Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

• Moore's law simplified is that information processing doubles every 18 months. I've heard that's slowed down a bit lately as we reach physical limits of transistor size.

• The singularity is where information processing changes completely and doubles at a much faster rate, creating a discontinuity in the processing curve

• AI is now becoming a thing, I saw a video where an expert estimated AI was doubling how smart/intelligent it is every 6 months. Not sure how that's measured or how to square that with Moore's law. If AI intelligence is the same thing as information processing, than we may be entering a knuckle of the "singularity", where the rate of change isn't a single point, but a range of time.

• AI at the moment is fast and smart at some things, but also misses some significant things. If you tried to run a company just off of just AI right now, it wouldn't work.

• However, if intelligence of AI double every 6 months, it really won't be long until AI starts being smarter than the smartest person. 5 years is 10 doublings or 1000X smarter. As an engineer, I'm frankly astounded that AI can take problems I had in classes in college and solve them in seconds - where is would take me hour(s) in a team to get the same results. Where will we be in 5 years?? Think of all the expensive occupations that are really just about transferring knowledge.. Doctors, Teachers, Engineers, Accountants, Lawyers - will we all be obsolete? (hint the occupations with the most staying power are the ones that actually physically do something, like plumbing... until robots can be built at scale cheaply)

• AI takes enormous amounts of energy - maybe it's gets more efficient as they improve software, maybe not, but there is only so much energy available and you can't build a power plant quickly. This will slow down the progress.

• AI takes lots of chips, which are mostly made in Taiwan... that could definitely end up being a problem

• Global war, along with destruction of infrastructure including power generation could definitely affect the trajectory of how fast AI is adopted, however, John also pointed out that war leads to heavy investment in leading edge technologies like AI.

• John also had a graphic on the singularity as I recall, where the first decade after it occurred would be chaotic, and then it would become a utopia.

• I think part of the human condition is to learn how to strive and work through things. It builds character, confidence and resiliency. A world where everything is easy, where a computer/AI can do everything better than a person can (so why bother trying?), is tragic. I know the things I've accomplished in life have come from determination, hard work and support from friends/family. I pause to think what I would be like if I hadn't had to work to get where I am... scary...

• Moore's law simplified is that information processing doubles every 18 months. I've heard that's slowed down a bit lately as we reach physical limits of transistor size.

• The singularity is where information processing changes completely and doubles at a much faster rate, creating a discontinuity in the processing curve

• AI is now becoming a thing, I saw a video where an expert estimated AI was doubling how smart/intelligent it is every 6 months. Not sure how that's measured or how to square that with Moore's law. If AI intelligence is the same thing as information processing, than we may be entering a knuckle of the "singularity", where the rate of change isn't a single point, but a range of time.

• AI at the moment is fast and smart at some things, but also misses some significant things. If you tried to run a company just off of just AI right now, it wouldn't work.

• However, if intelligence of AI double every 6 months, it really won't be long until AI starts being smarter than the smartest person. 5 years is 10 doublings or 1000X smarter. As an engineer, I'm frankly astounded that AI can take problems I had in classes in college and solve them in seconds - where is would take me hour(s) in a team to get the same results. Where will we be in 5 years?? Think of all the expensive occupations that are really just about transferring knowledge.. Doctors, Teachers, Engineers, Accountants, Lawyers - will we all be obsolete? (hint the occupations with the most staying power are the ones that actually physically do something, like plumbing... until robots can be built at scale cheaply)

• AI takes enormous amounts of energy - maybe it's gets more efficient as they improve software, maybe not, but there is only so much energy available and you can't build a power plant quickly. This will slow down the progress.

• AI takes lots of chips, which are mostly made in Taiwan... that could definitely end up being a problem

• Global war, along with destruction of infrastructure including power generation could definitely affect the trajectory of how fast AI is adopted, however, John also pointed out that war leads to heavy investment in leading edge technologies like AI.

• John also had a graphic on the singularity as I recall, where the first decade after it occurred would be chaotic, and then it would become a utopia.

• I think part of the human condition is to learn how to strive and work through things. It builds character, confidence and resiliency. A world where everything is easy, where a computer/AI can do everything better than a person can (so why bother trying?), is tragic. I know the things I've accomplished in life have come from determination, hard work and support from friends/family. I pause to think what I would be like if I hadn't had to work to get where I am... scary...

Bob Butler wrote: ↑

Sun May 04, 2025 12:44 pm

Yah. The greater the disaster, the greater the need for progressive change. We're getting a bunch of disaster. The rich elites having too much say in government? Too much prejudice?

Personally, I'd rather the current system had been preserved by a Kamala victory, but with Trump we are getting a true economic collapse and constitutional crisis. A real S&H crisis, missing only a crisis war thus far. Still, give him time...

spottybrowncow wrote: ↑

Fri May 02, 2025 8:31 pm

I would like to encourage all GD readers to to read this:

https://now.tufts.edu/2019/11/21/why-un ... superpower

It is somewhat dated (2019), but I think still highly relevant. In a time of increasing pessimism and doomsaying, it offered me an engagingly different perspective - maybe right, maybe wrong, but engaging, nonetheless. I look forward to others' feedback.

Spotty

Yale historian Paul Kennedy conducted a famous study comparing great powers over the past five hundred years and concluded: “Nothing has ever existed like this disparity of power; nothing.” The United States is, quite simply, “the greatest superpower ever.”

Let’s take the office building story step-by-step:

Between 2010 and 2020, millions of square feet of office space were financed with unnaturally cheap credit.

During the pandemic, millions of Americans discovered that they prefer working from home and refused to return to the office. Occupancy rates for many office buildings, as a result, are now so low that cash flow doesn’t cover expenses.

The post-pandemic inflation spike forced governments to raise interest rates just as loans on thousands of office buildings are coming up for refinancing. Combine lower cash flow with higher interest expense, and the result is plummeting valuations for many office buildings.

The Trump administration begins cutting the federal workforce, further emptying already underused offices. The result: a mountain of bad commercial real estate paper festering on bank balance sheets, threatening a banking crisis in the coming year.

Can An Economy Grow While Its Real Estate Tanks? Nope

Housing is a lead weight, while office space is a ticking time bomb. Neither is conducive to steady 3% non-inflationary growth. They might be the first dominoes to fall, as in 2008, or they might contribute to a crisis caused by geopolitics or an equities bear market. Either way, real estate is definitely part of the “imminent recession” story.