Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Full Moon:

People should be paying attention to Solar activity. The sun is currently showing activity that modern science hasn't monitored before. The Carrington event would have knocked us out just as well as an EMP. Maybe we'll forge a global war when global civilization is knocked back to pre-electrical time.

A caveat to that, we have seen in recent years an acceleration to the movement of the magnetic north pole, the south pole has moved off the Antarctic land mass and the strength of the magnetic field of the earth has decreased. We are also in the middle (peak) of a 11 year solar cycle. And we are seeing things we've not monitored before, like auroras in mid lattitudes - from what would previously be considered a non-major solar storm. It's also quite possible that recent power outages in Spain and elsewhere are the canary in the coal mine, we're not as protected from sun disturbances as we've been in the past and we're ever more dependent on our electrical infrastructure. A Carrington event could easily happen and besides a bunch of people dying from starvation, disease and a breakdown of social order.. we could also have a global war. And can't predict when a Carrington event will happen.

Cheers..
Jack

From the beginning, Trump's wanted to focus on China. He thought he'd be able to get a peace deal and be worshipped as a great leader, but it hasn't worked out that way. He offered Putin 90% of what he wanted, only for him to change the terms and demand even more.

We've been slow to wake up to this threat. Putin isn't interested in a way out. He is on the path that he wants to be on and there's no realistic prospect of him being removed from power. His terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine and no matter how many Russians have been killed, this hasn't budged in the slightest. Even Trump's become critical of him.

The number of Russian losses we can confirm by name around 110,000 soldiers, more than what we sustained in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined; the actual number is likely far higher. Around one in thirty Russian military aged men have either died or are too badly wounded for further military service. While Ukraine's losses are lower in raw numbers, in terms of population, it's at least one in twenty Ukrainian men who have died or been badly injured. I've rooted for Ukraine since the beginning, but I don't think they're going to win. Russia's not nearly the juggernaut we thought, but they're likely to push through just through sheer weight. A lot of soldiers on both sides are in their 30s and 40s.

Cynical as this policy is, Europe would be best off using Ukraine as a meat shield to buy them time to strengthen their own forces so the same doesn't happen to them. Save for nations who share a border with Russia, it's mostly been talk. The public likes the idea of being able to defend themselves without American support in the abstract, but if it comes with the caveat of "What if you have to make small cuts to your social programs?", the answer is an overwhelming "NO". If they're serious about their own defense, it'd require a multi-year commitment with raising spending to 3% of GDP to repair 35 years of atrophy and I don't think most in Europe are at that point yet.

I haven't forgotten John's words: that in a crisis war, all thoughts of rationality are tossed aside.