Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Burner Prime wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:26 am

Gggy wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:56 am The Chinese will attack soon. Why? Because they think Americans are retarded. I have to agree.

They're not going to try to wait us out in a kind of Cold War 2.0 as they learned from the Soviet's mistake. As time goes on they will lose the initiative in many ways, including allowing us to improve in every way and widen the combat superiority gap even more - as is our doctrine.

China is militarily inferior to the US alone not including its allies. But China has been modernizing and expanding its military and is closing the gap. Your argument that China won't wait because the US will "improve in any way" is false. Yes, US capabilities are improving but the relative difference between the US and China is shrinking.

The new Japanese TSMC plant is a blow to them since now we won't have Taiwan as a tech single point-of-failure. As the world adjusts its posture to face China, their aspirations become harder to attain.

I think the fab TSMC announced for Arizona would be more important to the US than one in Japan. BTW, building motherboards isn't that difficult and the majority are now built in, wait for it, China, not Taiwan. They are not that sophisticated and new facilities could be brought on line fairly quickly. More important would be the processer manufacturing done in Taiwan. Right now TSMC does most of Apple's processors as well as a big chunk for AMD. Nvidia is mostly using Samsung right now while Intel uses its own fabs in the US. Some ASICS are also done overseas but those are mostly on older processes and the US has capacity to produce those domestically.

The US is also planning hundreds more new naval ships though only one new carrier anytime soon. Every year Taiwan's defenses get more sophisticated adding enormous costs to any invasion. Time is not on China's side if they want to retake Taiwan and punish Japan because we stand in their way.

The US will be building the Constellation class which will replace the almost completely useless LCS. There will be a replacement for the Burke class but that's still years away. New carriers are coming every 4-5 years. Submarine construction is going well which is good because the 688 boats are wearing out. In the meantime China is pumping out new ships for the PLAN at better than twice the rate of the USN. One fairly recent additional is amphibious assault ships which carry helicopters and troops. More importantly, quality and capabilities of China's new ships are much closer to Western standards. China is getting relatively stronger every year, not weaker.

My guess is in the absence of some event that triggers a chain of escalating conflict, they will wait until they have their two new nuke subs operational.

Surprisingly Chinese like Americans, as John has pointed out. They don't want to have to fight us, but have no choice since we stand in their way on Japan and Taiwan. I saw a vid asking young Chinese if they'd date/marry foreigners. Most said yes, and their top choice was French(romantic), Americans(strong willed), and Russians. They generally like us and their Secret Services don't harass American expats to any degree near that of Africans (including white South Africans), Indians, Middle Easterners. They hate those groups as subhuman.

University cancels event for whites to ‘process’ their ‘complicity in unjust systems’

Elon University in North Carolina has canceled an event for white people to process their complicity in injustice, because the meeting would exclude other races, the school told Fox News.

Young America’s Foundation on Tuesday revealed the “White caucus” event, publishing an email that specified the event was intended for white and “White-identifying” individuals to speak openly and avoid “retraumatiz[ing] people of color.”

“White caucuses give white people a space to learn about and process their awareness of and complicity in unjust systems without harming their friends of color,” reads the email, which was addressed to School of Education students.

Reason #9585475 why America will lose WW3.

Have a nice day.

Religious education isn’t dead. It’s just being re-packaged. Speaking of Seattle, Christopher Rufo shares leaked documents showing how “Seattle Public Schools tells teachers that the education system is guilty of ‘spirit murder’ against black children and that white teachers must ‘bankrupt [their] privilege in acknowledgement of [their] thieved inheritance.’” What’s “spirit murder”? “The murder of the souls of Black children every day through systemic, institutionalized, anti-Black, state-sanctioned violence.”

https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/statu ... 0954686465

The NYT sees itself now less as a factual source of news than a purveyor of narratives identical to critical race, gender and queer theory. It has abandoned the idea of a general reader in favor of readers defined entirely by their identity group. This now applies to foreign coverage as well. As a newspaper, it’s decreasingly useful. As an insight into the elite’s rejection of liberalism, it’s invaluable.

I'm glad I have never subscribed to the New York Times.

