Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: What happened at 10:38 am?

Post by John »

John wrote:The markets were up slightly until 10:38 am, following a positive ISM
report, then suddenly the Dow fell 150 points in just a few minutes.

What was that all about?

John
The reason being given is "valuations are stretched."

This is hilarious. Valuations have been stretched since 1995.

John
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Project Mayhem Reporting Global News. ZH
CNBC Zero Content.
Washington removed from Public acountability.

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorial ... /0827.html
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Housing Numbers and CRE
Cold winds are blowing. Long time to Spring
https://www.realpoint.com/

Geography
The top three states ranked by delinquency exposure have remained consistent since January 2009, as
California, Texas, and Florida collectively accounted for over 30% of delinquency through July 2009.
• The 10 largest states by delinquent unpaid balance reflect 62% of CMBS delinquency, while the 10
largest states by overall CMBS exposure reflect 53% of the CMBS universe.
• The states of California and Texas remain a major concern at over 12% and 9% of CMBS delinquency
respectively. By MSA, California delinquency is diversified while Texas delinquency is concentrated
within the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth MSAs (over 7% of CMBS delinquency), with each MSAs’
default percentage growing on a monthly basis (near 5% each).
• While no MSAs topped 4% of CMBS delinquency in June 2009, only one (Phoenix, AZ) did so in July.
• The 10 largest MSAs by delinquent unpaid balance reflect 33% of CMBS delinquency, while the 10
largest MSAs by overall CMBS exposure reflect 34% of the CMBS universe.

I can see sand bag mentality to lock and pass September and maybe risk October on Market play then IMO.
Many are waiting I think as am I to move capital.
MarshAviator
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:40 pm

Re: What happened at 10:38 am?

Post by MarshAviator »

John wrote:The markets were up slightly until 10:38 am, following a positive ISM
report, then suddenly the Dow fell 150 points in just a few minutes.

What was that all about?

John
Apparently a rumor about a bank failure is given by AP byline story.
The stock market was already on edge going in to Wednesday's session after a big sell-off the day before that took the major indexes down about 2 percent. Rumors of a major bank failure triggered the selling, adding to the growing anxiety on Wall Street that stocks are overvalued considering their run-up of more than 50 percent since March
Or was it some kind of insider selling which has been reported to be at all time high.

I can't prove it yet, but think a couple of big guys see something coming and are getting out while they can.
Sadly it looks like we can only reconstruct what happened after the fact.

The next two months will be quite interesting.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7984
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I read a story in Reuters that said China's government may have authorized some state owned enterprises who are carrying large losses on derivatives sold to them by US banks to go ahead and default on the contracts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFina ... 6520090831

My guess is that it's beginning to dawn on the mindless New York herd that this is the spark that could lead to a crash and there's little anyone can do to stop it. This story probably goes hand in hand with the reported rumors of a major bank failure.

Also, the herd may be beginning to realize, as mentioned before, that the Fed can't guarantee any of this mess.
Yet the real issue may be that banks, stuck with record excess reserves, and even more record holdings of toxic real estate paper, will sooner rather than later, realize that they can not rely on the Fed's backing in perpetuity and gradually start offloading the toxicity that currently passes for bank assets, and move into a safer class, especially as leveragability falls off, and banks once again become banks, instead of glorified, backstopped hedge funds, a prime example of which always is Goldman Sachs.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/full-b ... ode-coming

That's a very interesting quote. The big question in my mind is whether this process will be gradual. I cannot imagine why it would be.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Higgenbotham wrote:I read a story in Reuters that said China's government may have authorized some state owned enterprises who are carrying large losses on derivatives sold to them by US banks to go ahead and default on the contracts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFina ... 6520090831

My guess is that it's beginning to dawn on the mindless New York herd that this is the spark that could lead to a crash and there's little anyone can do to stop it. This story probably goes hand in hand with the reported rumors of a major bank failure.

Also, the herd may be beginning to realize, as mentioned before, that the Fed can't guarantee any of this mess.
Yet the real issue may be that banks, stuck with record excess reserves, and even more record holdings of toxic real estate paper, will sooner rather than later, realize that they can not rely on the Fed's backing in perpetuity and gradually start offloading the toxicity that currently passes for bank assets, and move into a safer class, especially as leveragability falls off, and banks once again become banks, instead of glorified, backstopped hedge funds, a prime example of which always is Goldman Sachs.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/full-b ... ode-coming

That's a very interesting quote. The big question in my mind is whether this process will be gradual. I cannot imagine why it would be.
In a few segments over the next 16 weeks, in 4 of those weeks they are to be layoffed being department specific. Housing is not stabalized as conveyed. Incremental pain is witnessed as saving to uncertainty being you are working on and off. Me Included, as value added investment is narrowed. Imagine a cash only Christmas as we have done over the last years.
The low hanging dumb money already picked clean Higgy. The technical drops shifts where noted after 1932 also. The economy and speculation are 2 different aspects.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

The sum of all fears.
14383_a.png
14383_a.png (25.37 KiB) Viewed 6033 times
A Plausible Reality
by Joseph Russo
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Wow - that graph is really dramatic.

The mood on tv is really dark. They're even starting to admit they
don't know what's going on.

I heard Steve Lieseman this morning say that economists are puzzled
about why jobs are continuing to be lost at the same rate (around
570,000 jobless claims per month). I've never heard him say anything
like that before.

More and more pundits are are talking about a correction. Of course,
that leaves the Pollyannas to say that the fact that everyone expects
a correction means that the market is really going to go up. Don't
you just love these people? Don't laugh -- they make 6 or 7 digit
salaries.

However, one pundit says that there's a lot of nervousness about
Friday's jobs report. If it's "bad," then he expects a quick 10%
correction.

However, what I perceive is that the serenity and complacency that
investors felt just a week ago seems to have evaporated.

Sincerely,

John
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Who is naked in the moon light John: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-k ... link=kiosk
Even if we told them they would ignore us John on the Capital Investment Issues. Slowly they are walking out the door as we conveyed. Discipline over conviction is at hand and they do not get it. Treasury as proxy in relationship to monetized debt ratios and tearup's we warned about. Settlements are due in October in EU.
John wrote:Wow - that graph is really dramatic.

The mood on tv is really dark. They're even starting to admit they
don't know what's going on.

I heard Steve Lieseman this morning say that economists are puzzled
about why jobs are continuing to be lost at the same rate (around
570,000 jobless claims per month). I've never heard him say anything
like that before.

More and more pundits are are talking about a correction. Of course,
that leaves the Pollyannas to say that the fact that everyone expects
a correction means that the market is really going to go up. Don't
you just love these people? Don't laugh -- they make 6 or 7 digit
salaries.

However, one pundit says that there's a lot of nervousness about
Friday's jobs report. If it's "bad," then he expects a quick 10%
correction.

However, what I perceive is that the serenity and complacency that
investors felt just a week ago seems to have evaporated.

Sincerely,

John
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

aedens wrote: > Who is naked in the moon light John:
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-k ... link=kiosk
> Even if we told them they would ignore us John on the Capital
> Investment Issues. Slowly they are walking out the door as we
> conveyed. Discipline over conviction is at hand and they do not
> get it. Treasury as proxy in relationship to monetized debt ratios
> and tearup's we warned about. Settlements are due in October in
> EU.
That's an interesting story, undoubtedly dictated by the Beijing
government, as they prepare for war with the West.

John
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 24 guests