Generational Dynamics World View News

[Trevor]

We overestimated Russia's military strength, but underestimated the price they (or Putin) were willing to pay to accomplish these goals. Estimates are around 250,000 dead Russians over the past 3.5 years, and over 3,500 tanks destroyed, with independent verification. I've noticed over the last three-four months, vehicle losses have plummeted, alongside reports of seeing them on the battlefield. I expect they've exhausted their Soviet-era reserves and have to rely on whatever their manufacturing can produce. They've had far more luck mass producing artillery shells and drones than tanks/aircraft/IFVs. Over 90% of their assaults are Shahed drones, not ballistic missiles.

While their advances are still tiny, they're starting to accelerate. It's been around 1,900 square miles, about the equivalent of what they took in 2024, twice what they seized in 2023. A war of attrition is far from ideal, but Russia's never been averse to heavy losses. It's a cold-blooded calculation: they can replace them to a greater degree than Ukraine. It's not a guarantee it'll work, but even in the First World War, long attrition did eventually lead to a breakthrough.

Younger Ukrainians also have the option of fleeing to neighboring countries. It's against the law, but if things get desperate enough, they're unlikely to care. I still see it as more likely Ukraine will collapse than Russia, though I don't completely rule the latter out. A significant percentage of soldiers on both sides are in their 40s.

No, we won't rebuild our production to what it's going to need when war breaks out, but no one is ever prepared for a large-scale conflict. In 1914, all sides ran out of artillery within 3-4 months, forcing them to begin a crash production. However, it would have been worse for us in Japan had attacked in 1940, rather than 1941, so any preparation we make now will make things easier.

China's the world's assembly line, but unlike the United States in WWII, doesn't have the same innovation. Much of what they have managed has come from stealing data and with their electronics, crucial roles are filled by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all American allies. The CCP would have been better off if the Ukraine invasion hadn't happened, forcing us to realize how unprepared we were for a long conflict, but that could add additional pressure on them to act quickly.

[Navigator]

China's Achille's heel has always been, and still is, food.

Once a war starts, their agricultural imports will mostly be cut off and they will slowly start to starve. In the end, this would probably bring about the internal revolution necessary to overthrow the CCP.

Same thing brought down the Kaiser and Germany in WW1.

The unfortunate thing is that this takes at least a couple of years to play out.

[Trevor]

The latest news is that Russia's managed a breakthrough near Pokrovsk, surging almost twenty kilometers in a single day, moving more rapidly than anything we've seen since the start of the war. It's too early to say whether this means a collapse of the Ukrainian front, but this doesn't look good. Even in the First World War, a breakthrough was eventually achieved after long periods of stasis. Ukraine's been suffering a manpower shortage for some time, with commanders saying they need at least another 100,000 troops on the frontline to plug the gap.

When it comes to Europe, so long as there's even a remote hope of America taking the lead, they're not going to do what's necessary to rebuild their military. Poland, the Baltics, and Finland are the only exceptions. Even Eastern Europe hasn't moved at the necessary speed, although unlike Western Europe, they've at least done something.

At this point, Putin's got no reason to stop. Even losing a quarter of a million Russians won't matter if they manage to consume Ukraine, conscript anyone unable to flee as cannon fodder. What I wonder is whether this will motivate NATO and especially Trump to act. In the Second World War, we didn't begin rebuilding our military, expecting a repeat of WWI, only France fell in six weeks.