Critical Theory is not just a higher ed matter anymore. I have a daughter in the Seattle public school system, which is full of examples: (1) The principal signs emails this way: “William Jackson (Black|he, him)”. (2) The superintendent the past few years was a Native American woman who sent parents weekly newsletters awash in Social Justice language. Nevertheless, she was just fired for not going far enough. As a letter from the NAACP Youth Council put it, “Superintendent Juneau wasn’t doing enough to challenge the white supremacy in SPS.”

(3) My daughter’s 9th grade “World History” class spent 2-3 weeks studying the NFL kneeling controversy, 2 weeks studying the Black Panthers’ 10 Point Program and were assigned to write a similar 10-point program for change in their school. (4) They had an assembly meeting where ethnicity-based club members got on stage to express grievances, followed by white teachers groveling apologies to the students.

Guest wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:15 am Critical Theory is not just a higher ed matter anymore. I have a daughter in the Seattle public school system, which is full of examples: (1) The principal signs emails this way: “William Jackson (Black|he, him)”. (2) The superintendent the past few years was a Native American woman who sent parents weekly newsletters awash in Social Justice language. Nevertheless, she was just fired for not going far enough. As a letter from the NAACP Youth Council put it, “Superintendent Juneau wasn’t doing enough to challenge the white supremacy in SPS.”

(3) My daughter’s 9th grade “World History” class spent 2-3 weeks studying the NFL kneeling controversy, 2 weeks studying the Black Panthers’ 10 Point Program and were assigned to write a similar 10-point program for change in their school. (4) They had an assembly meeting where ethnicity-based club members got on stage to express grievances, followed by white teachers groveling apologies to the students.

Clearly this is the fault of the Gen-Z/Zoomers. If only they didn’t have all the power to dictate the curriculum and brainwashing they are subjected to. Those poor boomer/Gen-x administrators being swindled and tricked by Gen-Z. (/sarcasm)

Once again, older generations are actively allowing this type of bullshit to go on, and encouraging it. This is also the generation, along with millennials, who are supposed to band together to save America. I keep wondering who is going to band together, because this insane shit is reinforced and pushed everyday. Zoomers are being taught to hate anything that represents what America once was, and to apologize for ridiculous things like their parents remaining married, having a job or owning a house. The literal only hope is China being insane and opening warfronts on their north/south/east/west.

Zoomer go Brr wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:27 pm

Guest wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:15 am Critical Theory is not just a higher ed matter anymore. I have a daughter in the Seattle public school system, which is full of examples: (1) The principal signs emails this way: “William Jackson (Black|he, him)”. (2) The superintendent the past few years was a Native American woman who sent parents weekly newsletters awash in Social Justice language. Nevertheless, she was just fired for not going far enough. As a letter from the NAACP Youth Council put it, “Superintendent Juneau wasn’t doing enough to challenge the white supremacy in SPS.”

(3) My daughter’s 9th grade “World History” class spent 2-3 weeks studying the NFL kneeling controversy, 2 weeks studying the Black Panthers’ 10 Point Program and were assigned to write a similar 10-point program for change in their school. (4) They had an assembly meeting where ethnicity-based club members got on stage to express grievances, followed by white teachers groveling apologies to the students.

Clearly this is the fault of the Gen-Z/Zoomers. If only they didn’t have all the power to dictate the curriculum and brainwashing they are subjected to. Those poor boomer/Gen-x administrators being swindled and tricked by Gen-Z. (/sarcasm)

Once again, older generations are actively allowing this type of bullshit to go on, and encouraging it. This is also the generation, along with millennials, who are supposed to band together to save America. I keep wondering who is going to band together, because this insane shit is reinforced and pushed everyday. Zoomers are being taught to hate anything that represents what America once was, and to apologize for ridiculous things like their parents remaining married, having a job or owning a house. The literal only hope is China being insane and opening warfronts on their north/south/east/west.

I mostly agree with this. Voting with your feet is getting much more imperative. Seattle real estate is very expensive, you are paying huge property taxes for this horrific system. They only want revenge for past grievances even if it ruins social fabric and bankrupt the country. Move and save your family. I Sam in the process of doing such a thing and realizing how difficult/time consuming it is. Look at Portland and see that you will be next very soon.

