Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... bt-issues/

July 22, 2011, 3:02 PM ET Soros Fund’s Cash Stash Up To 75%; Hedgies Ponder Global Risks
Reports are surfacing that Soros Fund Management’s $25.5 billion Quantum Endowment Fund has moved to a 75% cash position. In mid-June the fund’s lead manager, Keith Anderson, told his portfolio managers to pull back. The fund’s losses had surpassed 6% on the year, according to Bloomberg, citing two people familiar with the situation.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/ ... MQ20110721

Exclusive: Paulson says bets were too aggressive
By Svea Herbst-Bayliss

NEW YORK | Thu Jul 21, 2011 3:50pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A humbled John Paulson told investors on Thursday he was "too aggressive" with some of the stock bets in his flagship funds and he is trimming back some of his riskiest holdings.

The hedge fund manager told clients in a conference call that he was dialing back the risk by moving away from bank holdings with heavy mortgage exposure.

The investor call came after a tumultuous first half of the year for Paulson, whose flagship Paulson Advantage fund lost about 12 percent. A related fund called Advantage Plus was off 18 percent.
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Sat Jul 23, 2011 10:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

The issue of rationality in society. Max Weber's idea of an all-embracing rationality, and instead emphasize that each life area had its own distinct rationality. By this rationality the cardinal values of the language-produced life areas could be constructed: Critical terms of knowledge, riches, order, beauty, sacredness, and virtue. Thereby the division of labor between the creators, preservers, conveyors and receivers of each cardinal value could also be elaborated. Talcott Parsons and Edward Shils (1951. As scholars and translators they had delved deeply into Weber’s work. In opposition to Weber, they assumed that the whole of society and its various subgroups were systems.
They identified four elements that eventually became known as "AGIL" as constituent elements of all parts of society as well as of society as a whole.
The “A” stands for adaptation. It is the focus of any economic organization. The “G” stands for goal attainment. This is the focus of the political organization of societies. The “I” stands for integration of economic, political and other relatively independent societal units into a whole that can maintain its boundaries. The “L” stands for latency, the maintenance of the patterns of a society and its parts. The latter they located in the expressive symbolism of society such as religious ritual, art, recreation, and in the adherence to common values. According to Parsons and Shils, all four, A, G, I, and L, enter into any and all concrete social phenomena in various forms and proportions. The total society has its AGIL and so does all its parts. For example, a household has its A in the form of earning money and buying essentials of housing, food, and clothing. Its G appears in the form of its rules for childrearing and decisions about common property. The I in the household takes the form of fences and admission restrictions for outsiders and strangers. Its L takes the form of an honored name and family rituals.
Unlike Weber's terms, AGIL are more than abstract names of actions or clusters of actions. AGIL is a system, and “A”, “G”, “I”, and “L” are thus assumed to be interrelated in predictable ways.
To say that AGIL is a system with all the properties of a system is not an innocent proposition that can be accepted in advance of proof. There is danger in borrowing the concept “system” from biological science and engineering. The danger was once identified when social science borrowed the term “force” from physics (Zetterberg 1965, pp 38-40)

We all heard the term deficits do not matter and whom it was. Correlation to creative destruction to fiat endogeniety we already covered in the forums. The inertia is lightning quick movement of Capital and labor from the bent of mind of many. Guises already we know about in the circle on the Hill as we are.
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/Newsroom/NewsR ... CON_024937 <------------ forum readers know this connection on the Hill
http://www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscent ... 021008.ppt
Distilled further we have this.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/new ... theory.asp
To backwardation to premise unravels to this effect warning, and yes I read the book and passed it on.
http://dir.salon.com/books/review/2004/07/21/peterson/
The next step back is no random walk in the bent of mind to the control burn I mention earlier.
Joseph Schumpeter, particularly in his book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, first published in 1942. In it, Schumpeter popularized and used the term to describe the process of transformation that accompanies radical innovation. In Schumpeter's vision of capitalism, innovative entry by entrepreneurs was the force that sustained long-term economic growth, even as it destroyed the value of established companies and laborers that enjoyed some degree of monopoly power derived from previous technological, organizational, regulatory, and economic paradigms. Schumpeter also elaborated the concept, making it central to his economic theory. The most likely source can be found in his 1939 book Business Cycles. Here the Western world first learned about Nikolai Kondratieff and his long-wave cycle. These cycles, Schumpeter believed, were caused by innovations.
Today as we are In the earlier work of Marx, however, the idea of creative destruction or annihilation (German: Vernichtung) implies not only that capitalism destroys and reconfigures previous economic orders, but also that it must ceaselessly devalue existing wealth (whether through war, dereliction, or regular and periodic economic crises) in order to clear the ground for the creation of new wealth.
As we know who said never let a crisis go to waste.

Vin "This hording of cash and low money multiplier is like the tide going out before a tsunami hits. It should not make you happy and comfortable."I hope this clarify's a few of my thought to the control burn I mentioned previously in the forums. I convey to being unbraided given a poor effort on my part to clarify a contextual thought in a hectic World and its current levity to what they are choosing as policy I convey. Will they print, yea i think they will as there effort as conveyed a control burn as history conveys. I just work for a Company that finds solutions.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 3630#p9206

Nothing new under the Sun. http://www.hacer.org/pdf/Hazlitt00.pdf

Carl Johan Ljungberg, 1997. Vårt land: den svenska socialstaten, City University Press, Stockholm.
OLD1953
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:16 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by OLD1953 »

Well, yes but it's basic to generational dynamics that society is only rational periodically. Rationality is enforced by a crisis (or else the social structure decays and the nation collapses) after which the succeeding generations become more irrational and less cooperative until the situation gets bad enough to force rational behavior again. So anything assuming rational behavior in markets is only correct part of the time.

