18-Jun-13 WV-80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers

[John]

18-Jun-13 World View -- 80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo

Israel toughens law against 'Price Tag' attacks

** 18-Jun-13 World View -- 80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130618



Contents:
80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo
Hamas rebukes its former ally, Hezbollah, over Syria
Israel toughens law against 'Price Tag' attacks


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah,
Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Hamas, Egypt,
Israel, Price Tag, Benjamin Netanyahu

[Trevor]

Well, simply flattening the city isn't going to work so well here. Al-Qusair had only around 30,000 residents, while Aleppo is Syria's largest city with a population of two million. Certainly, they'll try, but I'm not certain they'll succeed.

Also, I'm not too sure they'll manage to retake Aleppo. Commentators may have talked about the ebb and flow of the war, but they fail to mention the reason. What we've seen is that every time one side looks like it's on the verge of victory, the supporters of the losing side refuse to let that happen. A year ago, Assad was crushing them, so Saudi Arabia and other suppliers of the rebels increased the number and quality of weapons to prevent it. Two months ago, Assad was on the brink of collapse, so his allies sent in more heavy weapons, thousands of Hezbollah soldiers, and now there's at least talk of sending Iranians as well. If Aleppo is about to fall, and the rebels on the losing end, I would expect the same tit-for-tat pattern we've been seeing to continue.

The options are numerous. I don't think we're going to implement a no-fly zone, but more plausible options are more fighters coming from foreign countries, Turkey increasing arms sales, or perhaps sending a limited number of troops into Northern Syria. To me, those seem like the most likely responses.