I just went 100% short for the first time in about a year. All my cycles are spent so I am groping in the dark. You might remember a month or two back March 6 was mentioned as logical average and looking back at this page you mentioned March also. A lot of the various speculations that were made are matched by the dates that the various indices turned over as Hussman notes below. http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... =2&p=22232aedens wrote:The real American shitstorm hasn't even started yet...
I think this week Hussman has finally identified what can really put the top in on this market. The log periodic equation, which didn't really fit, wasn't it but these things can be. Also the S&P made a higher high on Friday but the other indices didn't. The Nasdaq sold off hard (down 42 to 2 points below the key level I had mentioned) which is indicative of tops.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140324.htmAs for non-confirmations, we observe, for example, that the Dow Utilities peaked on April 30, the Nikkei peaked on December 30, the Dow Industrials peaked on December 31, the Dow Euro Stoxx 50 Index peaked on January 15, the German DAX peaked on January 17, the London FTSE peaked on February 24, Russell 2000 peaked on March 4, the Nasdaq 100 peaked on March 5, the NYSE Composite peaked on March 6, the S&P 500 and Dow Transports peaked on March 7. All of these peaks may be breached, of course, but we’ve always noted that a loss of uniformity tends to precede major market declines, and this sort of action is of particular concern in the context of an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield syndrome.
For more on such considerations, see the July 30, 2007 weekly comment Market Internals Go Negative. That comment also includes a discussion of an interesting technical warning - a double top in the Coppock Guide (sometimes called a “killer wave”) – which we observed at the 2007 peak and see again at present, for the first time since that 2007 instance.
It's been my guess for a long time that the homebuilders might need to get smashed before this beast can be dead. It appears that happened Friday...