Bluntly, most people prefer to be irrational as often as possible. And most people love overreaction to everything, especially if they think they aren't paying for it.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
The following polarity reversals can be observed on the 14 month lag:

January 15, 2010 (HIGH) and March 16, 2011 (LOW)
February 5, 2010 (LOW) and April 6, 2011 (HIGH)
February 27, 2010 (LOW) and May 2, 2011 (HIGH)
April 15, 2010 (HIGH) and June 16, 2011 (LOW)
May 6, 2010 (FLASH DOWNCRASH) and July 7, 2011 (FLASH UPCRASH)

Looking out to the future, I am only posting this for long time readers of this forum (and hopefully nobody else) because I think this inverse correlation will soon end anyway. In other words, whereas May 25, 2010 was a lower low on the charts (below the flash crash low) I do not necessarily expect that July 25, 2011 will follow this correlation and be a higher high. My best guess as posted last weekend is that the markets are going to crash soon and the crash may well start to correlate again on the 14 month basis. In other words, I expect a much lower low could be reached on or around July 25, 2011. As usual, I would say that nobody knows what will happen.
Had the inverse correlation held, the stock market would be making a higher high today (since May 25, 2010 was a lower low).

If the US follows Japan, the demographics will begin to take hold soon.

From an e-mail I wrote last week:
I just punched this through a date calculator.

The Nikkei made an important high on June 26, 1996.

The 11 year demographic lag (peak birth years 1948 in Japan and 1959 in the US - on average) for the US would correlate to the high on October 11, 2007.

Those highs are 4124 days apart.

The last important high for the Nikkei before it fell into the 2003 hole was April 12, 2000.

Adding 4124 days to April 12, 2000 is July 28, 2011.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Different idea on Japan vs US here.

http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote:Different idea on Japan vs US here.

http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/
Looks interesting. I just ordered a used copy for $1.84 plus 3.99 shipping.
(They really get you on the shipping.)

John
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I had posted some quotes from The Emergence of Lincoln about the Panic of 1857.

The US is now half an Anglo Saxon country and half something else. The current budget and debt ceiling impasse is a great illustration of this.

Before the financial problems started, in my opinion, the US voters got the silly idea that if they elected a man who is half Anglo Saxon and half something else that this would somehow unite the country. You know, we've read a lot over the past few years about how Obama is a uniter and he is like Lincoln. I've always thought Obama is more like James Buchanan. The US is festering under lack of leadership and becoming more divided. As far as the Tea Party or the right wingers or whatever you want to call them, I think they still look at the US as being their country. There will be no compromise. They want the whole country. If they can't have the whole country, I don't believe they realize this yet, but my opinion is they'll split it up and take half of it.

I don't believe any of this was evident to Wall Street until maybe today they have an inkling. But as it becomes more evident, I believe Wall Street will panic hard and the collapse of 2008 might look like a warmup. The prospect of a divided country and a govenment that is unable to subsidize the big defense contractors and other corporations that feed at the public trough is daunting. The stock index is probably worth between zero and some very small number without the subsidies and the ability of armies of lobbyists to manipulate the laws in their favor.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
jusme
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by jusme »

I don't think Obama is Dem or Rep.He is just the elite puppet.He is a 'Wall Street'er ' through and through.But I agree with you as to how he was preceived.

You can't be one of "US and one of them simutaniusly" !

He wouldn't be there if he was ever for the people.

And just like the past Administration, he's using 'fear ' to scare us into believing their going to do the right thing for our best interest?

I heard it stated the other day that if the so called Terrorist were out to really ruin us on 911 they would have wiped out Wall Street ?

But World Trade 7 went down that day,it is believed not exactly as planned? And still for reasons that can't be explained logically ?

Inside that building was all the investigative info. on cases of fraud and insider trading and God only knows what else?

And don't forget the gold ,it was never found ? The day before Rumsfeld announced 9 million was"missing" from the Pentigon ?

And who does Obama fill his Administration with, "The Banksters " !

Who did he save right out the gate,To big to fail,big business and Wall Street.

What he gave the "to Big to fail and big business" is the crows comming home to roost now. When asked how he felt that the CEO's received big bonus's.

He replied "they deserved it ". Are you kidding me !

They deserved then and still do, to be tried in a court of law.

There is not a 'Party ' division in this country any longer.

It's the elite V us.

Fifty years ago the 1% were taxed at 53%.

Now we are at somewhere @28% and they are @ somewhere like 18%
(Higgie knows the numbers better than I).

The end game will be same as usual,we get less and less,they get more.

It is said "we vote our fears not our hopes ".

I don't believe it possible if we tried to vote our hopes.

We can't afford them any more .

jusme
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7983
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

The money is gone and the fault lines are set up.


Corporations versus We The People.

Domestic Interests versus International Interests.

Whites versus Non Whites and Citizens versus Non Citizens.


GE is moving executives to China (announced today). Will anybody stop them? Will anybody make GE pay corporate income taxes or will they continue to pay nothing?

Will the Chinese get their interest payments on the bonds? Or will Americans lose entitlement payments as the Chinese collect interest on their bonds?

Will the US close the borders and ship the illegals back home? Will the US drop the H1B visa program and force the high tech industry to hire Americans? Will violence erupt if they don't?


Does Obama have a clue???
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
jusme
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by jusme »

Hig

Does telling American's "He " needs "Our" help and to call /mail Congress answer you're guestion ? :lol:

jusme
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 1 guest