Do you think the American government would seize gold held overseas by US citizens? Biden scares the daylights out of me. He really doesn't realize that his polcies will destroy us.
If the petrodollar collapses, not only could the government seize gold held overseas, it could also seize gold held on US soil. It would be the largest mass asset confiscation in history.
And you know what? Should something like that happen, it could well seal our fate. It would be the straw that breaks the camel's back for many ordinary Americans. They will become so angry at our government that they will refuse to fight for America when war breaks out with China. Some may even join the PLA, perhaps in hopes that China will invade the US, oust Washington, and install a new regime that is loyal to China but nonetheless more competent than Washington.
Toilet paper, baby care products, soft drinks and many other everyday products are about to get more expensive.
Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark and Coca-Cola have all warned that they'll raise prices on many of their products as raw material costs rise. Plastic, paper, sugar, grain and other commodities are all getting more expensive as demand outpaces supply. Companies are also paying more for shipping as fuel costs rise and ports experience longer delays because of congestion.
Yesterday we explained why with prices already soaring, global inflation was about to go into overdrive as the leading food price indicator that is the Bloomberg Agri spot index hit the highest level in six years.
John, you've been crying wolf about deflation for twenty years. Looks like a lion is coming instead.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
What are the core trends?
Inflation Mar 2001 to Mar 2011:
26.83%
Inflation Mar 2011 to Mar 2021:
18.53%
Let's extrapolate this long term trend:
Mar 2021 to Mar 2031:
10.23%
Mar 2031 to Mar 2041
1.93%
We will still be having (slow) inflation twenty years from now, assuming World War Three, the Singularity, First Contact or some other surprise doesn't happen. I'll be older than you before deflation. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Snarky remarks are the best you can do?
CPI is actually conservative (see http://www.shadowstats.com/ ) so I am giving you every benefit, and you have still been wrong for twenty years. You keep saying you are more infallible than the Pope, and I reserved judgement at first. But in economics (I don't know enought about geopolitics to comment) you have been calling for deflation and not getting it.
I wish I had a time machine to go back and tell you what the CPI would be now and document your reply.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Poll: Majority of French Agree With Military Generals That the Country is Heading Towards “Civil War”
Nearly half want the military to be sent into multicultural banlieues to restore order.
A new poll has found that a majority of French people support the sentiments expressed in a letter signed by active duty and retired members of the military warning that the country is heading towards a “civil war” caused by failed multiculturalism and attacks on French identity.
Around 1,000 servicemembers signed the letter, including 20 retired generals, warning President Emmanuel Macron of “several deadly dangers” threatening France, including “Islamism and the hordes of the banlieue,” a reference to the fractured suburbs around major cities with high crime and immigrant populations.
The signatories also blame the “anti-racism” movement for seeking to create a “racial war” by attacking symbols of French cultural cohesion and identity, including statues.
The letter blames “fanatic partisans” for seeking to create divisions within communities that have created a vacuum for Islamists to assert their control.
“The hour is grave, France is in peril,” states the letter, which was published on 21 April – the 60th anniversary of a failed coup d’état.
The military servicemembers warn that the treatment of the “gilets jaunes” or yellow vest protesters exemplifies how the government has used the police “as proxy agents and scapegoats” for brutal oppression.
“It is no longer the time to procrastinate, otherwise tomorrow civil war will put an end to this growing chaos and deaths – for which you will be responsible – with numbers in the thousands,” the letter concludes.
Despite the letter being condemned by the government and the media, a new poll has found that a majority of the French people agree with its substance.
A survey by Harris Interactive found that 58% of respondents “support the words of the soldiers,” reports Valeurs.
A clear majority – 84% – said violence was increasing in society and 73% thought the country was disintegrating. Almost three quarters think the “anti-racism” movement is having the opposite impact and making race relations worse.
Almost half (49%) also think that the military should be sent in to occupy problem areas, “which would act on its own to restore order.”
Only one in three respondents said the signatories should be punished, despite the minister in charge of the armed forces, Florence Parly, indicating that active duty members would face sanction.
“Two immutable principles guide the action of members of the military with regard to politics: neutrality and loyalty,” tweeted Parly.
Has anyone else here heard anything about this from other sources?
John, I'm of the opinion that we're headed for neither an inflationary crisis nor a deflationary crisis, but rather something else that is both similar and different to both... and also arguably much worse than either.
