Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
FullMoon
Posts: 1018
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: WAR

Post by FullMoon »

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:42 am
jmparret wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:34 pm This video is fairly long but can be listened to at 2x speed and still understood. He talks about new technology for the US and china may attack because of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-rPZsD50M

Joe
Summary please, I can't sit through it all right now.
It's surprisingly similar to analysis you find here. Listening to it 2x speed worked just fine. Mentioned Chi Hao Tian and Chinese dilemma with the US. Taking out the US gives them immediate global domination. But using nuclear kills the goose so no golden egg. Biological was proposed as our weaknesses have been exposed.
FullMoon
Posts: 1018
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: WAR

Post by FullMoon »

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:42 am
jmparret wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:34 pm This video is fairly long but can be listened to at 2x speed and still understood. He talks about new technology for the US and china may attack because of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-rPZsD50M

Joe
Summary please, I can't sit through it all right now.
Also he says the US has new, game changing weapons in development which will put Chinese back many decades, therefore any attack plans must occur soon otherwise they'll become irrelevant.
I haven't heard this before, anywhere, so I don't know what to think about it
123

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by 123 »

Guest wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:09 am
Guest wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:01 am
thomasglee wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:46 am

No sir, I live in a community. A community where I grew up. I've known many of the people here my entire life. So I'm not alone. Plus I have my God and my family. You're the coward that needs others to fight your battles for you. I was an infantryman. I've seen war. I've experienced death up front and close. You sir, have no point of view that holds any validity with me. You've made assumptions that you know nothing about. You are the fool.
I've known war too. So fuck you.
Let add that after two wars I have a damaged hand and knee, and brain damage has left me partially blind. AND I still won't hide when the Chinese attack.

FUCK YOU!
The irony of this is overwhelming. One veteran, able bodied, who has given up on America and a shot up veteran who is disabled that is still willing to defend America, but (probably) can't. This seems symbolic of America now. The able bodied would rather loot and burn and destroy the country while the patriotic do nothing (for whatever reason). I can't find the words to describe how I feel. I'm not good with them. But I think that this is how America will fall. I can't imagine that a defeated and occupied America will be a better place to live.
jmparret
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:16 am

Re: WAR

Post by jmparret »

FullMoon wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:46 am
Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:42 am
jmparret wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:34 pm This video is fairly long but can be listened to at 2x speed and still understood. He talks about new technology for the US and china may attack because of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-rPZsD50M

Joe
Summary please, I can't sit through it all right now.
Also he says the US has new, game changing weapons in development which will put Chinese back many decades, therefore any attack plans must occur soon otherwise they'll become irrelevant.
I haven't heard this before, anywhere, so I don't know what to think about it
Thanks FullMoon, That new weapon was very interesting. I read something else where Einstein went to see Roswell and all the government (UFO) stuff.
I also am not sure about that technology and i do not know the speak that well.
Joe
Navigator
Posts: 1030
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

xeraphim1x wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:40 pm I was reading an article on another site which brought up something I really hadn't considered. This would be in relation to the news that China has been adding additional ICBM silos.

As we know, the US has two site for Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) missiles which are intended to stop strikes from a rogue state. There are currently 44 interceptors in total. Not too scary for China/Russia, right? Well, it's not GBI that's really the issue even though the US could probably afford to buy more of them than China/Russia could buy additional ICBMs. {As a side note, the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) is in development and one of the ideas is to have it lift multiple kill vehicles on each booster. Instead of one KKV per interceptor, you might get 10 of them. Nifty, huh? }

No, the real problem is the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense System and the missiles used with it. The SM-3 has been demonstrated as being able to hit an incoming warhead. Please note the 2008 destruction of a satellite traveling at ICBM+ speeds. And that was with the SM-3 Block IA which has been superseded by Block IB and now II-A. Block IIA missiles have successfully intercepted both ICBM and SLBM targets. Potentially useful in the future is the block IB version of the SM-6 which would, admittedly, have less range, but be notably less expensive.

Why is this a problem for China/Russia? As of 2017 there were 33 ships equipped with AEGIS BMD with another 1-2 ships rolling off the lines every year. By 2040 there could be 70-80 such vessels. That's not including other countries such as Japan which already has 4 ships and another 2 being built. We don't know how many SM-3 each will carry, but Burke class destroyers have 90+ VLS cells and USN production orders in 2016 was estimated to be 350 block IIA. Now, USN ships are normally dispersed all around the world, but they do spend a lot of time in their home ports. Just three different locations, one East Coast, One West coast, one Gulf coast, would provide protection for the entire continental United States. Much of the US East of the Mississippi would have double coverage while part of the Mid West would have triple coverage. Hawaii has an experimental AEGIS Ashore site which could be brought up to full operational status fairly quickly. (Japan was going to build such sites, but due to civilian complaints they'll build AEGIS destroyers instead.) Within 10-15 years the US could have 400-700 interceptors in/near US territory or capable of being moved there quickly. (Ships are relatively faster to relocate than silos).

