Generational Dynamics World View News

[Bob Butler]

We're not as overwhelming as we used to be and our collective adversaries are much stronger than ever before. We need a massive increase in leadership quality across the board if we hope to even have a chance. But hope is cheap and we're already looking at something like Navigator described in his book. and I was thinking Trump might be the Grey Champion. But that would mean we have a successful resolution of the crisis and start rebuilding a better future. Not looking like it at this rate.

I’m assuming the Crisis will end around the end of the decade. There will be a high in which we implement the lessons learned in the recent Crisis. What then are the lessons on the table?

No more racism with or without war. No more war with or without racism. Sanity in avoiding economic collapse is necessary. Democratic and economic culture works better than militaristic and authoritarian.

These all make me dubious about Trump as the Grey Champion. Biden, Obama and other past Democrats won’t be in position to say they solved the crisis. The hypothetical 2028 democrat who fixes the above and reverses Trump might do it. I see Trump more as a Black anti champion, Putin and Israel friend, war starter, and bringing the crisis to a head. Compare him to Jefferson Davis or Hitler, major advocates on the stay-the-same conservative side.

I could sympathize with the depleted, exhausted vulnerable comment, except Russia, China and Israel are at least as bad. (Give Trump time. Many nations are rebuilding their economics and trade to exclude the current US.) I could see Iran closing the straits which allow much of the world’s oil to pass. I could anticipate September 11 style terrorist responses to the recent bombing. I could see Iran’s population becoming more supportive of their autocrats as a result of Trump’s actions. It is apt to get worse before it gets better, especially before the 2026 mid term elections.

But cyclical history suggests everyone getting tired of crisis and ready to move on to a high. The question is what would it take to resolve the problems, preventing them from happening again, and moving on to building infrastructure. Think a little less about the crisis and more about how to resolve it.

[RupertGeorge]

Unfortunately, I see zero hope in the short term of Iran becoming an ally of the west, let alone reproachment with Israel.

First off, let me congratulate the Israeli's on what seems to be a very successful initial strike on Iran. Such action has been needed for DECADES.

The US has technically been in a state of war with Iran since the Embassy takeover in 1978. The fanatical nut jobs (first Khomeini and now his son) will NEVER give up the path that they are pursuing as per their interpretation of Shia Islam. They are doing this to the utter detriment of their population, and while the majority of Iranians have no love of their regime, they are powerless to affect any kind of change. As was seen years ago during small scale demonstrations, any dissent is brutally and bloodily crushed by the quasi-militia forces that hold substantial power over the broad population.

The Iranians were NEVER going to give up their quest for atomic weapons. This had to be done. It should have been done to the North Koreans in the late 1980s or early 1990s, but no US President had the guts to do it. And now look at the nightmare in northern Asia that resulted.

It seems to me that the Trump administration understood this, and we were playing along with the Iranians in "negotiations" while the Israelis finished their plans and preparations. Israel had already done quite a bit of damage to the Iranian infrastructure last year. They should finish that job along with taking out any kind of technological industry or wherewithal that the Iranians have.

However, when a foreign country (Israel) bombs your country (Iran), the response is generally increased support for the local regime. This means that Iranians, out of their own national pride, will, at least in the short term, most likely rally to the flag of the Ayatollahs.

The next potential nightmare is that the Ayatollahs, out of desperation, take military measures to close the Straights of Hormuz, blocking oil tanker traffic in/out of the Persian Gulf. Yes, the Iranians are very dependent on their own oil revenue, but if they feel that their "back is against the wall", they may do this. This would mean that the US would become involved militarily, and would most likely require occupation of coastal areas (to stop the launching of anti ship missiles and deployment of mines into the Gulf. This is because the Gulf is so critical to the world economy.

Such a scenario would drag the US into yet another middle east war, which obviously would be highly unpopular in the US, and even more so in Europe. And if you think the anti-ICE riots are bad, just wait for this.

Iran is in a generational awakening era.

The Iran-Iraq War in 1980 (where chemical weapons were used on civilians) was Iran's last generational crisis war. Not enough time has passed since the end of that war. It takes roughly 80 years for the cycle to reset so Iran won't be facing another Crisis War/Fourth Turning until around 2060.

The most basic teachings of Generational Dynamics contradicts what you're saying here.

In dozens of articles in the last few years, I've stated and restated the core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people.

Since Iraq's last Crisis War was with Iran in 1980, the same analysis can be used towards Iran.

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... 040409.htm

What Iraqi Civil War?

Early in 2003, I predicted that there would be no popular uprising against the Americans, and that there would be no civil war. After the overthrow of Saddam, I said that an Iraqi civil war was impossible. Despite the constant near-hysteria of the politicians, journalists and high-priced analysts,

I've been right so far. Here's why. (09-Apr-04)Summary

Iraq is in a generational "awakening" period, like America in the 1960s. During the 60s, we had assassinations, riots, looting, radical rhetoric, and low-level violence, but no civil war. Similarly, a popular civil war in Iraq today is impossible, despite the warnings of politicians, journalists, and high-priced analysts

Why no civil war in Iraq?

The short answer is: Because only one generation has passed since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and a popular civil war is impossible so soon after a crisis war.

Let's take a moment to compare Iran today to America in the 1960s, because the equivalence is precise.

Iraq today is one generation past its last crisis war, the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

America in the 1960s was one generation past its last crisis war, World War II. You have to understand 1960s America if you want to understand Iraq today.

