Generational Dynamics World View News

[Xeraphim1]

Between the briefings link/posted by UtahBob and other sources, it appears that only somewhere between one third and maybe one half of available Russian forces in the Ukraine area are engaged.

If so, it is probable that the Russians are trying to pin Ukrainian forces into positions (this is called "fixing them into position") and then going around them with what they have held in reserve. Its effective when you are fighting a foe with smaller forces (as is the case with Russia vs Ukraine).

Navigator, Good observation from an operational viewpoint. Putin and the Russian military are very sensitive to casualties. The last thing they want is semi/lorries with freezer trailers filled with body bags. I wonder how the Russians will take care of their dead: go Chinese/no funeral/sweep under the carpet mode or state funeral/hero of the motherland? There are small anti-war protests in Russia, but they will be disappeared. If mothers of the KIA go to the streets that will be hard to cover up. Putin and the military, know they must do this quickly and go easy on the civilians because an insurgency is a tough nut to crack. Since they are under a pretty good ISR (civilian and military) network going ISIS or Nazi level repression will be hard to cover up. Ultimately Putin needs Ukraine back on their feet for the harvest dates https://www.t-stormweather.net/producti ... kraine.pdf. This is also applicable to what is left of the heavy industry.

During it's previous invasion of Ukraine Russia deployed mobile crematoriums to burn the bodies of Russians killed in Ukraine. Then it could claim that they dies in "training accidents" and no one could prove it wrong. Harder these days with an actual war going on though I can certainly imagine that death notifications won't be sent until after the war is over.

[Xeraphim1]

This site is getting funnier and more amusing by the moment.

Snowden's a traitor, lol

then we list the daily mail report that "Putin is raging"

You guys are hysterical, I'm loving this total shit show of commentary, it's laughable.

Snowden has been a traitor for a long time. Stealing classified information and giving it to an enemy and seeking asylum from an enemy kinda fits the definition. They fact that you don't see this says something about you.

[Xeraphim1]

It looks like the SIGINT and EW platforms are up. https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/statu ... 2239879188

They're there hoovering up all those Russian emissions including for stuff we didn't even know about. The tech guys must be having a field day. And passing data off to Ukraine.

[Xeraphim1]

I do think that a couple of important points have been missed by the West, in that they don't understand Russia and especially not Putin

The first is the Russia has made sure that it is surrounded by vassal states for a very long time, about 300 years. This to protect the mother country. This was lost in 1991 with the break up of the Soviet Union, and the break up might have been tolerated except for the West's expansion of NATO, which again Russia has been complaining about for a long time. One of the telling things Putin said is that 'now maybe they will listen to me'

I think the West understands Putin's arguments quite well; it just discounts them. Russia is not entitled to have a halo of client states to provide some dubious protection. These days it makes little difference since missiles and air power have long range and fast speed.

The second is that Putin clearly doesn't want democracy and he wants to create circumstances that work against democracy, especially on Russia's borders. And I do think that the West over elevates the merits of democracy and don't listen to alternative views; for instance the poor of Peru, with all their difficulties of living are definitely much more joyful that the average American who has many, many times the wealth. The West now mostly overlooks the purpose of life.

Putin most likely doesn't want democracy at all and would be much happier under the old Soviet regime that he mourns so much. That doesn't mean that the people of Russia don't want it. But them Putin treats Russians as though he was a Tsar; who cares what the peasants want as long as they obey.

[Xeraphim1]

** 27-Feb-2022 World View: Air dominance

> One of the things that are making many of us observers scratch our
> heads is the lack of success the VVS or Russian Airborne is having
> taking the airports around Kyiv. We thought the Russians would
> establish air dominance over Ukraine and an air bridge with SPRUT
> light tanks being dropped to create an airhead. Landing
> helicopters with penny packets of 300 paratroopers scattered is an
> ass-backward way of doing things with a lack of CAS. Reports are
> coming out that the Russians have lost multiple IL-76s and
> Ka-52. If true IL-76 shot down means companies (100+) of
> paratroopers were killed on each transport. That is a shit
> sandwich to eat. Here is the American or NATO way to do business
> https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs ... fm3_99.pdf

I've heard the same thing from tv analysts who describe the Russian
invasion as a "debacle" so far, as I described a few posts back. The
army is running out of petrol, bullets and food, and Ukrainian
warplanes are in the air shooting at Russian warplanes.

Part of it might be that the Russian military has not fought a real war in a while and neither the leadership nor the troops themselves are very professional. There aren't political officers in every unit anymore, but loyalty counts more than proficiency. Another sign of the rot in leadership starting at the very top. Also, Russian is not a rich nation and logistics are expensive. The state of Texas is richer than Russian and it would have a hard time supporting an army of that size.

