Over the short term, we can get a decent to big move down nominally, but it will bounce back, because they are locked into making sure they get capital gains and retain the same political power over the current demographics. Remember what happened in 2020?vincecate wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2025 4:05 pmSo you don't think that in nominal terms we will get a stock market crash? That they will devalue the dollar fast enough that the S&P500 number does not go down?Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2025 3:30 pm I've told you, it's managed and the new liquidity as well as Fed maneuvers will maintain the price. Of course, that doesn't mean purchasing power is retained. Quite the contrary. This is yet another good example of what I've been telling you all for years, that you apparently won't entertain.
If they devalue the dollar by a factor of 2 in a short time then inflation is out of control. The price of oil and everything else will double. So everyone gets out of bonds and the Fed has to buy all the bonds with newly printed money. So you get a death spiral: the faster the fed prints the faster people sell their bonds, the faster people sell their bonds the faster the Fed prints. Very soon you have $37 trillion in newly printed cash. The cash is worthless.
The bond market is much larger than the stock market. I think the Fed would rather see stocks crash than see the bond market and dollar destroyed.
So Anguilla is having an election next week. Some politicians think taking the operation of .ai and giving it to a foreign company was a bad move. So the politician that did it attacked me to justify this move (was moved Jan 15 from me to Identity Digital). I responded with a video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTOxTY2t-A4
The play is to keep extending as long as you can, and hope that AI or robot productivity replaces the loss in GDP due to the massive social and cultural destruction you've caused (men checking out and women not actually being productive, which also leads to less people, another part of the plan). The reason they can do it is why Japan was able to, and went even higher than people thought possible at 150% debt to GDP. Notice that they aren't even the world reserve, so obviously the US can pull it off. One of the general problems with this site is that just like everything else in the internet and media world (believe me, I had to come to understand this as well over time), any single person thinks that things will happen much fast than they actually play out. If you open yourself to this possibility, you'll see it screaming at you on this site, and if you don't, you're not paying attention. It's been about 5 years since I posted and you can go back and check what guys were saying in the early 2010s.
Now, do I think that there will be a fairly big drawdown next year? Yes. But they'll print it up past that to new ATHs.