Kiev Government - Stuck in the Military Trap of east Ukraine

[Reality Check]

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The Kiev government is now stuck in the military trap of extreme eastern Ukraine and is unable to locate a path out that does not make Kiev's position even worse.

Kiev, not Russia, has placed military check points in portions of eastern Ukraine where the separatists are not in control. If these check points are manned by Ukrainian speakers they will not only be an impedance to the conduct of private business that hurts the economy and to freedom of private citizens to travel just by the check points existence, they will also strike the Russian speaking eastern Ukrainians as an occupying foreign army.

Kiev is now so fearful of Russian tanks and combat aircraft crossing the border as punishment for Kiev, if Kiev uses lawful government lethal force within their own country, that the Kiev government has taken it upon themselves to restrict the loyal ( loyal to Kiev ) military forces operating in eastern Ukraine from challenging the separatists.

If Kiev leaves it's forces where they are under current orders, then separatists will take ever more parts of eastern Ukraine, while forces loyal to Kiev simply stand and watch it happen.

If Kiev launches an attack, then at best a civil war will start with Russia supporting Kiev's enemies, or, at worst, Russian tanks and combat aircraft will join the invasion at a point on Ukraine's border, of Russia's choice.

If Kiev withdraws, then the separatists who are willing to use force against their political opponents within Ukraine, while Kiev refrains from using force, then they, the separatists, will be the de-facto government of the areas of Ukraine that the Kiev government withdraws from.

If Kiev takes Russia up on what appears to be an exit ramp for Kiev ( negotiations with the separatists to change the constitution ) then the separatists are in a position to drag the negotiations out forever, until their allies in Russia achieve what they want. In the meantime the economy of Ukraine under the Kiev government will continue to erode, and the people of Ukraine will continue to lose confidence in the Kiev government.

All paths open to Kiev appear to make it very hard to hold a credible nation wide election in late May. Both a credible nation wide election for a new elected Ukrainian President to replace the one that ran away, and a credible nation wide election for, the yet to be defined, changes to the Ukrainian constitution to be approved by the nation's voters appear doubtful.

The longer the Kiev government is unable to exercise control over it's own country, the weaker and less credible, every action, and every statement, by the Kiev government appears and the weaker the Ukrainian economy will become.