Huh. That's something that doesn't get much air time. But, you might say, Russia and China have thousands of warheads and can easily swamp and protection the US might put up. Well, maybe not. The New Start treaty brings the US and Russia down to about 1,500 warheads total. Of those, you'll always have to assume that some just won't work. Missiles are never perfect; Russian ones even less so. If you figure 50% is a reasonable figure, that's getting close to 1:1 with the number of interceptors. Chinese missiles are most likely worse than Russian ones and China has fewer than Russia. In fact, it's entirely possible that the US and Japan could soon have more interceptors than China has deployable platforms.

China has started MIRVing DF-5 ICBMs as a way to counter this capability and it appears they are both building additional SSBNs and additional silos for ICBMs. Russia seems to be hoping that hypersonic missiles will serve as a sufficient deterrent; it's unknown how well SM-3/SM-6 will work against those. The question may end up being: Can the US/allies build interceptor missiles cheaper and in greater numbers than adversaries can build ICBMs/other deliver systems? SM-3 is about $12 million a piece but it really isn't in mass production. A Minuteman III has a modern cost of about $20 million though the new US ICBM (GBSD) is expected to be more expensive. Chinese/Russian ICBMs may be cheaper, or may be equivalent in cost.

I'm not positing that the US is or could be invulnerable to nuclear attack from China/Russia, but it appears that there could be enough ambiguity than those states might seriously question whether their arsenals would be sufficient to penetrate a US shield. As the same time, China has no ABM defenses while Russia is limited to the A-135 system which defend only Moscow plus whatever abilities S-500 might have, when if ever becomes operational. It is something to think about since US foes undoubtedly are.
Very good, and, from my POV, very optimistic information. Thanks.

Can you give any insight into the new weapons under development that others are alluding to lately?
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Bob Butler
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Long Range Missiles

Post by Bob Butler »

FullMoon wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:46 amAlso he says the US has new, game changing weapons in development which will put Chinese back many decades, therefore any attack plans must occur soon otherwise they'll become irrelevant. I haven't heard this before, anywhere, so I don't know what to think about it
As I've heard it, there was a Cold War era weapons treaty primarily between Russia and the US that forbade further development of long range missiles. China's carrier killer missiles thus cannot until recently be answered with similar missiles. However, the treaty is running down. The long range missile difference is due to go away. This may be what you have heard about.
Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:31 am
xeraphim1x wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:40 pm I'm not positing that the US is or could be invulnerable to nuclear attack from China/Russia, but it appears that there could be enough ambiguity than those states might seriously question whether their arsenals would be sufficient to penetrate a US shield. As the same time, China has no ABM defenses while Russia is limited to the A-135 system which defend only Moscow plus whatever abilities S-500 might have, when if ever becomes operational. It is something to think about since US foes undoubtedly are.
Is the idea that they intercept and blow up ICBMs over the Pacific Ocean?
For ICBMs SM-3 has intercept ranges in both the boost and descent phases. The former would be best since you have a big hot exhaust plume to home in on and all the warheads/penetration aids are still attached to the bus, but most land based missiles are out of reach or barely in reach of sea based launchers. So for the most part we're talking about the re-entry phase. North Korea is the main exception since we have Burke class destroyers close enough to fire at anything launched from there.

GBI has greater intercept range, but due to siting would not be able to attack in the boost phase.
Xeraphim1

Re: Long Range Missiles

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Bob Butler wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:04 pm
FullMoon wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:46 amAlso he says the US has new, game changing weapons in development which will put Chinese back many decades, therefore any attack plans must occur soon otherwise they'll become irrelevant. I haven't heard this before, anywhere, so I don't know what to think about it
As I've heard it, there was a Cold War era weapons treaty primarily between Russia and the US that forbade further development of long range missiles. China's carrier killer missiles thus cannot until recently be answered with similar missiles. However, the treaty is running down. The long range missile difference is due to go away. This may be what you have heard about.
The US has left the IRBM treaty so there are much longer ranged missiles in the works. Search for Long Range Precision Fires.

The Army recently received the first hardware for Long Range Hypersonic Weapon, AKA, “Dark Eagle.” Notably this doesn't include the missiles themselves which are due next year, but troops are learning how to use the TELs and control equipment. This system has a range of around 1,700 miles.
tim
Posts: 1381
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: WAR

Post by tim »

jmparret wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:34 pm This video is fairly long but can be listened to at 2x speed and still understood. He talks about new technology for the US and china may attack because of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-rPZsD50M

Joe
Great video thanks for sharing.

1:11:10 the topic is about how people can prepare
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5
Guest

Re: WAR

Post by Guest »

tim wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:24 pm
jmparret wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:34 pm This video is fairly long but can be listened to at 2x speed and still understood. He talks about new technology for the US and china may attack because of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO-rPZsD50M

Joe
Great video thanks for sharing.

1:11:10 the topic is about how people can prepare
Grand solar minimum, UFO revelations and UFO technology, contact with aliens, secret plans between Russia and China going back to 1991? No, this video is filled with conspiracy theories and quackery. This video is nuts! Why not just watch Cliff High or Alex Jones? :roll: :lol: :D
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