Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:40 pm Just a reminder:
Mike Snyder is still posting articles about the Ukrainian Crisis on his website.

can't find it

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ukra ... he-border/
and
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the- ... positions/

There was (allegedly) a failed coup attempt in Jordan on Saturday. King Abdullah's half-brother Hamzah has been placed under house arrest for his alleged involvement. Meanwhile there is speculation that Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed the coup plotters, although both countries are publicly siding with the Jordanian government.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/wh ... oil-181958
https://www.alquds.co.uk/%D9%8A%D8%AF%D ... A9-%D8%A7/
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-new ... -1.9679847

** 05-Apr-2021 World View: DeFi (Decentralized Finance) Crypto

I've had an inquiry about the meaning of "defi crypto," and what it
means for the world's financial system. Has anyone looked at this?

**** Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Definition
https://www.investopedia.com/decentrali ... fi-5113835

I always have the same question when discussing blockchain
technologies: What happens if there's a crisis (flood, hurricane,
sabotage, malware, war), and the internet becomes unavailable or large
numbers of servers along the blockchain are destroyed?

The answer that I keep looking for is some sort of non-blockchain
"backup." For example, if you're using blockchain to enforce the
terms of a "smart contract," then if there's a crisis and the
blockchain disappears, it might be possible for each of the parties to
have a hard copy or pdf of the contract, so that they can continue
performing on the terms of the contract until the internet returns (if
ever).

On the other hand, I'm nervous about using a crypto currency (bitcoin)
as a store of value, because it's not clear to me that the currency
will have any value at all any longer if the internet disappears.

All of this assumes that the blockchain code is bug-free. Bitcoin has
been around for 15 years, so the code is pretty thoroughly tested, so
it's probably ok.

But I've seen enough of the sloppiness of Gen-X and Millennial
programmers, and their contempt for self-checking code, validity
checking, and quality assurance, that I have absolutely no doubt that
many blockchain systems contain plenty of bugs.

** For academics: Dysfunction, subversion, sabotage and fraud in software development projects
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 150823.htm


So, for example, suppose the software code for a "smart contract" has
a bug in it? How will that be resolved? Suppose the "smart contract"
tells you that you're obligated to kill your mother, or else you'll be
in default of the contract, subject to default compensation of
$100,000. What do you do then? Do you pay the $100K, or do you kill
your mother?

This isn't so far-fetched. Believe me, I've seen such abominable code
in the last 20 years, that I'm certain that there are errors of that
sort in abundance. So is there going to be a "blockchain court" that
resolves such issues? Will that court be located in NY or Geneva, so
it can be part of the United Nations? Or should it be located in
Silicon Valley, where the leftist blockchain gurus live?

Does anyone have any further thoughts on this subject?

** 05-Apr-2021 World View: Jordan alleged coup

DaKardii wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:07 pm > There was (allegedly) a failed coup attempt in Jordan on
> Saturday. King Abdullah's half-brother Hamzah has been placed
> under house arrest for his alleged involvement. Meanwhile there is
> speculation that Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed the coup
> plotters, although both countries are publicly siding with the
> Jordanian government.

> https://nationalinterest.org/feature/wh ... oil-181958
> https://www.alquds.co.uk/%D9%8A%D8%AF%D ... A9-%D8%A7/
> https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-new ... -1.9679847

Thanks for posting those links. They were very interesting and
informative.

I've been watching the video of the sad plight of Prince Hamza all
weekend, and his weepy face as he describes sorrowfully how he's been
confined to his palatial luxurious mansion, and only allowed to see
friends and family. He says that he's being cut off from the
internet, but he was able sneak out that video before he was cut off.

It's hard to know what to make of this.

It does NOT appear to be an attempted coup, since no one from the
military is involved. It's not even clear that Hamza wants a coup.

What Hamza has been doing was organizing a protest against his
helf-brother, King Abdullah, accusing him of corruption and of being
responsible for the distrastrous economic situation. On the other
hand, Hamza was very popular with the people of Jordan and the tribal
leaders, so Abdullah may have feared that a coup was growing.

What Abdullah wanted was to shut down this protest, by arresting Hamza
and his group of protesters. This would have angered the tribal
leaders, but it's still not clear that this was leading to a coup.

Jordan has been an island of stability in the Mideast for decades, to
the benefit of everyone, so it doesn't seem likely to me that any
other governments really want to see Abdullah overthrown, since that
would destabilize their own governments as well.

