Fourth Turning aligning with Elliott Wave Supercycle?

[Phong Tran]

I'm just an amateur at elliott wave theory and don't profess to know all that much about fourth turning theory either. But I do enjoy seeing possibilities in charts and life and haven't seen this around in elliott wave analysis yet. Most people think that supercycle IV ended at the 2008 low in an A-B-C correction, however I believe a 2025-2026 low would fit nicely with a fourth turning crisis in the United States and western civilization. It also gives room for supercycle V which could be the initial stages of the clash of civilization war as well as is the perfect excuse for the great reset. It would definitely cause the dollar to spike causing global defaults and the gold:dow ratio once again meeting at $5000.

I enjoy the fact that it seems to align with many factors, but other then that don't really have any attachment to the outcome either way. I'm just an observer with no skin in the game so to speak.

[richard5za]

Mr Phong Tran, pleased to meet you; this is a very interesting post. Thank you for posting it
I will need to study it in more detail in order to comment properly
I don't do Elliot Wave analysis myself but enjoy studying the work of others. I am a short term stock market trader often same day for longs and shorts
I agree that 2008 was not the IV turning and that this is still to come.
Your projection of around 5000 on the Dow is about the same as mine but more optimistic that some people on this weblog
Talk again

[richard5za]

Mr Phong Tran,
I am not understanding your comment on Dow: Gold ratio.
At present with the Dow at 30 500 and Gold at 1830 it takes 16.67 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. If you look at a 100 year chart there has been a low of 2 and a high of 102 ounces to buy the Dow
What are your projected values for the Dow index and the price of gold when you say they will meet at $ 5000?

[richard5za]

Another question Mr Phong Tran on your interesting analysis.
You have the low happening, the IV turning, in about 2 to 3 years
Does your analysis have waterfall crashes or just grinding down or a combination of both?
Obviously there will also be a number of bear market rallies. How many?
Is the timing very flexible? Could take 1 year or 5 years to hit the bottom?
Thank you.
Looking forward to your comments

[Tom Mazanec]

A 4T is a period (normally around twenty years), not an event. Our reaction to covid, as opposed to the comparable Asian Flu (or the even worse Spanish Flu) shows that, whenever it began, we are in a 4T now.

[richard5za]

A 4T is a period (normally around twenty years), not an event. Our reaction to covid, as opposed to the comparable Asian Flu (or the even worse Spanish Flu) shows that, whenever it began, we are in a 4T now.

My understanding is when society passes through a perilous gate in history that is a IV turning. Lining it up with Elliot Wave would put a massive stock market crash and subsquent bottom as a moment in history following an event i.e. market crash and perhaps others events such as war

[Tom Mazanec]

Then we have different understandings of the term.
John, could you please weigh in?

[John]

** 22-Jun-2022 World View: Fourth Turning

The current Fourth Turning (Crisis Era) began in 2003, and we're
currently on the cusp of entering a Fifth Turning. A generational
crisis war occurs during a fourth or fifth turning. The term
"perilous gate in history" refers to the climax of the crisis war, not
the generational era.

[richard5za]

** 22-Jun-2022 World View: Fourth Turning

The current Fourth Turning (Crisis Era) began in 2003, and we're
currently on the cusp of entering a Fifth Turning. A generational
crisis war occurs during a fourth or fifth turning. The term
"perilous gate in history" refers to the climax of the crisis war, not
the generational era.

Yes, but what Mr Phong Tran has tried to do is match Elliot Wave stock market analysis to the Turnings, So he is matching the bottom of the market to a Turning point. There will be a bottom. How to match it?
I await his comments

[Phong Tran]

Hi richard5za,

Well met, the chart was created mainly to show the possible megaphone pattern that could be tied to the bottoming of a fourth turning. The period of 2025-2026 was my initial thought based on a waterfall collapse of stocks as earnings start to decline, inflation eats into savings and the Fed being stuck between a rock and a hard place. However, if the Fed is able to jawbone rates back and forth, I could possibly see them extending the decline into 2028-2029 as well.



Many refer to this megaphone pattern chart for the dow:gold ratio, with the belief that as the gyrations get bigger that the peak and troughs of each period get more extreme. There are some people that believe the ratio could get even as low as 0.5 or 1:2, meaning that the dow could drop to 5000 while Gold peaks at $10,000.

I agree that we are in the fourth turning, I don't think anyone can say otherwise based on the current path of western civilization. Sometimes when I use the term fourth turning, I use it in the context of the climax of the period, so that's probably where there could be some confusion. The 2025-2026 period should start to see the collapse of the periphery I believe, countries larger than Sri Lanka, that imprint an impression into the public that the system really is broken. Sovereign debt crisis could definitely be the climax of the fourth turning that forces an entirely new financial system to emerge out of the chaos that follows.