I don't know what to call it, because it's an economic event that has never before happened in our history. In fact, it wasn't even possible for something like it to happen until the petrodollar was created.
Here's how I think it will play out:
Something happens that causes the petrodollar to collapse. It could be a major war in the Middle East, the collapse of the Saudi regime, the collapse of Saudi-American relations, or a major discovery or technology that renders Saudi oil obsolete.
With the petrodollar gone, the price of pretty much everything quadruples overnight in order to reflect the actual volume of the money supply.
Because this inflation is a response to a money supply that was printed years ago, as opposed to yesterday, people won't have immediate access to large amounts of dollars to keep up with rising prices like they would during a hyperinflationary event. Instead of wiping out their debt and still being able to eat as long as they kept collecting dollars, they would remain in debt and starve.
Because nobody is able to buy anything anymore, many businesses will start taking massive losses. Those that aren't fortunate enough to have lots of reserve cash on hand will be forced to close and/or declare bankruptcy, because again, nobody's able to buy anything. They won't be able to sell their assets for cash like they would be during a "normal" economic crisis.
Meanwhile, creditors will start freaking out. Inflation, but borrowers can't pay off their debts? Many creditors won't know how to respond to this crisis, and inevitably will make reckless decisions that will only make things worse.
The government won't know what to do either. If it prints more money, the crisis will become hyperinflationary. If it doesn't, it could default on its own debts. Meanwhile, it will be scrambling to find a new hard asset to back the dollar in order (1) keep it stable and (2) figure out how much the money supply can be decreased without causing a deflationary crisis. Depending on what the government chooses, this may or may not result in it resorting to mass asset confiscation, perhaps without compensation for those affected.
With a massive increase in prices, consumption having come to a near-complete halt, businesses failing left and right, the banking system plagued with indecision, and government fiscal policy falling apart at the seams, Wall Street will be extremely scared, to the point where the stock market crashes.
The stock market crash will drive down prices, but with massive inflation and massive deflation occurring literally back to back, there won't be a recovery any time soon...
In sum, a crisis that has all the worst aspects of both inflation and deflation rolled into one.
Poll: Majority of French Agree With Military Generals That the Country is Heading Towards “Civil War”
Nearly half want the military to be sent into multicultural banlieues to restore order.
A new poll has found that a majority of French people support the sentiments expressed in a letter signed by active duty and retired members of the military warning that the country is heading towards a “civil war” caused by failed multiculturalism and attacks on French identity.
Around 1,000 servicemembers signed the letter, including 20 retired generals, warning President Emmanuel Macron of “several deadly dangers” threatening France, including “Islamism and the hordes of the banlieue,” a reference to the fractured suburbs around major cities with high crime and immigrant populations.
The signatories also blame the “anti-racism” movement for seeking to create a “racial war” by attacking symbols of French cultural cohesion and identity, including statues.
The letter blames “fanatic partisans” for seeking to create divisions within communities that have created a vacuum for Islamists to assert their control.
“The hour is grave, France is in peril,” states the letter, which was published on 21 April – the 60th anniversary of a failed coup d’état.
The military servicemembers warn that the treatment of the “gilets jaunes” or yellow vest protesters exemplifies how the government has used the police “as proxy agents and scapegoats” for brutal oppression.
“It is no longer the time to procrastinate, otherwise tomorrow civil war will put an end to this growing chaos and deaths – for which you will be responsible – with numbers in the thousands,” the letter concludes.
Despite the letter being condemned by the government and the media, a new poll has found that a majority of the French people agree with its substance.
A survey by Harris Interactive found that 58% of respondents “support the words of the soldiers,” reports Valeurs.
A clear majority – 84% – said violence was increasing in society and 73% thought the country was disintegrating. Almost three quarters think the “anti-racism” movement is having the opposite impact and making race relations worse.
Almost half (49%) also think that the military should be sent in to occupy problem areas, “which would act on its own to restore order.”
Only one in three respondents said the signatories should be punished, despite the minister in charge of the armed forces, Florence Parly, indicating that active duty members would face sanction.
“Two immutable principles guide the action of members of the military with regard to politics: neutrality and loyalty,” tweeted Parly.
Has anyone else here heard anything about this from other sources?
It's big news in Europe, but I haven't heard anything of it in the American press.