So this seems like a Shakespearean family dispute, rather than a coup
attempt. However, it is possible that there are non-governmental
forces outside of Jordan that would like to promote a coup or
revolution. The Jordanians are Hashemites, which was Mohammed's
tribe, while other tribes are descendants of the Umayyad tribe that
Mohammed defeated in Mecca in 630. So these tribal differences go
back a long way.

If something like a coup does occur, whether from Hamza or otherwise,
now or in the future, then it could cause a chain reaction leading to
a much wider Mideast war. This could be the trigger we've been
expecting.

********* LATE NEWS **********************************

The BBC has just reported that Hamza has just signed a letter
pledging allegiance to the King.

I thought Hamza was the king's half brother.

Guest wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:08 pm I thought Hamza was the king's half brother.

Thanks for the correction.

John wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:17 pm ** 05-Apr-2021 World View: Jordan alleged coup
However, it is possible that there are non-governmental
forces outside of Jordan that would like to promote a coup or
revolution. The Jordanians are Hashemites, which was Mohammed's
tribe, while other tribes are descendants of the Umayyad tribe that
Mohammed defeated in Mecca in 630. So these tribal differences go
back a long way.

I'm convinced that there were foreign actors involved in this plot. Specifically Saudi Arabia, which as I stated earlier was considered a possible suspect.

Why would Saudi Arabia want Abdullah gone? Perhaps because it sees Abdullah as being too "independent" from the Saudi-led Sunni party line. In other words, the same reason behind its alleged involvement in the failed coup attempt in Turkey back in 2016, and the same reason it blockaded Qatar for 3 1/2 years.

And why would Saudi Arabia fear an independent Jordan? Keep in mind that like the Persians and the Turks, the Hashemites are a historic enemy of the House of Saud. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's very existence is the result of Nejd's conquest of Hejaz, the latter which had previously controlled both Mecca and Medina. The king of Hejaz at the time? Hussein bin Ali, a Hashemite and King Abdullah's great-granduncle. Yes, it was the Saudis who caused the Hashemites to lose control of Mecca and Medina. That's not something to be taken lightly in context of the region's politics. And not only that, Hejaz was the original homeland of the Hashemite dynasty.

** 05-Apr-2021 World View: Jordan coup

DaKardii wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:30 pm > I'm convinced that there were foreign actors involved in
> this plot. Specifically Saudi Arabia, which as I stated earlier
> was considered a possible suspect by high-ranking officials in the
> Jordanian government.

> Why would Saudi Arabia want Abdullah gone? Perhaps because it sees
> Abdullah as being too "independent" from the Saudi-led Sunni party
> line. In other words, the same reason behind its alleged
> involvement in the failed coup attempt in Turkey back in 2016, and
> the same reason it blockaded Qatar for 3 1/2 years.

> And why would Saudi Arabia fear an independent Jordan? Keep in
> mind that like the Persians and the Turks, the Hashemites are a
> historic enemy of the House of Saud. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's very
> existence is the result of Nejd's conquest of Hejaz, the latter
> which had previously controlled both Mecca and Medina. The king of
> Hejaz at the time? Hussein bin Ali, a Hashemite and King
> Abdullah's great-granduncle. Yes, it was the Saudis who caused the
> Hashemites to lose control of Mecca and Medina. That's not
> something to be taken lightly in context of the region's
> politics. And not only that, Hejaz was the original
> homeland of the Hashemite dynasty.

This doesn't make sense to me. Let's assume that everything you say is
right, and the Saudi government is backing a coup. So let's assume
that the coup is successful. Then what?

You've stated what the Saudis DON'T want -- an "independent" Jordan.
But you say nothing about what they DO want -- specifically the objective
of the coup they're sponsoring. Do they want Hamza to become King?
That wouldn't help the Saudis. Do they want to invade Jordan and
annex it to Saudi Arabia? That wouldn't help them either, and would
lead to full-scale war.

As I said in my article, I do think that it's possible that there are
Saudi tribes that would like to see a revolution in Jordan, but those
tribes would also like a revolution in Saudi Arabia as well. So I see
only two choices for the Saudi government -- support Abdullah, or
trigger a Mideast war.

John wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:54 pm This doesn't make sense to me. Let's assume that everything you say is
right, and the Saudi government is backing a coup. So let's assume
that the coup is successful. Then what?

Then Jordan remains in Saudi Arabia's sphere of influence. Although it may cause Hashemite nationalists to rise up and cause Jordan to become unstable.