I'm sure we considered that heavily before the recent engagement.

[FullMoon]

Trust me, I'm from the government and I'm here to help you.
Trust me. I'm from another government and I'm here to help you.
There once was a time when American's were smart enough to be skeptical of the professional liars in government.

I think the Israelis have some pretty first-rate intelligence on Iran, likely due in no small part to the unpopularity of the regime with the masses.
I'm sure we considered that heavily before the recent engagement.

It seems clear many locals were/are helping with the ongoing war. But the WMB card was played already and we learned that it was a ruse. This is regime change obviously and nukes are the best cover story for getting involved.
The underground missile cities now being used to demolish Israel is difficult to imagine. Even after we've destroyed them all and made Vietnam seem a nice memory, we'll be depleted, exhausted and extremely vulnerable.
We're not as overwhelming as we used to be and our collective adversaries are much stronger than ever before. We need a massive increase in leadership quality across the board if we hope to even have a chance. But hope is cheap and we're already looking at something like Navigator described in his book. and I was thinking Trump might be the Grey Champion. But that would mean we have a successful resolution of the crisis and start rebuilding a better future. Not looking like it at this rate.