Sadly, most people because of inertia or "family" can't cut the cord from current locations and mostly it is stupid. You'll end up saving on housing and taxes in a new location, and what is more important (remember all those years parents talked about "schools") than getting away from an education system that literally ruins and warps your kids brains? That's priceless. Cut bait.

** 11-Feb-2021 World View: The Inflationarian Prophets

This morning I heard a financial analyst explain why this time it's
different from the year 2000 stock market bubble. Je said that in
2000, none of the companies in the bubble had any earnings. But
today, all the companies are "crushing" earnings predictions, and
therefore the stock market will continue to go up for at least another
year or two.

He said that there's only one thing that worries him: Inflation. So
he's an active, praying member of the Inflationarian Church.

The Inflationarianists talk endlessly about the examples of the Weimar
Republic and Zimbabwe in the same way that people in other religions
refer to previous miracles. It's these miracles that supposedly prove
the Inflationarianist beliefs.

Now the Prophets of the Inflationatarian Church are predicting that
sending out $2,000 checks to all Americans will cause inflation.

John Lonsky, chief economist at Moody's, was on Varney on Wednesday
and said the following (my transcription):

> "It's gonna provide some support, but I wanna go back
> to what happened in 2020 when we had a similar infusion of cash
> from the federal government. In 2020 despite this great infusion
> of cash to people, those one time payments, consumer spending
> still fell by $400 billion. What went up is personal savings.

> This is incredible. Last year, personal savings rose I believe by
> about $1.5 trilion. We ended up with the highest personal savings
> rate on record.

> So I would think that these forthcoming checks, if they do
> anything, they would just add to personal savings over the near
> term. And that's mostly because people realize that this extra
> cash they're getting is not a recurring phenomenon. It's a
> one-time occurrence, and the tendency is to save.

> John Lonsky, chief economist with Moody's, 14:55"

So Lonsky is apparently not an Inflationatarian, and presumably neither
is Moody's as a whole.

The Inflationatarian Prophets and High Priests are one-trick ponies,
and usually reason in only one way -- if lots of money is being
"printed," then (hyper)inflation will follow.

But Lonsky's interview describes one of many reasons why this isn't true.
You can't just assume that any "printed" money will go into inflation.
As Lonsky shows, that "printed" money could go into savings accounts,
where it will have no effect on inflation.

For "printed" money to have an effect on inflation, it has to be used
to buy retail goods, then turned around to buy wholesale goods, then
turned around to pay wages. That's an example where the money is
turned around 3 times, which corresponds to a velocity of money value
of 3. That's why the velocity of money is correlated to inflation.
If "printed" money goes into circulation, then the velocity of
money goes up, and inflation goes up. If "printed" money goes into
savings, then it sits in a savings account, and has no effect on
inflation.

An interesting question is why there was so much inflation in the 1970s,
but no inflation today. The answer has to do with debt. In the 1970s,
people were not in debt, so they spent money on products and wages.
But today, everyone is deeply in debt, and they use any money they
get to pay off debt. And paying off debt is the same as "saving" money,
so it doesn't contribute to the velocity of money.

The monetary motive to be in the Inflationitarian Church is that
hyperinflation would wipe out debts. However, it's those debts that
make hyperinflation impossible today. And that's very bad news to the
Inflationarianists.

Generally that's a good analysis and is accurate for now. I've said this before (I'm not sure of John's timeline), just as SVM and Brent Johnson do, that deflation keeps going on and the USD rises until it causes further problems (mostly for emerging markets). The time inflation always hits (ask Martin Armstrong) is when people believe that the same money they possess will not buy the same goods in the near or longer term future. There is usually is a commodity run at that point. We have the beginnings of loss of confidence, but it is still early - the (lack of) confidence factor is what will drive velocity when the average man (not an innovator BTC guy like me) realizes that it is crystal clear that the USD is a joke and won't buy much next month or in a few months, etc. Then he'll start spending. And he always does. Then with relatively fewer goods, services or commodities around, prices skyrocket.

A variant that Johnson and I have always talked about for years is the political issue of when various Emerging Markets/Developing countries have to fold due to their excessive USD denominated debt for which they can't make good on. If they can cajole others to a new system and the USD suffers greatly, then that could be overnight loss in confidence. Or outright war (right up y'all's alley).