Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

richard5za wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:42 am This chart you posted Higg demonstrates my point. If you draw a line from the November 2021 high to the April 2022 high and extend that you get a trend point at current date of around $ 22500. BTC needs to break up through that to attract smart money buying. If it doesn't do that the high probabilty is that it will drop to the next support level down. $ 7500 is a very clear support level and there may be a support level above. Some traders reckon $ 13000.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 9:14 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 9:48 am

richard5za wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:20 am I doubt that the smart money is buying at present and are probably out. In an unknown and rapidly rising asset such as BTC ...

Spotting the bottom of a down trend is very hard and its always better to wait for a confirmed up trend.

Do you conveniently leave out the fact that it has dipped over 5 times before like this AND gone back? That means what you are saying doesn't apply to this asset. It's pretty weird because it's disingenuous (I'm being nice). Why wouldn't smart money be buying? It just went down 60% in a version of its cycle, and the halving is upcoming again in 2024.

I agree that spotting the bottom is hard, but with the data and history we have, there is far more reason to believe that this goes back up to new ATH than anything you are saying (which you can't support).

It just stays down here forever, just because you say? At least give me a reason. I gave you several, including the history and chart, which you can't argue - thus you don't, you ignore it. I find that odd.

If someone were to start dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin now with a well thought out plan for the next year my guess is there's a 95% probability that investment will be up more than 20% at some point. Maybe 1 percent of funds per month or another 1% each 10 percent down: 20, 18, 16, etc. Bitcoin may not get to a new all time high but it's not going straight to zero either, in my opinion.

One of the reasons for this would be: If the Fed does not relent on the inflation fight, there are a lot of speculative issues in the Nasdaq that will never turn a profit and will be heading for bankruptcy. I said 1-2 years ago that there were 5,000 bubble items and Bitcoin was just another one of them. However, if the Fed does not relent, most of those bubble items will continue losing money or their profits will contract to the point that extrapolation will make it look like they will. At that point, the Fed should be close to reversing course. Even if Bitcoin is going down, once it starts to show relative strength against the Nasdaq, a bottom should be close. That is not happening yet, but Bitcoin is no longer losing relative to the Nasdaq either.

There are things that could change this and maybe my 95% (off the cuff) is too high, but there's still a lot of money out there, a real lot even if it's reduced some, and it has to go somewhere even if it's just a wicked bear market rally in Bitcoin.



Late in 2018 Bitcoin bottomed a few days before the Nasdaq and the relative strength against the Nasdaq shot up as the Nasdaq continued lower. A similar thing happened in March 2020.

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:57 am Thank you for finally admitting that I was correct in my thesis all along. I'll excuse you for not having enough stones to say it directly.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:10 am

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:57 am Thank you for finally admitting that I was correct in my thesis all along. I'll excuse you for not having enough stones to say it directly.

You're making a big leap there.

Like you dollar cost averaged from way higher levels, which was proven wrong, and you say Bitcoin will go to a new all time high, which it won't.

Also, you said Bitcoin would be at 100K this year and it is at 20K, and you said corporations and billionaires would be fully loaded this year, which they aren't.

All I'm saying is some kind of significant counter trend rally is setting up with high probability.

richard5za wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 12:23 pm I think we are at a very interesting phase in the BTC story:
Higg, you reckon that it will break the current down trend...

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:10 am

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:57 am Thank you for finally admitting that I was correct in my thesis all along. I'll excuse you for not having enough stones to say it directly.

You're making a big leap there.

Like you dollar cost averaged from way higher levels, which was proven wrong, and you say Bitcoin will go to a new all time high, which it won't.

Also, you said Bitcoin would be at 100K this year and it is at 20K, and you said corporations and billionaires would be fully loaded this year, which they aren't.

All I'm saying is some kind of significant counter trend rally is setting up with high probability.

richard5za wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 12:23 pm I think we are at a very interesting phase in the BTC story:
Higg, you reckon that it will break the current down trend,
I am saying it might break up through the current down trend and if not will break down to a support level below $ 18500, and
Cool is saying it will go up to a new all time high.
Lets agree to pick up the story again in a month at the end of November and see where things are going

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:57 am Let's be clear, my position is that we can (and I think will) go down one more mini level (stopping at 13-15k) due to the panic that might happen as the markets break when the Fed keeps hiking. I am comfortable for an all in BTC moment at those levels, but have not been buying as it hovers at this level (20). Right now, I see new ATHs late 2023 or in 2024 at some point.

vincecate wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 12:15 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:57 am Let's be clear, my position is that we can (and I think will) go down one more mini level (stopping at 13-15k) due to the panic that might happen as the markets break when the Fed keeps hiking. I am comfortable for an all in BTC moment at those levels, but have not been buying as it hovers at this level (20). Right now, I see new ATHs late 2023 or in 2024 at some point.

I also think Bitcoin go down in a general panic, even lower than that. And I also think that after the panic crash will be a good time to buy BTC and hold for years.

I don't expect to try to time the next ATH but just keep holding. I think there is a good chance of runaway dollar inflation (and probably hyperinflation) in the coming years. I think Bitcoin is the most likely replacement for the dollar.

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:54 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:10 am

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:57 am Thank you for finally admitting that I was correct in my thesis all along. I'll excuse you for not having enough stones to say it directly.

You're making a big leap there.

Like you dollar cost averaged from way higher levels, which was proven wrong, and you say Bitcoin will go to a new all time high, which it won't.

Also, you said Bitcoin would be at 100K this year and it is at 20K, and you said corporations and billionaires would be fully loaded this year, which they aren't.

All I'm saying is some kind of significant counter trend rally is setting up with high probability.

Ok, we can work with this. But if you criticize me, which is fine, just use my "trading" paradigm that I have painstakingly repeated for many times now. I have stated when my trade is "wrong", since my trade paradigm was 5-10 from 2 years back, even. Since that's my trade paradigm, I can guess (like I did previously being incorrect when it might hit 100k) but my trade was always a 5-10 year play. So quite clearly my suggested trade was a buy and long term hold, with DCA.

In the next 3 years, if it goes to a new ATH, with me buying in at teens levels and being up big on all positions, will you admit I was right?