If you're reading this and you're under 65-70 years old, then you probably have no idea how horrible WW II was for most Americans. Rumors of German bombers on the east coast and Japanese bombers on the west coast abounded, and terrorized Americans formed watch groups to watch for incoming bombers. Body bags with American soldiers were coming in by the boatloads from Europe and the Pacific. Everyone was affected by the war, had lost friends and family in the war, and feared for the American way of life and even the nation's survival. If you were traumatized by 9/11, then imagine the 9/11 attacks ten times a day for a couple of years and you'll begin to understand World War II.

When WW II ended, those who survived vowed that nothing like that must ever be allowed to happen again. Society reorganized itself to fight the new menace, the Communists, who would have to be stopped before they were allowed to start World War III.

By the 1960s, kids born after WW II came of age, and that's when the American awakening began. There was a well-known "generation gap," as college kids rebelled against the austere rules imposed by those who had survived WW II.

Look what happened in America in the 60s and early 70s: President Kennedy was assassinated; Martin Luther King was assassinated; Robert Kennedy was assassinated; there was a series of "hot summers," with racial rebellions in many cities, the most well known being the Watts riots in L.A. in 1965; there were huge riots and demonstrations in Washington D.C., and in other large cities; many of these riots degenerated into violence.

In all, three different presidencies ended in ruin in one way or another: President Kennedy's by assassination, President Johnson by being forced not to run again; and President Nixon by forced resignation.

But there was NO CIVIL WAR.

This is EXACTLY what's happening in Iraq today.

The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s was a horrific crisis war, where even poison gas was used to kill people. Those who survived that war want no part of another one.

That's the context in which you have to understand the riots and demonstrations by Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moktada al-Sadr's private militia. Al-Sadr himself is 30 years old, and his followers are in their teens and 20s. These are kids with little or no personal memory of the 1980s war. They don't really care that much one way or the other about the American-led Coalition; they're just kids, and they're rebelling against their own parents more than anything else. In most cases, they have no strong convictions except to have fun.

That's why I've been saying for over a year that a popular civil war is impossible. There's no one who wants a war like that. The older generation will do anything to prevent such a war, and the younger generation really doesn't give a f--k. There's no fuel for a civil war.

I've looked at dozens, perhaps hundreds, of crisis wars throughout history, and there's never been a popular civil war just one generation past a crisis war. It's impossible.

Iran. Iran is also in a generational awakening period. Since 1999, there have been large pro-American college student demonstrations. Some analysts, apparently including some in the Bush administration, are advocating a policy of encouraging the students to overthrow the Iranian mullahs. Such a policy would almost certainly fail: There is no more chance of a civil war in Iran than there is in Iraq.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. From a generational dynamics perspective, Iran is in an "awakening" era, similar to the U.S. in the 1960s after WWII. Like the unrest led by young voices such as Martin Luther King Jr., Iran’s current protests reflect generational shifts, not a readiness for regime collapse or war. Real change comes later, once the post-war generation passes. You can see a brief context of that era here.

[Higgenbotham]

I was thinking Trump might be the Grey Champion. But that would mean we have a successful resolution of the crisis and start rebuilding a better future.

Trump can still be the Gray Champion. Just not the kind of Gray Champion who has appeared in America in the past. He is a Boomer. Strauss and Howe identified that as a possible problem in their book.

Mentioning Von Neumann reminded me that Roosevelt had his "Dollar a Year Men" and the immigrant Jewish Manhattan Project scientists, while Trump is in the process of assembling the likes of Elon Musk and the H1-B Indian "Tech Bros" around him. It's already been discussed that, while Trump fits the correct mold to be the Gray Champion (Obama did not), it's an open question as to whether he has the temperament and resources to successfully pull it off. Some quotes from Strauss and Howe were reproduced to support that notion.

Khanna, a House Democrat who represents Silicon Valley and a potential future presidential candidate, has known Musk for more than 10 years. In an interview, he called Musk an “an extraordinary entrepreneur” and said that he fits the mold of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “dollar-a-year men,” the corporate executives who were paid a symbolic salary of $1 annually to help the federal government mobilize for WWII.

Khanna said he has “exchanged texts” with Musk since Trump tapped him to head DOGE. He declined to “go into private exchanges” but said they have discussed “the places where we can collaborate.”

“We have a candid conversation. He also knows where I disagree with him,” he said. “We need to engage these technologists and builders to be part of our coalition, but without compromising our values.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/1 ... hip-000579

There are a lot of reasons to think that this is not an apt comparison. But first it would behoove me to further investigate who Roosevelt's dollar a year men were and what they accomplished. Also, Trump's recent appointments and support of the Indian "Tech Bros" and H1-B has caused a backlash from MAGA voters who feel they have been betrayed. I don't see that anybody has attempted to compare the Indian "Tech Bros" to the eminent Jewish Manhattan Project scientists, but there's still plenty of time for that. There are a lot of reasons to think that, in the event that comparison is attempted, it is not apt either.

As the next Gray Champion, the Boom Generation will lead at a time of maximum danger—and opportunity. From here on, Boomers will face the unfamiliar challenge of self-restraint. Having grown up feeling that G.I.s could always step in and fix everything if trouble arose, Boomers have thus far pursued their crusades with a careless intensity. In the Fourth Turning, G.I.s will no longer be around as a backstop, and the young Millennials will follow the Gray Champion off a cliff. If Boomers make a wrong choice, history will be unforgiving.