My thoughts have been fairly consistent since Obama and other western leaders volunteered, or more or less promised Putin, that NATO would not take any military action, even if Putin continued a military offensive in Ukraine, after annexing Crimea.John wrote:
So you've changed your mind from last week?
The explanation of this announcement, by western leaders at the time, was that since Ukraine was not part of Nato, it would not trigger a military response.
The same logic applies to many other countries Russia has a beef with. Moldova and Georgia for example.
At that point the question became what made the most sense for Russia to do, and the least sense, given Putin's world view.
There is more than one reason to put such an leviathan tank force on Ukraine's northern and northeastern border.
A credible threat of force may achieve many things even if that force is not used.
Taking and holding Kiev militarily would be a huge problem for Putin, but taking the Kiev bridges and holding them long enough to push your army and it's organic supplies through to the Southwestern portion of the East European Plain is a different objective. Russia's ability to do so whenever it wanted would also make the current anti-Moscow government in Kiev look weak.
I am NOT predicting Putin will do that, but it would be a very rational decision given Putin's goal of re-creating the Russian empire. Putin may never have a better chance. The door is closing fast as NATO re-evaluates the free pass it has given Putin in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other countries that are not yet part of NATO.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2462
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2458
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2456
Militarily, if, three months from now, Russian forces were secure in the Bessarabia region of Ukraine and Moldova, with secure supply lines by sea, air and a southern land route from Crimea, it would be easier to go back and take those three extremely pro-Russian eastern province of Ukraine, than the other way around.
Or Putin could attempt to do both at the same time.
I am predicting that the tank force will NOT be used to attack just those three provinces. Putin has other forces that can do that. But Obama might be correct. Putin may be lashing out from a position of weakness, not strength, and Putin may go out his way to prove it by attacking his friends, not his enemies. Obama may be correct, Putin and Russia may be weak, and taking those three friendly provinces of Ukraine may be the best Russia can do. The whole world will see the answer to that question.