Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

What series of notes are you considering in bonds.
I have until 11/15/22 to decide.

The notes carry the theta burn as we sold into pain.
Noted last August into the September.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1/ if/then 100 more basis points.

Anyways the true lunatics other than the beach bum cult. https://rairfoundation.com/the-real-glo ... es-attali/

BOTH sides are being played.
No winners as we knew.

INFLATION report again tomorrow. There will be a market reaction either up or down and it may not be a rational reaction.
If the Cleveland Fed is correct Core inflation in August at 6.25% will be higher than July, and September is forecast to be higher again on Core inflation.
I don't think there is any way of fixing inflation except by a country entering recession. Not that I am aware of anyway.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:40 pm

aeden wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:26 pm Market bounced off support.
H and myself will short maybe after a fill the gap up or maybe not.

I went 4% short Friday at 4055. Put 29% in one year bills paying 3.57% last week and the rest is in cash waiting to short more.

I am wondering where the market will turn. As I write it seems firmly upward. I get the impression that its not the professionals who are leading the trading at present

richard5za wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:02 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:40 pm

aeden wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:26 pm Market bounced off support.
H and myself will short maybe after a fill the gap up or maybe not.

I went 4% short Friday at 4055. Put 29% in one year bills paying 3.57% last week and the rest is in cash waiting to short more.

I am wondering where the market will turn. As I write it seems firmly upward. I get the impression that its not the professionals who are leading the trading at present

Went short another 4% of my account just now with the S&P up 44. I thought the market would be down this morning.

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:27 am

richard5za wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:02 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:40 pm

I went 4% short Friday at 4055. Put 29% in one year bills paying 3.57% last week and the rest is in cash waiting to short more.

I am wondering where the market will turn. As I write it seems firmly upward. I get the impression that its not the professionals who are leading the trading at present

Went short another 4% of my account just now with the S&P up 44. I thought the market would be down this morning.

All the markets are flying upwards: DAX, FTSE 100, CAC 40, etc

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:27 am

richard5za wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:02 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:40 pm

I went 4% short Friday at 4055. Put 29% in one year bills paying 3.57% last week and the rest is in cash waiting to short more.

I am wondering where the market will turn. As I write it seems firmly upward. I get the impression that its not the professionals who are leading the trading at present

Went short another 4% of my account just now with the S&P up 44. I thought the market would be down this morning.

I see that S&P is coming off a bit: You may have just called it right. Very good luck, Higg.

richard5za wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 9:58 am INFLATION report again tomorrow. There will be a market reaction either up or down and it may not be a rational reaction.
If the Cleveland Fed is correct Core inflation in August at 6.25% will be higher than July, and September is forecast to be higher again on Core inflation.
I don't think there is any way of fixing inflation except by a country entering recession. Not that I am aware of anyway.

Stopping spending will. Taxing more will. Although I'd guess you'd argue these might go hand in hand with recession and/or the cause of one.

We could get a blow off top for a while and then crash. I think Martin Armstrong's prediction that 2023 will be chaos is accurate. And it all likely will begin in November of this year.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SPY&p=d&tas=0
Daily is not an issue until spx 423 then we sweep the PE facts heading into
the real deal of the march sweeps. General Omar Bradley famously said: “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”

The gap must be filled up then we may increase the theta map on short carry into march.
As we consider another 100 basis points on the 10 year then we can
toss on more lighter fluid on the inflation disease they indeed caused past the oct27 window.
We have no clue and the lightswitch is still a fact on if/then what they truly did.
Just like the comment what problem as millions ran in over the border. Regime reprobates.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=kCm59g7r
Whale tails are rather hard to navigate in small ships heading into this maelstrom.

richard5za wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 11:09 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:27 am

richard5za wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:02 am I am wondering where the market will turn. As I write it seems firmly upward. I get the impression that its not the professionals who are leading the trading at present

Went short another 4% of my account just now with the S&P up 44. I thought the market would be down this morning.

I see that S&P is coming off a bit: You may have just called it right. Very good luck, Higg.

I'm 13% short now. But I did get several short term trades in bringing my overall break even to 4101. No clue how much higher it will go but I don't see any indications of topping so am feeding it in slowly.

8.3%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Gasoline going down kept it from being worse. Gasoline is not going to keep going down,
probably going back up at some point.

Premarket was +0.65% on S&P
I bet it is down by the end of the day.