Financial topics

[richard5za]

So we are starting to get some better data. It seems worse than I was thinking.

The Coronavirus Isn’t Just the Flu, Bro
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... JT06yPEGuo

Age group IFR rate and comorbidity IFR rate are the issues. My view is that if we lock up the old folks and those with comorbidities, so that they don't clog up the hospitals, we should be able to burn through and save the economy. Whether the politicians and the public would allow this is another matter. The other point is that you can't do this in over crowded and poor localities, so it becomes seriously discriminatory against the poor.

[Higgenbotham]

This week I recovered almost all of the 34 point loss noted here. I ended the week short 5 lots at an average 2643.

As noted earlier, I will not be adding until the market establishes a downtrend. That's not my usual style, but I'm guessing the next downtrend could be a crash and when all is said and done, it won't be the 50 or so points that matters, but being on as much as you can be on as it collapses.

I added one lot tonight. That brings my break even up to 2683 since I established this 5 lot (now 6 lot) position. 2683 was about as high as I thought the retrace would go, but I've learned from experience that bear market rallies, when they come, almost always retrace higher than I think they can. The S&P almost got to the 61.8% retracement today. I didn't think it would get as close as it did, and I'll have to fight hard if it exceeds it because I'm essentially betting that the retrace top is in. It does appear that the Nasdaq 100 reversed today with the outside day down, and it may lead the pack lower.

[aeden]

If you think it did not attacks Billy's heart and Allan's brain I can knit you a antibody sweater.
Trending three models. The mutated virus and some mentally mutilated medical maniacs on parade.
The scrubbed sites are special.
Got not no issues with a few fact based inoculations based on real Science either.
Nature did not like the first release of the thing that caused buildings to be welded shut.
The stop and go market appears not to think to first clean the inside of the cup and the plate,
that the outside also may be clean. The swamp claims more and it will not be washed off.
Sealed like those welded buildings.

[Higgenbotham]

I added one lot tonight. That brings my break even up to 2683 since I established this 5 lot (now 6 lot) position. 2683 was about as high as I thought the retrace would go, but I've learned from experience that bear market rallies, when they come, almost always retrace higher than I think they can. The S&P almost got to the 61.8% retracement today. I didn't think it would get as close as it did, and I'll have to fight hard if it exceeds it because I'm essentially betting that the retrace top is in. It does appear that the Nasdaq 100 reversed today with the outside day down, and it may lead the pack lower.

Had to fight hard all night as the market went higher. Dialed it back to 5 lots and traded $3,500 out of it. Shorting bear market rallies is tough.

[aeden]

I May short but rebalancing will and did shake a few things up. The reflation trade will be brutal. I did nothing but hold and bought disconnects.
Did ok for now. Rolled options forward.
Heart rules the Mind and the Mind rules the body. Bills was the heart and Alan was the mind we almost lost
to this damn virus. It targets all and indeed has shaken up to what is important. They were young and good health so we
can cut the nonsense on what the virus did target which was everything internal also.
We quarantined and tested so we can see the kids and gran-kids for now.
The supply line has help and we adapted to run enough to fill orders and shut down to repair
so our shutdown will less this fall.
We give thanks to tough decisions tho somewhat to a hard start in the march sweeps and our Team adapted in a majority view.

Sat Apr 09, 2016 1:20 pm Jidoka is a quality concept that means "stop everything" whenever an error occurs. It is controlling quality at the source. Instead of using inspectors to find problems someone else created, the worker is his own inspector, responsible for his/her own quality. When an error or defect is discovered, the worker has the authority and the responsibility to halt the production process. Sogo shosha groups are sufficiently diversified to withstand periodic downturns.

I leaned much and some listened as did myself.
The Americans let to many important internal supply chains go. I blame Management and the usual suspects we know here.
Management failed. We just pointed out what was coming.
I did not short March or April. We will see what May brings other than stiff necks to date.
We took some serious hits but survived.

[richard5za]

I added one lot tonight. That brings my break even up to 2683 since I established this 5 lot (now 6 lot) position. 2683 was about as high as I thought the retrace would go, but I've learned from experience that bear market rallies, when they come, almost always retrace higher than I think they can. The S&P almost got to the 61.8% retracement today. I didn't think it would get as close as it did, and I'll have to fight hard if it exceeds it because I'm essentially betting that the retrace top is in. It does appear that the Nasdaq 100 reversed today with the outside day down, and it may lead the pack lower.

Had to fight hard all night as the market went higher. Dialed it back to 5 lots and traded $3,500 out of it. Shorting bear market rallies is tough.

I think you did well

[richard5za]

This week I recovered almost all of the 34 point loss noted here. I ended the week short 5 lots at an average 2643.

As noted earlier, I will not be adding until the market establishes a downtrend. That's not my usual style, but I'm guessing the next downtrend could be a crash and when all is said and done, it won't be the 50 or so points that matters, but being on as much as you can be on as it collapses.

I added one lot tonight. That brings my break even up to 2683 since I established this 5 lot (now 6 lot) position. 2683 was about as high as I thought the retrace would go, but I've learned from experience that bear market rallies, when they come, almost always retrace higher than I think they can. The S&P almost got to the 61.8% retracement today. I didn't think it would get as close as it did, and I'll have to fight hard if it exceeds it because I'm essentially betting that the retrace top is in. It does appear that the Nasdaq 100 reversed today with the outside day down, and it may lead the pack lower.

S7P 500 is 2923 as I write this. My hunch is that this week will be the top somewhere in the 2900's. So if this week is the top that makes May 18 a good possibility for the crash

[vincecate]

S7P 500 is 2923 as I write this. My hunch is that this week will be the top somewhere in the 2900's. So if this week is the top that makes May 18 a good possibility for the crash

Kind of incredible that while the world economy is shut down the S&P has gone up 30% from low. I just don't think printing money will fix things that well or devalue the currency before people need to sell to buy food. Long term the rate they are printing must devalue the currency, but I don't think it will hold off the crash. Exciting ride.

Feels like a short squeeze blow off today.

[Higgenbotham]

I finally added one ES at 2922 today. Now short 6. I will hold this one, even if the ES goes higher.



Sold one more at 2940. Now short 7. Covered this one at 2936. Ended the day short 6.

I don't want to clog up the board with too much of this kind of detail. This is the process I will continue. The idea is to accumulate shorts but at the same time make sure The 97th Percentile and the Fed can't kill me off with fake news and counterfeit money before this pile of shit they've created collapses, which it will.

[richard5za]

I finally added one ES at 2922 today. Now short 6. I will hold this one, even if the ES goes higher.



Sold one more at 2940. Now short 7. Covered this one at 2936. Ended the day short 6.

I don't want to clog up the board with too much of this kind of detail. This is the process I will continue. The idea is to accumulate shorts but at the same time make sure The 97th Percentile and the Fed can't kill me off with fake news and counterfeit money before this pile of shit they've created collapses, which it will.

On the basis of "gut feel" I strongly suspect that Wednesday 29th April was the secondary peak. There's no science to this "gut feel"except that its a bit above the 61.8 retracement and Thursday seems to be losing a bullish bravado that drove Wednesday. OK so give it one and a half to three weeks for the secondary crash; 11 or 18 May. BUT reality might be sinking into investors heads faster than I think and could fester around the brain causing acute discomfort this weekend and create a crash Monday 4 May. Lets wait and see!