[Xeraphim1]

If Russia fails to take Kiev, then it will be the end of Putin (politically). His support base will not forgive him for losing a war that they believe should've been easily won. Of course that's not necessarily something to be celebrated. If Putin falls, he may be succeeded by someone much more radical and unpredictable.

Additionally, if Russia loses this war the Sino-Russian "alliance" may collapse prematurely. It was always destined to collapse eventually, but if Russia demonstrates that it's weaker than the rest of the world thought then China will no longer have any incentive to hold back against trying to take Siberia.

We live in interesting times...

Putin would blame it on the incompetence of the generals and interference of NATO. There is no alternative to Putin and the security forces are still loyal since if Putin goes, how would they maintain their positions of power and wealth?

[John]

** 27-Feb-2022 World View: A Russian palace coup

> Putin would blame it on the incompetence of the generals and
> interference of NATO. There is no alternative to Putin and the
> security forces are still loyal since if Putin goes, how would
> they maintain their positions of power and wealth?

I remember when the generals attempted a coup against Yeltsin, while
he was vacationing at his dacha in Sochi, he gave an interview from
his dacha where he said that he couldn't believe it was happening
because "they must be crazy."

[Xeraphim1]

Fun consequence:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... g-26341799

A Russian television host was moved to tears as he revealed EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine have cost him two luxury homes on Lake Como.

Vladimir Solovyov is known for his show which attacks the West and Europe by spreading false information.

Despite his hatred, he owned two mansions on the picturesque Amalfi Coast in Italy where he counted George and Amal Clooney and singer Sting among his superstar neighbours.

This week the EU announced far reaching sanctions on several rich Russians.

As a result, Solovyov will not be allowed to enjoy the Italian sunshine.

He raged on his show, The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov: “I was told that Europe is a citadel of rights, that everything is permitted, that’s what they said…I know from personal experience about the so-called ‘sacred property rights.

“With every transaction I was bringing paperwork demonstrating my official salary, income, I did it all. I bought it, paid crazy amount of taxes, I did everything.

“And suddenly someone makes a decision that this journalist is now on the list of sanctions…right away it affects your real estate.”

Sucks when what you've been advocating affects you personally. Ha!

[Xeraphim1]

More fun news:

https://www.reuters.com/business/russia ... 022-02-28/

SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble tumbled to a record low against the dollar on Monday, after Western nations announced a harsh set of sanctions over the weekend to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including sanctions on the country's currency reserves.

The dollar/rouble rate was up 41.50% at a record 119.00 per dollar, in Asian trading. So far this month, the dollar is up 53.77% versus rouble.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military command to put nuclear-armed forces on high alert on Sunday, in response to Western reprisals for his war on Ukraine - the biggest assault on a European state since World War Two.

Russia's central bank announced a slew of measures on Sunday to support domestic markets, as it scrambled to manage the fallout of the sanctions that will block some banks from the SWIFT international payments system.

The central bank said it would resume buying gold on the domestic market, launch a repurchase auction with no limits and ease restrictions on banks' open foreign currency positions.

The currency had found some support last week from the first Russian central bank currency interventions since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. read more

Analysts at Rabobank said the sanctions on currency reserves read more removed what little support the rouble had.

"Even the gold is not liquid if nobody can use FX in exchange for it. There will be a complete collapse in the rouble today..." they wrote.

Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a note on Sunday, "a collapse in the rouble appears inevitable on Monday morning", and there was an increased risk of a Russian debt default as a result of the weekend developments.

"For the rouble whilst you might see it should sell off somewhat, I really doubt you are going to see people put on fresh bets to sell the rouble at these levels – so you might well see it weakening, but I don’t think you will see people transacting all that heavily," said Peter Kinsella, London-based global head of FX strategy at UBP.

"There is a general lack of liquidity, and where you do see liquidity it is one sided, skewed to rouble sellers. It will be tricky, I can see rouble weakening quite severely – but just because it is weakening doesn’t mean it will be transacting heavily."

Looks like all those hundreds of billions of reserves the Russian trolls crow about won't do that much good.

[Guest]

The idea that Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia is laughable. let's not forget that As soon as he was kicked out of office, Gerhard Schroeder, former German chancellor, went to Russia for a job at Gazprom and is currently on the Nordstream 2 board.

As to US politician families, yes, there were members working in Ukraine during the Obama administration. In the years since then Ukraine has become less corrupt and more transparent.

Suggesting that NATO is the bad guy in a comparison to Russia is not just false but blatant stupidity. Either that or the work of paid Russian trollery.

When did I say that Ukraine is "more corrupt than Russia"? Why do people quote others with things they haven't said before? You are laughable for posting stupid crap like that. Stop it. It's deceptive and bad faith.

It's a common argument of the people supporting Russia to point out corruption in Ukraine. If you don't want to be tarred with the same brush, stop using the same tactics

Oh, lordi...