Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:37 pm Here are the two major Generational Dynamics predictions:

• World War III, most likely with China.
• Global financial crisis.

You do not have to "believe" in Generational Dynamics or any religion
to consider these predictions valid.

There were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional
wars on several continents, and there have been massive wars in every
region in every century for millennia. So it's 100% certain that
there will be multiple crisis wars in this century.

If you don't believe that, then you must believe in your own religion
-- that the problem of war has been "solved." Maybe you'd be like the
believers in the historial fantasy in 1929 when the US led the world
in signing the Kellogg-Briand Pact, which outlawed war and made war
illegal. Frank Kellogg earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 1929 for his
work on the Peace Pact. Maybe Xi Jinping is looking forward to
getting his own Nobel Peace Prize.

It's like "La Belle Époque." There were two world wars in the last
century, plus massive wars on every continent, and there have been
massive wars on every continent in every century for millennia, but
everyone believes their own fantasies and nobody believes that war is
even possible until it starts. Then they ruefully wish that they had
taken even some simple steps to prepare.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-belle-epo ... ge-1221300

So the prediction of multiple world wars and crisis wars does not
require any religious belief. It is based entirely on millennia of
history, and the "religious" belief would be that there would be no
world wars.

The prediction of a global financial crisis is, once again, based on
millennia of history. You don't have to believe in any religion to
recognize a series of international bubbles and financial crises that
occurred at regular intervals: the 1637 Tulipomania bubble, the South
Sea bubble of the 1710s-20s, the bankruptcy of the French monarchy in
the 1789, the Panic of 1857, and the 1929 Wall Street crash. We're now
overdue for the next one. If you don't like those examples, there are
plenty of other examples that you can research in every country in
every century throughout history.

Once again, for you to believe that there won't be a global financial
crisis then you'd have to have a "religious" belief that global
interlocking debt can increase indefinitely. There actually is a
religion that holds this belief. That religion is called Modern
Monetary Theory (MMT), which says that an infinite amount of money can
be printed and debt can be accumulated, and it will never have to be
paid back. This is a great religion, but it has no basis in reality,
or in history.

However, I would like to commend "tim", whose predictions have been
consistent with history and reality.

As we've said many, many times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, if you go back through history, there are many small or regional recessions. But since the 1600s there have been only five major international financial crises: the 1637 Tulipomania bubble, the South Sea bubble of the 1710s-20s, the bankruptcy of the French monarchy in the 1789, the Panic of 1857, and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

These are called "generational crashes" because they occur every 70-80 years, just as the generation of people who lived through the last one have all disappeared, and the younger generations have resumed the same dangerous credit securitization practices that led to the previous generational crash. After each of these generational crashes, the survivors impose new rules or laws to make sure that it never happens again. As soon as those survivors are dead, the new generations ignore the rules, thinking that they're just for "old people," and a new generational crash occurs.

I've described a generational crash as an elemental force of nature, like a tsunami. There will be millions or even tens of millions of Boomers and Generation-Xers in countries around the world, never having seen anything like this before, and not having believed it was even possible, suddenly in a state of total mass panic, trying to sell all at once. It's impossible to predict the date when that will happen, but it's going to happen with absolute certainty.

A generational crash is an elemental force of nature, like a tsunami. You'll have millions or even tens of millions of Boomers and Generation-Xers in countries around the world, never having seen anything like this before, and in a state of total mass panic, trying to sell all at once. Computer systems will crash or will be clogged for hours (as has already happened to some systems, incidentally, on February 28), or perhaps even for a day or two. People who had hoped to get out just as the collapse is occurring will be totally screwed, and will lose everything. Brokers and other institutions will go bankrupt. People who went short hoping to make a fortune will find that their brokers' escrow accounts are gone, and they'll be totally screwed, and will lose everything.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Apr 11, 2025 11:57 am I don't know Generational Dynamics and Fourth Turning theory as well as I should. But I think what the theory says is there are dates when people wake up out of their slumber and realize the world has changed.

John wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:37 pm Once again, for you to believe that there won't be a global financial
crisis then you'd have to have a "religious" belief that global
interlocking debt can increase indefinitely. There actually is a
religion that holds this belief. That religion is called Modern
Monetary Theory (MMT), which says that an infinite amount of money can
be printed and debt can be accumulated, and it will never have to be
paid back. This is a great religion, but it has no basis in reality,
or in history.

However, I would like to commend "tim", whose predictions have been
consistent with history and reality.

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Mar 17, 2025 1:12 pm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN#

The second graph shows the log of the ratio of debt to GDP. Hopefully that's a better way to show the magnitude of the debt.

April 16, 2025 by Wale Gbadebo

Global hunt begins as Interpol backs EFCC probe into CBEX scam

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has launched a comprehensive investigation into an alleged N1.3 trillion cryptocurrency fraud connected to the now-defunct digital investment platform, CryptoBank Exchange (CBEX).

According to the EFCC, the commission is collaborating with the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL) to trace local and international suspects involved in the massive scam.

The Cool Down
Scientists make incredible breakthrough after studying human urine — here's how it could transform the way we grow food
Rick Kazmer
Sun, April 20, 2025 at 6:30 AM CDT3 min read

Scientists make incredible breakthrough after studying human urine — here's how it could transform the way we grow food

A report from New Scientist will give you something to think about during your next bathroom break.

That's because experts are finding that human urine aged in the sun for a couple of months can be an effective fertilizer and pesticide.

aeden wrote: Fri Apr 18, 2025 12:32 pm That crypto sector makes as much sense as the two cult halfwits demsheviks that are being funding with private planes for the cheerful and useful idiots.