Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Near the end of the rally, the really big numbers start coming out as the bulls start feeling invincible. I'm seeing a lot of them in the past few days. An example where I'm looking for an approximate repeat. Same user days before the February top and today.

B****ard

Posted 05 February 2020 - 03:55 PM

Liquidity continues to flow into the system, and it is very possible an extended rally towards 3700 SPX before any real correction
Simply I can't short this market right now
This rally should last till the end of March or early April

B****ard

Posted Today, 11:22 AM

SPX is going into new highs.
I think there will be an attempt to hit 3500/3530 on SPX

34xx is pivot imo as before dxy to fx as commodity thought maps in august spx

If higher tomorrow, I'll attempt to add two based on it being the 11th. If I add one and it runs away to the upside, I'll hold one extra, but not two.

The next time frame I'm looking at for a possible add would be near August 19 if a high.

Also, it would be worthwhile to look at the 1937 March high and August secondary high.

I think we're very close.

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:24 pm Also, it would be worthwhile to look at the 1937 March high and August secondary high.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Jul 07, 2012 10:26 pm ...on August 14, 1937, the Dow Jones Industrials reached another secondary peak near the March 1937 recovery high, before crashing one more time in late 1937 and on into early 1938.

Chain-weighted indexes have provided a more accurate picture of the current economic recovery than fixed-weighted indexes.
Chain-Weighted CPI: An alternative measurement for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that considers product substitutions
made by consumers and other changes in their spending habits.
Willful blindness of risk.

An S&P 500 high for the year during the worse economic times in at least 80 years. Powell must be so proud of his bubble blowing abilities.

vincecate wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:01 am An S&P 500 high for the year during the worse economic times in at least 80 years. Powell must be so proud of his bubble blowing abilities.

I think Powell forgot a few historical points when he blew this bubble. I would recommend to him that he work on getting his disguise as a woman ready for when he needs to leave the country. Also, he should work on his gambling skills ahead of time so he doesn't end up impoverished.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2013 3:15 pm

Although traditionally considered a bubble, the Mississippi Bubble wasn’t actually a bubble, in a precise technical sense. A bubble is primarily caused by widespread mania and speculation, followed by a brutal collapse in asset values. In contrast, the Mississippi Bubble was the result of failed monetary policies that caused excessive money supply growth and inflation.

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/mississippi-bubble/

I've always found these 2 themes of the Mississippi Bubble interesting:

In 1705, Law published an academic paper in which he argued against the use of precious-metal backed currency in favor of “paper” or fiat currency, claiming that the use of fiat currency would stimulate commerce.

Soon after (the bubble burst), John Law escaped France, disguised as a woman for his own safety, and spent the rest of his life as an impoverished gambler in various parts of Europe.

What has Powell repeatedly told us? That the use of fiat currency would help to meet the Fed's mandate of full employment.

Added one more lot short. I'll be holding this regardless because it's the 11th of the month.

PM's are getting hammered. Are they done? Assuming it's going to be soon regardless, what's a reasonable range for them to retrace to?
How to ensure rent collection when the governor says they don't have to pay? Any thoughts before a new tenant moves in? Besides checking their employment and judging it relatively safe all things considered.